Daily Economic Commentary: Canada

Finally, a rally! The Loonie was able to make a bit of headway against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as USD/CAD hit a high of 1.0342 then tumbled to a low of 1.0287. Will the pair keep heading lower or will it stay stuck inside consolidation?

Data from Canada was actually weaker than expected on Friday, with the Ivey PMI falling short of the estimated rise from 51.0 to 52.6 and landing at 51.9 instead. Of course, an increase still reflects stronger expansion in Canada’s manufacturing sector, and it also helped the Loonie that dollar weakness was the theme for Friday.

For today, building permits are up for release from Canada and a decline of 2.4% is expected to follow the previous month’s 20.7% jump. A weaker than expected reading might force the Loonie to return some of its recent gains, so watch out for the actual release of this report at 1:30 pm GMT.

The Loonie started the week on the wrong side of the charts as a report from Canada came in waaaay weaker than expected. USD/CAD popped up to a high at 1.0335 before it settled with a 24-pip gain.

The Loonie missed the dollar selloff party when Canada’s building permits reported a ridiculous 21.2% decline for the month of August, which is a stark contrast from its record high growth of 21.4% in July. Apparently, there was a significant decline in commercial projects such as retail projects and office buildings.

Will the housing starts numbers at 12:15 pm GMT be just as week? More importantly, will Canada’s trade balance report at 12:30 pm GMT save the day for the Loonie? Both reports are expected to print slightly weaker numbers, but keep an eye out for any surprises!

It looks like USD/CAD finally made up its mind! The pair had been stuck in a range for quite some time now, but it appears to have broken to the upside towards the end of the U.S. session. USD/CAD jumped from a low of 1.0307 to a high of 1.0374.

Canada’s trade balance came in weaker than expected, with the report showing a 1.3 billion CAD deficit instead of the estimated 0.7 billion CAD shortfall. To make things worse, the previous month’s figure was revised from the initially reported 0.9 billion CAD deficit to 1.2 billion CAD, reflecting a downturn in trade activity.

Housing starts, on the other hand, came in better than expected. The actual figure climbed from 184K to 194K, outpacing the consensus at 175K.

There are no reports lined up from Canada today, as USD/CAD could take its cue from U.S. economic events. Keep your eyes peeled for the FOMC meeting minutes release and for any updates on the U.S. budget impasse. Good luck!

Strike three! USD/CAD popped up for a third day in a row following the dollar strength seen across the board. The pair hit an intraday high at 1.0409 before closing 24 pips higher than its open price.

There weren’t any Canadian data on tap yesterday, so USD/CAD’s price action was mostly caused by dollar sentiment. And as I pointed out in my USD update, Janet Yellen’s nomination as the next Fed head provided enough support for the Greenback.

Only the National House Price Index at 12:30 pm GMT is scheduled for release today, so y’all better watch the news wires closely for reports that might affect appetite for the high-yielding comdolls!

The Loonie was off to a weak start but it seems that 1.0400 held like a boss for USD/CAD, as the pair turned after hitting that resistance area. Could the Loonie be in for more gains today?

Data from Canada was weaker than expected again, as the new housing price index printed a 0.1% uptick versus the estimate of a 0.3% increase. This was also weaker compared to the previous month’s 0.2% rise, hinting that the housing sector in Canada isn’t doing so well.

For today, jobs data is up for release so we should see more volatility among Loonie pairs. After increasing by 59.2K in August, hiring is expected to slow down to 15.3K for September. Still, this might be enough to keep the jobless rate at 7.1%, as a better than expected reading might allow the Loonie to recover. Watch out for the actual release at 1:30 pm GMT.

VICTORY! The Loonie clobbered the Greenback last Friday after a Canadian report boosted the currency’s demand. USD/CAD closed 42 pips lower than its open price after dropping to an intraday low of 1.0340. Booyah!

Last Friday’s Canadian employment numbers certainly made it easy for the bulls to attack. For one thing, the unemployment rate dropped from 7.1% to 6.9%. 11,900 workers also found jobs for the month of September, which is just under the 15,300 job increase expectations.

What probably held off more Loonie bears is that the drop in unemployment rate was due to a decrease in the labor market’s participation rate. Still, the latest jobs numbers seem to be doing the trick for now especially since most of the additional jobs for the month are full-time jobs.

Canadian banks are closed for Thanksgiving Day today, so we won’t see any reports from the Great White North. The U.S. is also on a holiday today so we probably won’t see any significant action for USD/CAD today.

It was Thanksgiving Day in Canada, and as with most bank holidays, it was a snooze fest for most of the Canadian Dollar pairs. Despite trading in only a 30 pip range on Monday, CAD gained on the Greenback for the day.

No upcoming Canadian data for Tuesday’s session, so the major market themes (US government shutdown and debt) and the recent positive CA jobs data will most likely provide the fuel for volatility in the short-term.

And you may want to pay attention to the news that the US Energy Information Administration (a major source of oil & gas industry news) had to shutdown as well. This event could provide volatility to the oil and gas markets which, because of their strong correlation, could provide volatility to Canada’s markets like the Loonie.

The Loonie was no match to the dollar’s strength yesterday, as USD/CAD dipped to a low of 1.0331 then rallied all the way up to a high of 1.0392. CAD/JPY slipped below the 95.00 mark and reached a low of 94.43. Can the Canadian dollar bounce back?

There were no reports released from Canada yesterday, as the risk off market environment spurred by the budget and debt debates in the U.S. turned out to be negative for the Canadian currency. After all, the prospect of a U.S. debt default and potential economic slowdown would also have negative repercussions on Canada!

Canadian manufacturing sales are up for release at 1:30 pm GMT and the report is expected to show a 0.3% uptick, following the previous month’s 1.7% increase. A stronger than expected reading might be able to boost the Loonie while a weak report could set the stage for more losses.

Who’s the weakling now?! The USD/CAD made new intraweek lows yesterday and even reached an intraday low at 1.0326. And that’s with Canada popping up a disappointing report!

Yesterday we saw Canada’s manufacturing sales print a 0.2% decline, which is worse than last month’s 1.7% gain and the expected 0.3% uptick. The Loonie traders didn’t mind much though, especially when they’re high from the risk appetite that had been dominating forex price action during the U.S. session.

Let’s see if Canada’s economic report will make any impact today. At 12:30 pm GMT we’ll see the Great White North’s foreign securities purchases. I gotta warn you though, that some U.S. data will also be released around that time. Watch your CAD positions closely in case it moves on anything other than their reaction to Canadian data!

The Loonie’s price action was anything but loony yesterday, as USD/CAD stayed on its southbound path all the way down to the 1.0300 handle. The pair came from a high of 1.0378 then dipped to a low of 1.0280, which means nearly a hundred pips in the bag for the Canadian dollar!

Data from Canada was actually weaker than expected yesterday, as the foreign securities purchases report printed a decline from 6.12 billion CAD to 2.08 billion CAD instead of rising to 7.21 billion CAD. However, the Loonie seemed to ignore this bleak report as it was boosted by risk appetite when the U.S. government finally ended its shutdown.

Canada is set to print its CPI reports at 1:30 pm GMT today and possibly show a 0.2% increase for its core figure and a 0.1% uptick for its headline figure. Stronger than expected data could help the Loonie extend its gains against the dollar but make sure you stay on your toes for profit-taking towards the end of the trading day.

It ends at two! The Loonie failed to have a triple combo against the Greenback last Friday as Canada’s CPI mostly came in within expectations. USD/CAD even ended the day 3 pips higher than its open price after hitting an intraday low at 1.0277. Yikes!

Last Friday Canada’s headline CPI report came in at 0.2% when analysts were only expecting a 0.1% growth. The core figure also printed at 0.2%, which is in line with investor expectations and last month’s growth.

Will the Loonie get any help with this week’s data? On tap for today is Canada’s wholesale sales numbers at 12:30 pm GMT, followed by the retail sales numbers tomorrow at the same time as the U.S. NFP report. The big guns will come out on Wednesday when the BOC releases its monetary policy decision with a press conference.

Any of the events above could significantly affect the Loonie’s price action, so don’t discount those events when looking for trade ideas this week!

Road bump! USD/CAD couldn’t seem to go any further past the 1.0300 major psychological level, as the pair kept bouncing from this support zone yesterday. USD/CAD is still consolidating around this area in the meantime, waiting for a stronger push from today’s set of data.

Canada’s wholesale sales report printed a 0.5% increase for August, slightly lower than the consensus of a 0.6% rise. The good news was that the previous month’s figure was revised up from 1.5% to 1.7%, hinting at stronger consumer spending down the line.

Canada is set to report its retail sales figures at 1:30 pm GMT today and possibly show a 0.2% uptick for the core figure and a 0.3% increase in its headline figure. These would be slightly weaker than the previous 0.6% uptick in headline retail sales and the 1.0% rise in core retail sales. Better than expected data could be enough to provide support or even a boost for the Loonie.

A bigger market mover could be the U.S. non-farm payrolls release also at 1:30 pm GMT. A stronger increase in hiring of 182K is projected for September, which should be enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 7.3%, but a weaker than expected reading might trigger a selloff for USD/CAD.

Mixed retail sales report? No problem! The Loonie bulls didn’t get left out of the risk rally yesterday despite the release of mixed data from Canada. USD/CAD closed 13 pips below its open price after hitting an intraday low at 1.0270.

Canada’s headline retail sales numbers showed a 0.2% growth in September, which is only slightly lower than the previous month’s 0.5% growth. The core figure also gave the Loonie bulls good vibes when it printed at 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.2% uptick.

The Loonie bulls and bears better not pack up yet! Today’s a big day for the Bank of Canada as they’re scheduled to release their monetary policy decision at 2:00 pm GMT, followed by a monetary policy report at 2:30 pm GMT and a press conference at 3:15 pm GMT.

Bet you didn’t see that one coming, did you? Thanks to the downbeat BOC rate statement, USD/CAD staged a strong rally towards the 1.0400 handle in yesterday’s New York session. The pair broke above its consolidation around 1.0300 and reached a high of 1.0398. Can it go for more gains today?

Although the BOC kept monetary policy unchanged as expected, many were surprised to find out that the Canadian central bank dropped its bias to hike interest rates. In fact, BOC officials even downgraded their growth forecasts for this year and the next couple of years!

With no reports due from Canada today, the Loonie might keep sliding down on the downbeat BOC outlook. Do watch out for data from the U.S. if you’re planning on trading USD/CAD today!

The Loonie continued to drop like a hot potato against its counterparts as comdoll aversion hit the already weak Canadian dollar. USD/CAD popped by another 42 pips after hitting an intraday high at 1.0439.

Canada might not have released any economic data yesterday, but traders sure didn’t forget that the BOC recently dropped its hawkish stance. To make matters worse, the markets were also absorbed with a bit of comdoll aversion yesterday.

We won’t be seeing any more data from the Great White North for the rest of the week. This means attention on the U.S. reports due today as well as any economic news that might affect the appetite for the comdolls!

What a loser! The Loonie got bullied by its major counterparts on Friday, pushing USD/CAD way past the 1.0400 handle to a high of 1.0462. CAD/JPY was sold off below the 93.00 handle but managed to start this week off at an open price of 93.56.

Although there were no reports released from Canada last Friday, the Canadian currency saw a lot of selling action thanks to the downbeat sentiment from the recent BOC monetary policy announcement. Recall that the BOC dropped its tightening bias when it said that there are still plenty of external and internal economic risks, which resulted to a sharp Loonie selloff.

There are no reports due from Canada today so the Loonie might have nothing to hang on to when it comes to finding support. Do stay tuned for data from the U.S. if you’re trading USD/CAD though!

Well done, Loonie bulls! While other major currencies were nursing losses against the dollar and the yen, the Loonie put up a good fight with USD/CAD and USD/JPY closing near its open prices. What’s up with that?

Well, it certainly didn’t hurt that oil prices ticked higher yesterday. Not only that, but the Loonie bears might have exhausted their game last week when they aggressively pulled the Loonie lower.

At 1:30 pm GMT today we’ll see the raw materials price index as well as the prices of goods sold my manufacturers. If those reports aren’t big enough for ya, then you might want to wait for BOC Governor Stephen Poloz’ speech at 5:00 pm GMT. The BOC recently shed its hawkish feathers so it would be interesting to see if Poloz will take another step at talking down their currency!

I guess the Loonie needed some air, as the Canadian currency took a quick break from its recent dives. USD/CAD edged to a low of 1.0427 while CAD/JPY bounced from the 93.50 area. Will the Loonie resume its selloff today?

Only medium-tier inflation reports were released from Canada yesterday and both came in weaker than expected. The RMPI (raw materials price index) showed a 1.5% decline while the IPPI (industrial product price index) had a 0.3% drop.

There are no reports due from the Canadian economy for today so the Loonie might move to the tune of risk sentiment for the rest of the trading day. Do watch out for the FOMC statement if you’re trading USD/CAD!

Aaand the losses continue! The Loonie dropped for another day against the Greenback as USD/CAD capped the day 16 pips higher than its open price. Did this have anything to do with Canadian reports?

Not really. We didn’t see any economic data from the Great White North, so USD/CAD’s price action was all on the dollar. As I mentioned in my USD update, the Fed’s lack of reference to a delay in its taper plans was enough to boost the dollar across the board.

Canada won’t be empty-handed in terms of economic reports as the monthly GDP is due at 1:30 pm GMT. Market players are estimating a 0.2% growth after last month’s 0.6% reading. A downside surprise would support the BOC’s move to drop its hawkish bias, so watch your Loonie setups closely!

What a recovery by the Loonie! USD/CAD was unable to keep up its rallies yesterday, as the Canadian dollar’s gains pushed the pair down from a high of 1.0487 to a low of 1.0418. CAD/JPY also saw its share of gains, as the pair climbed above the 94.00 mark. Can the Loonie keep it up?

Canada’s monthly GDP for August showed a stronger than expected 0.3% increase versus the estimate of a 0.2% uptick. However, the August figure is still weaker than the previous month’s 0.6% growth, suggesting that the Canadian economy could be slowing down. Despite that, Canada’s annual growth figure now stands at 2%, which is its fastest pace of increase since July 2012. Not bad!

There are no reports due from Canada today so it will be interesting to see whether the Loonie can be able to hold on to its gains or not. If you’re trading USD/CAD, don’t forget to keep tabs on the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI release during the New York session.