Daily Economic Commentary: Switzerland

The Swissy bulls took advantage of the dollar’s weakness in yesterdays trading rounds, bring down the USDCHF pair to monthly lows. My question is, will the 1.0500 handle hold?

Yesterday, the KOF economic barometer was released, printing a slightly better than expected reading. The index posted a score of 1.93, while consensus was for a score of 1.91. This indicates that economy is expected to pick up in the next 6 months. It will be interesting to see how traders trade the franc in coming months, given the recent developments in the euro zone.

Remember, one reason why the franc has appreciated as of late is because of euro weakness. As investors became scared to invest in euro zone assets, they decided to move their funds into Swiss financial assets. If more debt concerns prop up in the euro zone, this could benefit the franc down the line.

Later today, the SVME purchasing managers index is due at 7:30 am GMT. The index measures business sentiment amongst Swissy businessmen. Scores above 50.0 indicate expansion while scores below 50.0 suggest contraction. The index is expected to post a score of 58.7, which would be an improvement over the last month’s reading of 57.4.

The Swissy got trampled on during the greenback’s NFP parade last Friday, pushing the USDCHF to a high of 1.0644 during the US session. Meanwhile, the EURCHF spiked back to the 1.4400 area as SNB officials commented on the recent appreciation of the Swissy.

After dipping to a low of 1.4143 last week, the EURCHF bounced up when SNB board member Jean-Pierre Danthine announced that the central bank will take measures to prevent the excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc. He added that the SNB has the tools to achieve exchange rate stability, leading many to think that the central bank could continue to flood the markets with francs to keep its value from rising.

On the economic front, Switzerland is set to release a few top-tier reports this week. It will report its CPI on Tuesday 7:15 am GMT and could print another 0.1% increase in price levels for March.

On Wednesday, Switzerland will report its retail sales figure for the month of February. An annualized 3.8% rise is expected, which is less than the 4.4% growth seen in January. A weaker than expected figure could cause the Swissy to lose more ground against the USD and EUR.

Switzerland will release its unemployment rate on Thursday 5:45 am GMT. Their jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% during the month of March, implying that their labor market has yet to show some improvements.

No economic reports are due from Switzerland on Friday but SNB board member Danthine is scheduled to deliver a speech at 12:00 pm GMT. If he gives another round of comments concerning the franc’s appreciation, the EURCHF could spike even higher while the USDCHF could continue its recent rally. Bear in mind that the US has a bunch of high-impact reports also due this week and these are the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, pending home sales, and FOMC minutes. Be careful out there!

Pretty slow day for trading, as European traders were off enjoying the holidays, wining and dining. The USDCHF traded within a range of just 60 pips, closing 11 pips higher at 1.0626.

At 7:15 am GMT, the Swiss consumer price index is scheduled for release. It is expected that prices rose by 0.1% in March. Still, this probably won’t have too much an effect on the markets. Be on the lookout though, for some strong moves as European traders come back from the long weekend. We might see more follow through in the equities markets, and possibly more dollar buying as traders reposition themselves after last Friday’s US unemployment report.

The Swissy turned out to be one of the biggest losers in yesterday’s trading session. The USCHF ended the US trading session 1.0691, 70 pips higher from its opening price during the Asian session.

Switzerland’s consumer price index (0.1% for March) yesterday came in line with expectations but news from Greece once again indirectly pulled the Swissy down. Apparently, rumor broke out that Greek officials wanted to renegotiate the IMF/EU joint aid plan because the rules were too tough for them. At the end of the day, however, the rumors proved to be nothing but rumors when a Greek official denied the news.

Switzerland’s economic cupboard only offers the retail sales report at 7:15 am GMT. It is predicted to show that sales rose 3.8% in February, slightly lower than the 4.4% growth seen the month before. If the actual figure comes in higher, the Swissy would probably get some buying support. On the other hand, if the actual figure turns out to be weaker than expected, the USDCHF could retest resistance at yesterday’s highs.

The USDCHF rose once again, as the combination of poor Swiss data and risk aversion pushed the pair higher. The pair continued its upward trek, closing yesterday at 1.0733.

Swiss retail sales figures came in slightly disappointing, as they failed to meet consensus of a 3.8% rise last February. Retail sales growth was at just 3.2% on an annualized basis. This led to more franc weakness, allowing the USDCHF to push through the previous day’s highs.

No high impact reports coming out today, but watch out for the ECB and BOE statements due during the European session. Chances are, we’ll probably see tons of volatility, so be careful! You don’t want to get smothered by an avalanche of strong moves!

Thanks to the round of risk appetite late in the US session, the Swiss franc was able to regain the ground it lost early in the day. The USDCHF ended the day at 1.0738, just four pips higher from its Asian session open price.

Yesterday, Switzerland’s unemployment report revealed that joblessness in the country from 4.4% in February to 4.2% in March as approximately 7,000 workers were newly hired during the month. However, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate still held steady at 4.1% in March as expected.

No economic reports are due from Switzerland today but stay tuned for SNB Governing Board Member Jean-Pierre Danthine’s speech at 12:00 pm GMT. Last month, Danthine refused to comment on the hot topic that is the possibility of central bank intervention given the Swiss franc’s appreciation. Instead, he chose to focus on confirming that the SNB’s current monetary policy is appropriate for the present market conditions. If he echoes the same remarks during his speech tomorrow, the Swissy could have an opportunity to pare its recent losses.

What a way to close to week! The Swissy beat the greenback to a pulp to end the week on a high note. The USDCHF fell to and settled at 1.0657 from 1.0738.

Most anti-dollars like the Swissy rallied in last Friday’s session when a report from Reuters showed that top officials in the euro zone have already agreed on an aid plan for Greece.

This week is a little bit bare for Switzerland with only the release of its March PPI on Friday. Producer prices in Switzerland are seen to have gained by 0.2% in March after dropping by 0.3% in the month prior. A gain in PPI could reflect in the country’s inflation as well since most increases in input prices are usually transferred to consumers. A rise in the figure, therefore, could be bullish for the Swissy.

After gapping down more than 70 pips over the weekend, the USDCHF found itself stuck within an 80 pip-range in yesterday’s trading session. The pair ended the day at 1.0595, hardly changed from its week open price of 1.0588.

No data coming out today, so the USDCHF’s movement end up very similar to yesterday’s. Watch carefully if those previous day highs and lows hold!

Despite the lack of any economic data yesterday, the franc came out ahead, posting some nice gains versus both the dollar and the euro. Both the USDCHF and EURCHF closed more than 50 pips lower from their opening prices.

Once again, nothing on the [=&currency[]=AUD&currency[]=CAD&currency[]=CHF&currency[]=EUR&currency[]=GBP&currency[]=JPY&currency[]=NZD&currency[]=USD&importance[]=&importance[]=3&importance[]=2&importance[]=1&submit=Submit"]economic calendar](Forex Economic Calendar[) for Switzerland, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see any strong moves in trading today. Watch out for any news coming out of Europe, especially concerning Greece, as any strong moves in the EURUSD pair could carry franc trading along with it. Also, take note that we’ve got some top tier data coming out from the US, which could lead to some volatility during the US session.

The USDCHF tiptoed towards the 1.0500 handle yesterday as the US dollar responded negatively to Bernanke’s downbeat speech. Switzerland did not release any economic reports in the past 24 hours but let’s take a look at what it has in store for today.

Once again, Switzerland has an empty economic schedule for today but SNB Governing Board vice-chairman Thomas Jordan is scheduled to testify on financial regulation at 5:30 pm GMT. Although this speech is slated to have a minimal effect on the Swissy’s price action, traders usually listen closely for hints regarding the central bank’s future monetary policy decisions.

Also keep an eye out for the release of several top-tier reports today. China is set to release its quarterly GDP, which could boast of an 11.8% expansion, and this could have a large effect on risk appetite. Meanwhile, the US is set to release its industrial production report along with a couple of manufacturing indices later today.

The Swissy encountered a minor hump in yesterday’s trading as it closed at the negative side of the stick against the greenback. The USDCHF rebounded to 1.0561 from 1.0516.

No economic reports came out of Switzerland yesterday. The Swissy lost some support when the US printed a worse than expected initial jobless claimsfigure of 484,000 for the week ending April 10. It was only seen to be at 439,000.

Today (7:15 am GMT), Switzerland’s producer price index (PPI) in March will be on deck. Producer prices likely rose by 0.2% in March after dipping by 0.3% in February. An increase in input prices could also reflect on the country’s inflation since such are usually transferred to end users. A jump in the account, therefore, could be bullish for the Swissy.

For the second day in a row, the Swissy found itself giving up some ground against the US dollar last Friday. Just like other major currencies, the main reason the Swissy took a dive was from the wave of risk aversion that came from the Goldman Sachs debacle. All in all, however, the USDCHF ended the week hardly changed, rising a mere seven pips from its opening price that week.

No data coming out of Switzerland today so we could see the Swissy’s price action be bound by the previous day’s highs and lows.

Tight trading yesterday, as traders took a breather after all the big moves last Friday. The USDCHF stayed within a range of just 80 pips, closing 7 pips lower.

With no major data coming out from Switzerland, franc trading will probably be dictated by the movements of the euro. Several euro zone reports will be released today, so we could see wilder moves today as compared to yesterday. Be on the lookout for more news regarding Greece, as well as any developments on the Goldman Sachs case. These two issues are weighing heavily on the markets, and could trigger wide spread risk aversion if any surprises break out.

The Swissy slipped again versus the greenback in yesterday’s trading. The USDCHF rose to and closed at 1.0682 from 1.0631. The pair appears to be on an uptrend for the last week. Though, it might find some resistance at this month’s high of 1.0787.

No economic data were released in Switzerland yesterday. Despite the 0.3% in gold prices, the Swissy still dipped. Remember that the Swissy has a strong correlation on the price of gold since around 25% of Switzerland’s money is backed by gold reserves. So usually when gold goes up, the Swissy gains as well and vice versa.

Today, Switzerland’s economic calendar will be report free again. Given this, the Swissy could just trade in a range-bound fashion.

The Swissy was placed on an uncomfortable spot again yesterday versus the greenback. The USDCHF extended its gains as it rose to 1.0700 from 1.0682. The question now is: Will the Swissy be able to recover?

Switzerland did not release any economic reports yesterday. The unexpected rise (8.0% from 7.8%) in the UK’s unemployment rate, however, caused the investors to be risk averse, leading them to buy up the safer currencies like the greenback in exchange for others like the Swissy. After dipping, the Swissy then just ranged during the rest of the session.

Today, Switzerland’s trade balance will be due at 6:15 am GMT. The country’s trade surplus likely expanded to CHF1.79 billion in March from CHF1.29 billion. An expansion in its trade balance could mean that its exports for the last month has improved. Such could give the Swissy a much needed boost.

Just like the euro, the Swiss franc received a serious beating from the dollar in yesterday’s trading session. The USDCHF ended the US trading session at 1.0767, almost 70 pips higher from its Asian session open price.

Data released from Switzerland yesterday was mixed, though it did not garner much attention. In any case, the country’s trade balance revealed a 2.01 billion CHF surplus for the month of March, higher than the previous month’s positive 1.29 billion and better than the 1.79 billion initially projected. Meanwhile, the ZEW economic expectations survey came out with a reading of 53.4 for this month, slightly lower than the last month’s reading of 53.8.

The Swiss franc has already lost three straight days against the dollar…. Hmm, could today be the day the bears take profit? Be careful out there, especially when the European trading session draws to a close!

It looked as if the franc was going to take another beating against the dollar, but luckily, it got a boost from the neighboring euro. As the EURUSD pushed higher, this allowed the CHF bulls to ride along, which led to the USDCHF closing over 100 pips lower from its high for the day.

No data on deck today, so look for CHF trading to be dictated by how the EURUSD trades today. Remember, the euro and the franc are highly correlated, which is why the franc gets dragged along whenever the euro makes strong moves.

Watch out later this week, when SNB Chairman Philipp Hildrebrand will be speaking at the General Meeting of Shareholders in Bern. It’ll be interesting to see whether he talks about the value of the franc or drop any comments about interest rates.

The Swiss franc edged lower against the greenback yesterday, causing the USDCHF to hit a high of 1.0788. No economic reports were released from both the US and Switzerland yesterday.

Today, Switzerland is set to release its UBS consumption indicator, which is a combined reading of five consumer-related indicators such as consumer confidence and retail sales. Last February, the indicator dipped from 1.36 back to 1.20, implying that consumer conditions worsened during the month. Would it be able to bounce back in March? Find out at 6:00 am GMT.

Aside from checking out those economic reports, watch out for developments concerning the Greek bailout and Goldman Sachs investigation since these could have an impact on risk sentiment. Be careful out there!

Ouch! A wave of risk aversion sent the Swissy back on the sidelines against the greenback yesterday. The USDCHF jumped to 1.0875 from 1.0739. After yesterday’s nasty slide, will the Swissy be able to rebound?

Switzerland’s UBS consumption indicator rose sharply to 1.71 in March from 1.20, indicating that domestic consumption at least for the period has increased significantly. Such growth can be credited to the 20% rise in car registrations.

What sent the Swissy sliding against the greenback was the credit downgrade of Greece and Portugal by Standard and Poor’s. S&P lowered Greece’s debt rating to junk. The same agency also reduced Portugal’s debt ranking two levels lower to A-. The simultaneous downgrades of the two countries mentioned sparked fears of a continent-wide debt crisis.

No economic reports are due today in Switzerland. Any development, though, from the euro zone, particularly in Greece and Portugal, could cause some volatility in the major currencies like the Swissy.

The lack of hard-hitting economic news kept the Swissy’s price action range bound yesterday. The USDCHF just bounced around its session highs and lows, ending the US trading session barely changed at 1.0860.

No data will be coming out today so watch out for news from euro zone and the US to get an idea where the Swissy is headed. Also be on the lookout for a possible Swissy sell-off though. Spain’s sovereign credit rating received a downgrade late in the European session yesterday, and we could see some a slight case of risk aversion once the European trading session begins later.