Daily Economic Commentary: Switzerland

More losses for the Swiss franc! For the fourth straight day, the safe haven currency weakened against the dollar and the euro as it continues to be bogged down by the threat of an SNB intervention. Will it continue to slide today?

Well, we’ll find out soon enough as Switzerland’s leaders will be meeting today to talk specifically about the franc! The Swiss government is set to discuss the franc’s recent appreciation in a meeting sometime today. Rumor has it that the government might finally set a floor for the EUR/CHF and peg the franc to the euro as many franc bulls had feared.

In any case, you’d best stay on your toes today as we could be in for another wild ride on the Swissy train. If word gets out that the SNB is planning to push through with pegging the franc, it could very well lead to another sharp selloff.

Fail! No matter how hard it tried, the SNB was unable to keep the franc from rallying yesterday. USD/CHF found resistance at the .8000 area and dropped by almost a couple hundred pips before closing at .7890. Meanwhile, EUR/CHF ended 10 pips below the 1.1400 handle. Will the SNB make another attempt to hold down the franc today?

“Try and try again” seems to be the motto of the SNB as it launched another attempt to pull down the Swiss franc. However, their attempt failed miserably since they didn’t say anything about their plans to peg their currency to the euro. Market participants were disappointed to find out that there wasn’t much progress yet and that the SNB would resort to its usual expansion of franc deposits.

In terms of economic data, Switzerland’s calendar is empty today, just as it was yesterday. With that, better keep your eyes and ears peeled for more verbal jawboning from the Swiss central bank. Good luck trading, fellas!

The Swissy pretty much gave as much as it got yesterday, chalking up mixed results against its major counterparts. While USD/CHF inched 42 pips higher, EUR/CHF slid down 19 pips. Will it get more consistent results today?

The markets experienced a bit of risk aversion yesterday, as evidenced by the drop in equities and commodities. But surprisingly enough, the Swissy wasn’t the currency of choice among traders, as it had been in the past. Instead, the dollar was one of yesterday’s biggest gainers.

It seems the threat of an intervention from the Swiss National Bank has been successful in keeping Swissy bulls at bay. It certainly did well to limit the Swissy’s appreciation yesterday.

For today, it looks as though we’ll have to trade according to risk sentiment since Switzerland won’t be publishing any reports. Y’all know the drill. If risk sentiment turns sour, expect Swissy power!

Can you say, RANGE? For all of last week, the Swissy stayed within a range of 200 pips between .7800 and .8000. What could cause the pair to break out of this consolidation?

Could it be trade balance figures, which are scheduled to come out tomorrow? Perhaps if the report prints a figure way worse than the anticipated 1.83 billion CHF surplus, it could send USD/CHF soaring above the .8000 handle.

Or could it be employment data, which will hit the airwaves on Thursday? Word is that Swiss employment will come in at 4.11 million, the same as the previous quarter.

Maybe we’ll see consolidation until the end of the week, when the KOF Economic Barometer index is released. Take note that this is a high impact event, so it could prove to be the catalyst to bust USD/CHF out of its range!

In any case, just stay on your toes and be ready for a breakout! You never know, our buddies over at the SNB might just open their mouths and rock the markets!

Dojis, dojis everywhere! Trading the Swissy was an absolute bore yesterday as it remained flat against its two major counterparts. USD/CHF finished hardly unchanged at .7898 just as EUR/CHF finished 8 pips lower at 1.1344.

The only report on tap for today is the monthly trade balance report. Expect to see Switzerland’s surplus expand from 1.77 billion CHF to 1.83 billion CHF.

Aside from a better-than-expected figure from the aforementioned trade balance report, we could see a Swissy rally as a result of risk aversion in anticipation of the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. A lot of questions will remain unanswered until then, and this could lead to safe haven flows in favor of the Swissy. However, keep in mind that the threat of a Swissy-euro peg still remains, and could limit and gains in the Swiss currency.

Ranging, ranging, ranging! That’s all what franc pairs have been doing lately! Once again, USD/CHF traded within a tight consolidation of just 80 pips, as traders are unsure what to do with the pair. Will we finally see a breakout today?

Chances are no… UNLESS of course, the SNB decides to intervene in the markets. After all, it’s been the threat of SNB intervention that has kept franc trading subdued over the past week. While there is still a lot of tension in the markets, traders are afraid to keep buying up the franc.

For the meantime, all you Swissy traders just be patient and once you see a breakout of the consolidation, make sure you’re ready for some wild moves!

Whoa! Even the mighty Swissy was no match for the dollar in yesterday’s trading! USD/CHF closed higher for the third consecutive day in a row, ending the day 33 pips above its opening price at .7950. EUR/CHF also continued its uptrend, finding support at 1.1400 and closing at 1.1463.

Some market junkies believe that the Swissy’s losses could be because traders aren’t so pessimistic about the global economy as they were before.

With that said, make sure you get a good feel of market sentiment before you decide to play the Swissy. Keep in mind that the currency usually rallies when risk aversion picks up.

Aside from that, keep tabs on the reports we have from Switzerland today. At 7:15 am GMT, the employment report for Q2 2011 will be released and it is expected to show that the number of employed people remained steady at 4.11 million, matching the figure for Q1 2011.

Then at 9 am GMT, the ZEW economic expectations report for August will be released. Watch out for a figure better than the -58.9 reading we saw for July as this would indicate an improvement in consumer sentiment and may consequently be bullish for the Swissy.

Hmph! Data schmata! Despite a negative report, the Swissy was still able to end yesterday’s trading with a win against most of its counterparts. USD/CHF ended the day 26 pips lower at .7925, while EUR/CHF was down 63 pips for the day at 1.1401.

The ZEW Economic Expectations report for August showed further pessimism among investors when it printed lower at -71.4 than July’s -58.9 reading. But as I said, it seemed like it didn’t keep the Swissy from kicking butt in yesterday’s trading. Perhaps traders were already reducing their risks ahead of the much-anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium.

For today, we also have another high-caliber report from Switzerland on tap later at 9:30 am GMT. The KOF Economic Barometer for August is seen to come in at 1.84 but a worse than expected figure may give investors enough reason to flee the Swissy as this would indicate that economic growth could slow in the next few months.

Make sure you don’t miss that and also remember to keep tabs on market sentiment if you’re planning to trade the Swissy!

Kaboom! Thanks to the initial dollar rally during the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Swissy blew past the .8000 handle! After hitting as high as .8157, USD/CHF settled at .8077, marking an impressive 147 pip gain for the day. Not bad!

Part of the reason why the franc may have lost its footing last Friday was probably due to the dismal KOF economic barometer report, which printed a reading of just 1.61. Not only was this way off the projected 1.84 level, but it was a major drop from last month’s release of 1.98 and marked the index’ lowest level in nearly two years.

This indicates weakness in the Swiss economy and that the struggles of other nations are finally hurting Switzerland.

No biggies on the docket till Thursday, so I suggest keeping an eye on risk sentiment to gauge whether the Swissy can stay above the key .8000 level.

The Swissy continued its losing streak yesterday as traders grew more optimistic about the global economy. Apparently, Greece’s Alpha Bank agreed to purchase Eurobank Ergasis and helped the country’s main equity market index surge 14%. This gave traders reason to believe that the worst of the debt crisis in Greece is over. EUR/CHF found itself trading at 1.1838 by the end of the U.S. trading session, 134 pips higher from its day open price.

Today, the Switzerland’s economic calendar only offers us the UBS consumption indicator. It is scheduled to come out at 6:00 am GMT. Last month, the report printed a reading of 1.48. If the figure later manages to beat that figure, we may see the Swissy regain some of its losses.

Is the Swissy losing its swag? The currency extended its losing streak against the dollar yesterday when USD/CHF ended the day 34 pips above its opening price at .8198. Meanwhile, EUR/CHF also ended the day higher by 4 pips at 1.1850.

Without any economic data on tap, it seems like the Swissy has become victim to market sentiment. Our forex calendar is once again blank for data from Switzerland today, so it’s probably a good idea to get a good feel of the market’s mood first before betting on the Swissy.

Don’t worry, tomorrow we’ll have a lot of high-caliber data to sink our teeth into as the GDP, retail sales, and manufacturing PMI reports are due to be released!

The Swissy finally decided enough was enough and cut its string of losses with a stellar win yesterday. The safe haven Swissy capped off the U.S. trading session with a 141-pip gain over the Greenback and a 270-pip victory versus the euro.

The Swissy’s strength was the result the government’s response to the strong Swissy. Swiss Econcomy Minister Schneider-Amman said that although the competitiveness of the country’s exports has taken a hit, they have to live with the strong Swiss franc for quite some time. He also said that the currency intervention expectations of the market were greatly exaggerated.

Today, Switzerland’s economic calendar has two important reports for us.

First is the retail sales report at 7:15 am GMT. The market predicts a 4.6% rise, which is lower than the previous month’s huge 7.6% increase. Second is the SVME Purchasing Managers’ Index. The SVME PMI is slated to fall to 51.1 from last month’s 53.5.

Who’s the boss now? Despite weak economic reports from Switzerland, the franc still managed to dominate the charts like a boss, gaining 242 pips on the euro and 117 pips against the dollar. Whoo!

Data released from Switzerland yesterday revealed that retail sales only grew by 1.9% in July against its 7.9% growth in June. In addition, the country’s GDP report showed a 0.4% growth for the second quarter, which is a bit weaker than the previous 0.6% growth reading. Lastly, the SVME PMI dropped to 51.7 in August from its 53.5 number in July.

Good thing for the franc bulls that risk sentiment ruled over markets! Concerns on global economic growth escalated on weak economic data from the euro zone, U.K., and the U.S., which made the low-yielding franc attractive to investors.

Will the franc go for gold today? Switzerland is set to release its employment figures today at 7:15 am GMT, but traders will also keep a close eye on the big NFP report from the U.S. at 12:30 pm GMT. The report usually sparks crazy volatility in the markets, so make sure you’re glued to the tube at the release of the report!

Good luck in your trades today, kids!

It was employment data galore last Friday as both Switzerland and the U.S. released their respective reports on the labor market. Both reports were disappointed, yet the Swissy was the one that came out on top. The Swissy was able to gain a respectable 45-pip gain versus the Greenback.

Switzerland’s quarterly employment level report printed a 2.77 million figure, significantly lower from the 4.11 million initially expected. This means that the number of full-time employees by 1.34 million for the second quarter of 2011.

In the U.S., the non-farm payrolls showed that no jobs were added in August. The forecast was for a 74,000 gain.

This week, Switzerland only has its CPI report to offer. Scheduled to publish at 7:15 am GMT tomorrow, it is expected to show a that the inflation rate improved to- 0.1% from -0.8%. Let’s see if the actual figure manages to come in better than that and help the Swissy continue its rally.

What’s that? No news report from Switzerland and the franc gained across the board? Risk aversion must be on like Donkey Kong! EUR/CHF ended up with a 73-pip slide to 1.1093, while USD/CHF also slipped by 13 pips to .7873.

Even with U.S. session traders out for a long weekend and many European traders enjoying the last days of summer, trading was still volatile yesterday. As it turned out, concerns on the euro zone and the U.S. economic growth were enough to give investors heebie-jeebies.

As attractive the low-yielding franc is though, you should be careful not to buy it up like there’s no tomorrow. Word on the hood is that the SNB is still ready to take action if the franc dramatically strengthens in markets again.

At 7:15 am GMT today Switzerland is due to release its CPI report for August. Analysts are expecting inflationary pressures to slip by -0.1% for the month after a 0.8% slide in July, but a higher figure might push the franc higher in the charts.

Awesome advice on not buying CHF - it sure did tank!

Did those wild Swissy moves catch you by surprise? EUR/CHF jumped by more than a THOUSAND pips from its 1.1019 low to a high of 1.2188 yesterday while USD/CHF skyrocketed past the .8500 handle. Read on to find out why this happened.

The SNB sure knows how to catch the markets off guard when it decided to peg its currency just when most traders started coming back from their Labor Day holiday. The central bank announced that it will do whatever it takes to make sure that EUR/CHF never falls below the 1.2000 floor. Word through the forex grapevine is that this intervention cost the SNB more than 200 billion CHF, leading plenty to speculate that this deal is too expensive for the SNB to maintain.

This announcement took the spotlight off the weaker than expected Swiss CPI for August. The report printed a -0.3% reading, worse than the projected -0.1% figure for the month, suggesting that the Swiss economy could soon be facing deflation.

Since Switzerland won’t be releasing any economic data today and because the SNB already committed to prevent the Swissy from rallying, we might be in for a bit of consolidation from the franc pairs.

Judging by the franc’s price action yesterday, it seems like even the term “consolidation” is an overstatement. The franc’s price action was a complete snoozer! EUR/CHF crawled by another 52 pips higher at 1.2109, while USD/CHF slipped by 28 pips to .8583.

With no economic reports coming out from Switzerland, it looks like the franc would have to play by risk aversion once again. Don’t hold your breath for any significant price action though. Unless it’s Chuck Norris himself who challenges the SNB’s determination to cap the franc’s gains, we probably won’t see any big price movement.

The franc continued to weaken in the aftermath of the SNB’s decision to peg EUR/CHF at 1.2000. After opening at 1.2101, EUR/CHF rose 146 pips to close at 1.2152. Ouch!

It’ll be interesting to see how vigilant the SNB will be in maintaining their stance regarding the strength of the franc. Now, I don’t expect EUR/CHF to dip below 1.2000 anytime soon, but NOTHING is ever certain in the markets, so make sure to stay on your toes!

Finally, a win against the euro! The Swiss franc recorded its first victory against the euro since the SNB announced its currency peg, pushing EUR/CHF down 83 pips to 1.2069. However, against the dollar, it continued to slide as USD/CHF rose 84 pips to .8833.

It seems as though the markets aren’t ready to take EUR/CHF too far away from the 1.2000 level that the SNB has decided to set as a floor exchange rate. With the euro zone’s debt problems in focus, traders were eager to sell off the shared currency even if it meant buying up the Swiss franc, which the SNB has vowed to weaken. But I wouldn’t read too much into this just yet. After all, EUR/CHF is still well above 1.2000.

This week, we may see more ranging action from the franc ahead of the SNB’s monetary policy assessmenton Friday. It’ll be particularly interesting to hear what the boys of the central bank have to say after seeing price action on the franc in the past few days. They only hold this meeting quarterly, so don’t even think of missing it!