Thud! The euro fell like a heavy rock on Friday, with EUR/USD dropping to a low of 1.3545 and EUR/JPY falling 23 pips below the 132.00 major psychological level. What was that all about and can it recover today?
Medium-tier euro zone data came in weaker than expected, as both the German PPI and region-wide PPI fell short of consensus. Producer prices in euro zone’s largest economy showed a 0.1% decline while the region printed a flat reading.
Only the euro zone Sentix investor confidence and final GDP reading are up for release from the euro zone today. The Sentix report could show a rise from 6.5 to 10.9, reflecting stronger optimism for October, while the euro zone GDP reading for Q2 2013 could hold steady at 0.3%. Watch out for those reports starting 9:30 am GMT.
Hi-yah! The common currency received a triple roundhouse kick from the yen, pound, and the franc as the euro zone’s fundamentals caught up to its price action. What the heck brought that on?!
The euro gained against the dollar on overall Greenback weakness, but it didn’t have any fight against its counterparts. For one thing, yesterday’s Sentix investor confidence data only came in at 6.1 when market players had been looking for a 10.9 reading. It also didn’t help that the euro zone’s Q2 2013 GDP came in at 0.3%, which is better than Q1 2013’s 0.1% growth but is still below first estimates at around 0.4%.
Will the euro bulls bring their game face today? We have a lot of German data on tap including the trade balance numbers at 6:00 am GMT. The report is expected to improve from a surplus of 14.5 billion EUR to 15.1 billion EUR. Then, at 10:00 am GMT Germany will print its factory orders numbers, which is estimated to show a 1.2% growth from the previous month’s 2.7% decline. Since Germany is the euro zone’s largest economy, any major hiccup in these big reports could weigh on the euro in general.
EUR/USD paced back and forth between support around 1.3560 and resistance below 1.3600, as traders kept waiting for a strong market catalyst. EUR/JPY rallied to a high of 132.04 then ended the U.S. session at 131.49.
Economic data from the euro zone was mixed, with the German trade balance beating expectations and the factory orders data falling short. The trade surplus widened from 15.0 billion EUR to 15.6 billion EUR, higher than the estimate at 15.1 billion EUR, while factory orders showed a 0.3% decline instead of the projected 1.2% increase.
German industrial production figures are up for release at 11:00 am GMT today and the report is expected to show a 1.1% rebound from the previous 1.7% decline. A weaker than expected reading could keep the euro’s gains in check so make sure you keep tabs on the actual report. Don’t forget that ECB President Draghi has a speech scheduled at 11:00 pm GMT and he might rock the markets then!
Mixed price action? We’ll take it! The euro bulls were pretty satisfied with pushing EURGBP, EURCHF, and EUR/JPY higher even as they lost in the EUR/USD battle. What boosted the euro this time?
Blame it on euro zone news reports! Not only did the German industrial production come in better-than-expected (1.4% vs. 1.1%), but some ECB officials had also spoken up. Apparently, more than a few of them agree that more LTRO is not necessary in the near future.
Will the good vibes sustain the bulls today? At 6:45 am GMT we’ll see France’s industrial numbers, followed by the ECB monthly bulletin and Italian industrial production at 8:00 am GMT. And don’t forget Draghi’s speech out at 4:30 pm GMT!
You win some, you lose some. While the euro gave up some of its recent gains to the dollar, it was able to recover against the Japanese yen. What’s in store for the euro today?
Medium-tier data from the euro zone was weaker than expected, with the French industrial production report printing a mere 0.2% uptick. This was lower than the estimated 0.7% increase and wasn’t much of a recovery from the previous period’s 0.6% decline. Italy also printed a bleak industrial production figure of -0.3%.
There’s not much in terms of data from the euro zone today so expect either range-bound behavior or profit-taking for euro pairs! Traders might be thinking of taking off some risk ahead of the weekend, as the folks over in Washington could reach an agreement in the coming days. Be careful!
Now that’s how you end a week! Thanks to a relatively better-than-expected report and slightly optimistic ECB speeches, the euro was able to gain ground across the board. In fact, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and even EUR/CHF all showed euro strength!
The only report from the euro region last Friday was the German wholesale price index. The index popped up by 0.7% in September, which was a bit stronger than the 0.5% expectations. It also didn’t hurt that central bankers like Mario Draghi and Peter Praet suggest that the region’s economy has bottomed out.
Let’s see if the euro bulls can keep their momentum today when the industrial production data on tap at 9:00 am GMT. The Eurogroup meetings will also take place today, so keep an eye out for any speeches that might hint at the leaders’ plans to stay on the recovery track!
No major economic data (with the exception of Industrial production 1.0% vs. 0.8% forecast) made for a quiet morning European session for the Euro. After a 12pm GMT spike higher in risk assets and volatility, and the broad Greenback rally a few hours later, EUR/USD traded in a tight 54 pip range and closed the session virtually unchanged at 1.3561.
From the Eurogroup meetings, we got rhetoric that Spain and Ireland will soon be off their aid, and that Greece’s debts will be paid; again, it’s all talk for now but could be supportive for the euro in the short-term.
Today, we’ll see ZEW Economic Sentiment readings from Europe, most notable is the German ZEW (forecasted inline with the previous read at 49.6), and more meetings today between Europe’s Finance Ministers. Not usually market movers, but you may never know when the big guys are talking!
Strong data? So what! The euro gave up ground to the dollar and the yen, pushing EUR/USD down to the 1.3500 area and EUR/JPY to a low of 132.65. Will the euro be able to recover today?
German ZEW climbed from 49.6 to 52.8 in September, signaling that investors and analysts have turned optimistic about euro zone’s largest economy. The figure for the entire region was weaker than expected though, as it rose from 58.6 to 59.1, slightly lower than the estimated 59.4 reading.
Euro zone CPI figures are due today but these aren’t likely to cause huge waves among euro pairs. Headline inflation is projected to stay at 1.1% while core inflation could dip from 1.1% to 1.0%. The bigger market mover for today might be ECB President Draghi’s speech at 7:00 pm GMT so y’all better watch out for that!
Looks like the dollar wasn’t the only winner yesterday! The euro locked in major pips against the pound, yen, and the franc after a couple of positive reports popped up in the region.
The euro started the day on the right side of the charts as the euro zone’s inflation rate fell by an annualized rate of 1.1% for the month of September, its lowest in 3.5 years. The low inflation numbers gives the ECB a lot more room to stimulate the economy without unnecessarily raising consumer prices.
It also didn’t hurt that ECB’s Draghi is gaining momentum in establishing a common banking system. Draghi talked about a bank stress test due in early 2014, which gauges the banks’ ability to withstand economic shocks. Not a bad day for the euro, eh?
Only the euro zone’s current account numbers at 8:00 am GMT is scheduled for release today. The report doesn’t usually move the currency much, so you might want to keep an eye out for risk appetite as well.
Ha! Who ya callin’ a loser now? The euro strutted its stuff across the charts and raked in plenty of gains against the dollar and the yen. EUR/USD climbed above the 1.3650 minor psychological level while EUR/JPY rallied past 134.00. Can the euro keep it up?
The only report released from the euro zone yesterday was the current account balance, which actually came in weaker than expected. Instead of seeing the surplus widen from 15.5 billion EUR to 17.7 billion EUR, the figure simply landed at 17.4 billion EUR.
What boosted the euro up the charts yesterday was the run in risk appetite after the U.S. officially ended its government shutdown when a debt deal was passed. EUR/USD also got an additional boost from news that a Chinese credit rating agency downgraded U.S. debt.
There are no reports due from the euro zone today so euro trading could very much depend on market sentiment. With that, make sure you keep close tabs on any updates from Washington and potential profit-taking ahead of the weekend!
Dojis, dojis everywhere! After making an effort in early London session trading, investors decided to close shop early and just wait for the next week. Heck, the euro ended the day almost unchanged against its counterparts!
We didn’t see any significant news report from the euro zone last Friday, so it was easy for traders to take some profits and close up shop early.
But that was then and this is now. At 6:00 am GMT it will be all about Germany as we’ll see the German PPI numbers, followed by the German Bundesbank monthly report. Remember that Germany is the euro zone’s largest economy, so any significant miss could negatively affect the euro. Good luck and good trading!
Consolidation is the name of the game! EUR/USD was stuck between support at 1.3650 and resistance at the 1.3700 major psychological level, as the pair kept waiting for a catalyst for a strong move in either direction. Will we see one in today’s trading sessions?
The only report released from the euro zone yesterday was the German PPI which printed a 0.3% uptick for September, better than the estimated 0.1% increase and the previous month’s 0.1% decline. Strong producer price inflation could carry on to higher overall inflationary pressures later on.
There are no reports scheduled from the euro zone today, allowing traders to focus on pricing in their expectations for the U.S. NFP release during the New York session. A 182K rise in employment is expected to follow the previous 169K figure, but a weaker than expected reading might be negative for the dollar and be enough to push EUR/USD past 1.3700. Watch out for that!
Euro bulls unite! The common currency clobbered its major counterparts yesterday despite the lack of economic data from the euro zone. Was it all because of the NFP report then?
Yes and no. While the negative NFP report definitely drove investors to the higher-yielding currencies, it also didn’t hurt the euro that Draghi and other euro zone officials have been giving optimistic remarks on the economy. In fact, market geeks just aren’t seeing solid reasons to short the euro right now, which explains why it’s so easy for the bulls to push it higher.
On tap today is the Belgian NBB business climate at 1:00 pm GMT, followed by the euro zone consumer confidence data at 2:00 pm GMT. Sentiment and confidence reports have been on a roll in the region lately, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more optimism from these reports.
Risk off? Pfft, who cares? The euro was sold off against the lower-yielding U.S. dollar and Japanese yen earlier on but the shared currency made a quick recovery before the end of the U.S. session. EUR/USD slipped from a high of 1.3794 to a low of 1.3741 before bouncing back towards the 1.3800 handle.
Only medium-tier reports were released from the euro zone yesterday and these actually turned out weaker than expected. Belgium’s NBB business climate reading slipped from -6.7 to -7.7 while euro zone consumer confidence stayed at -15, a notch lower than the estimated improvement to -14.
Today could be a more volatile day for the euro pairs, as Germany and France are gearing up to release their manufacturing and services PMIs. All reports are projected to show another round of improvements for October, which could help EUR/USD extend its rally past 1.3800. Watch out for the release of Spain’s unemployment rate, which is expected to drop from 26.3% to 26.1%. Stay on your toes starting 8:00 am GMT because things could get rowdy for the euro by then!
Up, up, and… nope! Not yet! Just when we thought that the euro is headed for new highs, the bears attacked and made a dent on the common currency’s intraday gains. What the heck happened?
Reports from the euro zone certainly didn’t make it easy for the euro bulls. Services PMIs from both Germany and the euro region missed its expectations while their manufacturing numbers barely met analysts’ estimates. Since investors had been looking for stellar numbers, the reports caused the euro some pips.
Let’s see if the euro can make another run for its new monthly highs. Germany’s IfO business climate is up at 8:00 am GMT. Since Germany is the euro zone’s largest economy, any significant miss or upside surprise could affect the euro’s price action during the London session.
Down but not out! The euro initially suffered a sharp selloff on Friday but it was able to recover towards the end of the day. EUR/USD dipped to a low of 1.3774 before bouncing back above the 1.3800 handle while EUR/JPY managed to close at 134.47 then gap up over the weekend. Can the euro keep it up?
The euro zone actually printed weaker than expected data on Friday, as Germany’s Ifo business climate report printed a decline in confidence. The reading for October fell from 107.7 to 107.4 instead of climbing to the estimate at 108.2. Despite that, the index is still hovering around its yearly highs so traders still kept the euro supported throughout the day.
There are no reports due from the euro zone today so make sure you keep tabs on market sentiment to figure out where euro pairs could be headed. Unless there are major catalysts though, the euro might be stuck in consolidation against its counterparts this Monday.
The euro bulls partied in the pip streets yesterday despite the lack of significant trading volatility across the board. EUR/USD and EUR/JPY might have slipped a bit but EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF capped the day in the green.
We didn’t see any economic report from the euro region yesterday, but overall dollar strength didn’t do the high-yielding currency any favors. The euro chalked up gains against the pound though, thanks to a surprisingly weak report from the U.K.
Let’s see if the euro bulls can step up their game. At 8:00 am GMT we’ll see the GfK consumer climate numbers. The report doesn’t usually dictate the euro’s moves until the end of the day, but it could cause some intraday volatility for the common currency!
The euro did a Humpty Dumpty on the charts yesterday, as it had a great fall after days of sitting on the wall. EUR/USD was unable to break past the 1.3800 major psychological resistance and tumbled down to the 1.3750 area instead. Can it recover today?
There were no reports released from the euro zone yesterday, leaving the euro with practically nothing to hang on to as risk aversion surged in the markets. Today could be a different story though as the euro zone has a bunch of medium-tier reports lined up.
First up, we have the German preliminary CPI figure which is slated to show another flat reading. Later on, Spain will be releasing its flash GDP reading for Q3 2013 and possibly show a 0.1% growth figure, which would mean that euro zone’s third largest economy is out of a recession! After that, Germany will release its unemployment change report and probably show a mere 1K increase in joblessness, which would be much better compared to the previous 25K rise. Germany and Italy are also set to hold their bond auctions today and this might add to volatility among euro pairs. Pretty exciting day for the euro, don’t you think?
The euro might have lost pips against the dollar, pound, and the franc, but it sure gained pips on the yen! What the heck caused the mixed price action anyway?!
The euro bulls weren’t thrilled when Germany’s unemployment rose for the third month in October, which isn’t good since Germany is the largest economy in the euro zone. Good thing that Spain’s GDP finally exited the recession zone with a 0.1% growth in Q3 2013.
Don’t expect to see less EUR volatility today since we have a couple more German reports on tap. Not only will Germany’s retail sales and GfK German consumer climate pop in at 8:00 am GMT, but we’ll also see France’s consumer spending at 8:45 am GMT and the euro zone’s CPI and unemployment rate numbers at 11:00 am GMT. Good luck trading these reports!
What in the world…? The euro dove sharply against its major counterparts yesterday, as it fell by nearly 200 pips to the dollar in a span of a few hours. EUR/USD plummeted from the 1.3775 area to a low of 1.3575 while EUR/JPY slipped below the 134.00 handle.
Economic data from the euro zone was mostly in the red, as medium-tier releases from its largest economies printed weaker than expected results. For instance, German retail sales showed a 0.4% decline instead of the projected 0.5% uptick while the German GfK consumer climate fell from 7.1 to 7.0 instead of improving to 7.3.
Over in France, consumer spending showed a 0.1% dip versus the consensus of a 0.2% rise. Italy’s unemployment rate came in worse than expected at 12.5% for September while the previous month’s reading was revised up to 12.4%. Joblessness in the entire euro region reached 12.2%, higher than the projected 12.2% figure, while the CPI flash estimate fell short of consensus at 0.7%.
Euro zone banks are on a holiday today, which means that there will be no economic reports released from the region. With that, the downbeat sentiment from yesterday could keep weighing on euro pairs until the end of the week, unless traders decide to book most of their profits ahead of the weekend!