Daily Fundamental Dose - Page 75
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  1. #741
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    Daily Fundamental Dose: 13 – April – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    Although North-Korean retaliation over US Navy’s march to nearby sea-region and mixed response for Trump’s bold attack over Syria presently reversing most of the greenback’s previous-week gain, market-players are waiting for Friday’s US CPI release to determine upcoming USD moves after Trump’s comment on Wednesday revealed his likeliness for weaker currency.

    Market At Present

    As global geo-political tensions between US, Syria and North-Korea kept playing with the minds of investors, run for risk-safety seems to be on the top of their priority. With this, the JPY and Gold prices continued rallying while US Dollar had to bear the burden of its tug of war with Syria and not-so-good relations with North-Korea. Further, the EUR witnessed some pullback moves as uncertainty prevails ahead of French election whereas GBP gained from upbeat jobs report. Moreover, commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, celebrated commodity basket strength but the Crude, which has been rising off-late on production-cut agreement concern, witnessed a correction after US stockpile again elevated supply-glut issue.

    On early Thursday, AU Employment Change rallied to the highest since December 2015, with Full-time Employment rising to December 1987 levels, while Chinese Trade Balance also revealed additional surplus with higher exports. Hence, the AUD and NZD got additional boost but the CAD remained almost silent with yesterday’s BoC terming US President as not helping while announcing no change in their monetary policy and the Crude prices remained subdued.

    US Consumer-Centric Details & Korean Uncertainty Play Major Role For Now

    Moving forward from the present geo-political environment, USD traders are waiting for monthly releases of US consumer-centric data-points, namely Preliminary UoM Michigan Consumer Sentiment, CPI and Retail Sales, to foresee any changes in the present downturn of greenback.

    The Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, scheduled for publish on Thursday, might keep portraying optimism with 97.1 figure versus 96.9 revised prior while PPI, also up for today’s release, could curb the hawkish sentiment with 0.0% mark against 0.3% earlier. Further, CPI is likely to stagnant condition with 0.0% mark compared to 0.1% prior while there aren’t any changes expected in the Core CPI, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales stats. The Core CPI may remain at 0.2%, with Core Retail Sales bearing the same consensus of 0.2%, whereas Retail Sales could again register 0.1% growth.

    Other than aforementioned US numbers, Canadian Manufacturing sales and speech by BoC Governor, coupled with weekly Jobless Claims, are some second-tier details/events that may offer intermediate trade opportunities. The Canadian Manufacturing Sales may contract with -0.4% against +0.6% prior growth and the BoC Governor could also repeat his yesterday’s anti-US comments that can drag CAD to trim some of its latest gains. Additionally, the US Jobless Claims are expected to mark an increase from 234K to 242K.

    On the political front, the North-Korea is expected to conduct another nuclear test as a mark to celebrate its founder Kim Il Sung’s 105th birthday and the anniversary of its army establishment sometime during this month while Syria is also seem to be nervous and might follow Korean path to threaten US. Further, US President continue contacting some major economic leaders, like Russian President, UK PM and Chinese PM, but everybody seems having their own problems and are reluctant to join the world’s largest economy in countering North-Koreans and Syrians. However, Mr. Trump maintains his tough stance and keep saying that the nation will solve its problems on its own and hence everybody is afraid of the next action by US.

    Hence, with the expected not-so-good economic support and continued geo-political tensions hovering over US, chances of the further deterioration in greenback prices are higher.

    However, the JPY and Gold are trading near important technical levels and may witness pullbacks while EUR and the GBP are less likely to register noticeable moves with no major data scheduled for publish ahead of Easter holidays. Further, AUD and NZD but CAD could register small losses depending upon the result of upcoming details/events from Canada.

    Technical Talk

    Even if EURUSD failed to justify three-month old trend-line break, the 1.0710 can continue restricting the pair’s near-term advances with 1.0620 and the 1.0560 likely adjacent supports. On the other hand, GBPUSD is marching towards 1.2610 but 200-day SMA, at 1.2635 now, could limit its further upside while a break below 1.2500 can reignite possibilities to witness 1.2420. Further, USDJPY is struggling with 108.70-60 horizontal-support, comprising 200-day SMA, and oversold RSI signals brighter chances of its pullback to 109.40 and the 110.00 whereas USDCAD also rests around 200-day SMA figure of 1.3215 and can bounce-off to 1.3320. Moreover, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are near to short-term important resistances of 0.7610 and 0.7010 respectively with 0.7500 and the 0.6915 acting as nearby supports.

    Have a nice trading-day ……

  2. #742
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    Daily Fundamental Dose: 17 – April – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    Following political tensions between US and North Korea, coupled with weaker Retail Sales and CPI details, dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) down on a weekly basis for the first time in previous three-weeks, global markets are trading sideways on early Monday due to Easter holidays in Europe, UK, Australia and New-Zealand. However, a failed ballistic missile-test by the North-Korea and strong Chinese data-points offered intermediate trade opportunities to market players.

    Taking a step backwards, the US Dollar became a victim of Mr. Trump’s order to US warships that marched close to Korean sea-border while a five-year low Core CPI and a year’s first contraction in CPI, coupled with back-to-back dip in Retail Sales, provided additional weakness to the greenback. The EUR, even after gaining against USD, remained sluggish with growing tensions in France ahead of the first-round of French election while the GBP managed to remain comparatively stronger on upbeat Inflation and Earning details. Further, AUD and NZD stretched their north-run with broader commodity-basket strength whereas CAD celebrated rising Crude prices on expectation of extended global production-cut accord beyond June. Additionally, JPY and Gold ran further towards north as escalating geo-political pessimism pushed traders towards risk-safety.

    As said earlier, Monday morning was a bit quiet, mainly due to extended weekends at some of the major economies but Sunday’s failed missile-test by the North-Korea continued making geo-politics alive and helped safe-havens. Further, an overall strong economic rebound depicted by Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales helped providing additional strength to the commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD. However, Crude prices trimmed some of its latest gains on another high reading by US Rig counts while EUR and GBP maintained their comparative strength against USD.

    For the rest of the day, US Empire State Manufacturing Index and NAHB Housing Market Index might offer some moves to the USD whereas news from White House, relating to North-Korea, could keep governing greenback’s near-term trend as there aren’t any major economics scheduled during the week.

    Technical Talk

    EURUSD against bounced-off from a near-term upward slanting trend-line, at 1.0605 now, and is heading towards 1.0680 whereas USDCAD stretched its pullback from 1.3335-40 and is again aiming to re-test 100-day SMA figure of 1.3280. Moving on, the EURCAD struggles around short-term “Falling-Wedge” resistance and a sustained break above 1.4140 could flash 1.4180 and 1.4240 while 1.4080 and 1.4020 can become immediate supports during the pair’s additional downturn.

    Have a nice trading-day ……

  3. #743
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    Daily Fundamental Dose: 18 – April – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    With the North-Korea’s failed missile-test already cutting down the need of US response, China’s readiness to join the world’s largest economy in confronting the Korean nation’s nuclear program helped easing some of the Geo-political tensions from the head of investors on Monday when majority of global markets were off due to extended-weekend holidays. As a result, the JPY and Gold, known as safe-havens, trimmed some of their latest gains but the US Dollar couldn’t register a positive daily closing because of five-month low Empire State Manufacturing Index and lesser than expected print of NAHB Housing Market Index. On the contrary, the EUR managed to stabilize itself while the GBP also strengthened a bit even without any fresh economics and closed markets at EU & UK. Further, the AUD, CAD and NZD maintained their strength on upbeat Chinese data-points whereas Crude prices softened a bit after US government forecasted two-year high Shale output in May.

    On Tuesday, when almost all the global markets are scheduled to go again live after four-days of rest, market became active during early hours. However, being too early for all the bourses to open, Monday moves weakening safe-havens were seen to be carried forward but the USD managed to strengthen off-late. The AUD had to bear the burden of dovish RBA meeting minutes which reflected central-bank’s worries over rallying property prices and sluggish job market while the CAD weakened as Crude prices dipped on supply-glut problems. Further, NZD and GBP continued being stronger compared to the greenback whereas EUR again dropped on uncertainty concerning French election.

    Moving forward, US vice-President is on the Japan trip and might push its leader to be against the North-Korea while US Housing market details, Industrial Production and New-Zealand GDT Price Index are some of the economics up for release during the later-day sessions. Looking at the US details, Industrial Production might help the greenback to extend its latest pullback while mixed housing data-points could raise the bars. Further, New-Zealand’s important index recently softened a bit and could hurt the Kiwi if registering further weakness.

    Other than the economics, global political leaders, mainly from EU, US and UK, are likely to become active and could help reinforce the safe-haven rally but soothing pains of US-Syria and less urgency to reflect on North-Korea could further drag the JPY and Gold towards south.

    Technical Talks

    As RBA decision dragged AUDUSD to again dip below 200-day SMA level of 0.7555, the pair might extend its profit-booking towards 0.7510 whereas GBPUSD seems heading towards 200-day SMA figure of 1.2630 with 1.2550 being nearby support. Additionally, EURNZD confronts 1.5185 – 1.5200 support-turned-resistance and might fail to surpass the same, which in-turn could drag it to 1.5130 & 1.5085.


    Have a nice trading-day ……

  4. #744
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    Daily Fundamental Dose: 19 – April – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    Even if escalating tensions between United States and North Korea have been the major market-driver off-late, Tuesday’s snap election announcement by the UK PM diverted investor focus towards the Pound.

    Everything was going quiet before the British bourses opened after four-day long holidays but then it was a surprise declaration from Theresa May, the UK PM, which said Britain will be holding a general election on June 8 in order to conquer current divisions in Parliament that’s holding back policymakers’ capacity to get best deal from EU during Article 50 negotiation. Due to this, GBP rallied across the board and surpassed six-month high when compared to the US Dollar. On the other hand, the greenback kept witnessing downside pressure because of geo-political tensions and mixed economic details while EUR also weakened on concerns relating to French election and a sudden UK communication.

    However, JPY and Gold regained their strength as British announcement added uncertainty to already prevailing geo-political tension and pushed traders towards risk-safety. Further, commodity currencies registered mixed moves as AUD had to bear the burden of dovish RBA and declining iron ore prices while NZD celebrated upbeat GDT price Index. Moreover, CAD had to trim major part of its latest strength as API data showed weaker than expected US stockpile drop and concerns about Shale output continued hurting energy and related prices.

    On Wednesday, traders started favoring the greenback during early sessions and seem covering some of their profits out of safe-havens as US news signaled a strong but not so violent situation against North Korea and some of the major economies have come forward to support the nation’s cause. Additionally, AUD, NZD and CAD all started and continued their fresh downturn while EUR and GBP remained weaker in absence of any major scheduled economics than EU Final CPI and New Zealand’s quarterly CPI release.

    Unless there are some strong economics from US, coupled with easing tensions between US-North Korea, which is less likely, the charm of safe-havens is less likely to fade but the greenback may register intermediate pullbacks depending upon political news relating the same subject. Further, EUR is likely to be hurt further with soft inflation mark while NZD could recover its latest losses if CPI meets consensus.

    Technical Talk

    NZDUSD failed to extend its recovery beyond 50-day SMA level of 0.7050 and a weaker inflation might drag the pair towards 0.6990 re-test while EURUSD may find it difficult to surpass 1.0740-50 resistance-zone by revisiting sub-1.0700 region. Further, GBPJPY is struggling around 50-day SMA level of 139.45, breaking which 140.65-75 horizontal-line becomes important to watch whereas 138.40 & 137.70 may act as nearby supports during pullback.

    Have a nice trading-day ……

  5. #745
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    Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – April – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    Although smaller economic-line and a holiday-shortened week pointed towards dormant trading-desks, global financial markets witnessed wild moves on Tuesday when all of the major bourses re-opened after four-day long break. The reason was a surprise general-election announcement on June 08 by the British PM in order to facilitate Brexit negotiation. With this, traders’ attention was aptly diverted from US-North Korea to political scenarios in UK and EU, where first round of French Presidential election would take place this weekend.

    On the economic side, Thursday’s US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Friday’s Flash PMIs from EU & UK Retail Sales, coupled with Canadian CPI, are some of the data-points that might offer intermediate trade opportunities and are important too. Let’s quickly summarize all these fundamentals.

    What & Why Of Majors Off-Late

    While US-Syria scene and US-North Korea tensions was already restricting USD up-move, even if data-points remained positive, Friday’s disappointing US CPI and Retail Sales became a reason for greenback Bears to enter the market and flash first negative weekly closing by the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) in previous three.

    The greenback stretched looses to the present week with not so good details and weekend instance from North Korea wherein the nation’s missile-test failed. However, Wednesday helped the currency to witness a pullback after Fed Beige Book reignited chances of successive Fed-rate hike and a draft plan to abandon the Dodd-Frank financial-reform law signaled Trump’s readiness to prove his campaign promises right.

    On the other hand, EUR kept struggling with political uncertainty ahead of French election whereas GBP maintained its previous week strength, driven by upbeat data-points, and added noticeable strength after snap-election announcement. Further, AUD seems reversing its last week gains with dovish RBA minutes whereas NZD remained strong as quarterly CPI approached central bank’s target for the first-time in more than five-years. Additionally, JPY and Gold couldn’t add more gains whereas first in two-month hike in US gasoline inventory and higher than forecast Crude stockpile dragged energy prices to reverse all of previous week profits and dip further towards south, which in-turn hurt CAD as well.

    Hence, while USD, AUD and EUR were witnessing no clear direction, the GBP and NZD gained high priority on traders’ list. However, halt in safe-havens’ rally, coupled with a plunge in Crud prices, increased troubles for Forex traders ahead of crucial release/events from EU and UK.

    The Tale Of EU & UK Catalysts

    Finally, the economic calendar has something important, namely Friday’s EU Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs and UK Retail Sales, in addition to the political woes hovering on both the economies, which could offer important details to predict near-term moves of the EUR and GBP respectively.

    At EU, a soft inflation number and uncertainty over French election has been disturbing the regional currency off-late and tomorrow’s PMIs are also expected to post not-so-good data-points with Manufacturing PMI likely being 56.1 from 56.2 but Services PMI may remain unchanged at 56.0. Hence, EUR traders could continue to facing difficulties ahead of Sunday’s French election wherein polls show a close-call for all the four candidates appearing to be amongst two choices for the French President.

    Given the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen wins ticket, the EUR could drop heavily as she has promised to drag France out of EU if she becomes President; though, the situation would become interesting if Emmanuel Macron also joins her as a prospective candidate. It’s mainly because both of them are likely bearing greater chances to gain the post and are sharing contrasting views with each other.

    In case of a surprise victory by the rest of two leaders, namely François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, situations are likely to remain dull as both of them are EU loving politicians and may favor the EUR.

    To make it straight, it can be said that economics are showing mixed results and can restrict EUR moves ahead of Sunday after then a victory by Marine Le Pen and other than Emmanuel Macron could hurt the regional currency.

    On the other hand, UK has already announced its intention to hold general election to overcome difficulties raised by opposition in discussing Article 50 with EU and the Theresa May government now gains brighter chances to become winner and can help GBP to regain its pre-Brexit strength. Meanwhile, Retail Sales may disappoint Pound traders with -0.3% mark versus +1.4% prior. So, uncertainty at UK politics and expectedly weaker Retail Sales are expected causes of concern for Pound traders and may limit its further advances unless any clear signals, either from economy or from polity.

    Rest of the data-points, namely US Philly Fed and Canadian CPI shows chances of USD further trimming its gains on weaker Manufacturing gauge of 25.6 from 32.8 whereas CAD adding some weight on 0.4% inflation-mark compared to 0.2% earlier.

    Technical Talks

    On the technical front, EURUSD is heading to 1.0775-80 region whereas a dip below 1.0680 can make it re-test 100-day SMA level of 1.0630 and then the 1.0615 TL. The GBPUSD has 1.2860-75 region to surpass in order to show its strength with 1.2670 acting as immediate support while USDJPY can keep struggling between 109.80 and 108.00. Further, AUDUSD may take a U-turn from 0.7470 towards again surpassing 200-day SMA figure of 0.7555 but the NZDUSD could find its hard to clear 0.7080 and can revisit 0.6970 support. Additionally, USDCAD cleared short-term descending trend-line, which points to its further up-move towards 1.3530, but a drop below 1.3400 can negate recent breakout.

    Have a nice trading-day ……

  6. #746
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    Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – April – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    Everybody on the floor seems quite on Friday as traders remain cautious ahead of Sunday’s first round of French election. However, early-day comments from Bank of Japan Governor, favoring easy monetary policy, and US policymakers’ indications for Trump’s probable tax-plan offered intermediate market moves.

    Thursday proved to be another weak day for the US Dollar as three-week high Jobless claims and a soft Philly Fed Manufacturing Index trimmed the greenback’s latest gains. The EUR remained volatile, but closed in positive, as polls concerning French election showed centrist Emmanuel Macron and anti-EU candidate, Marine Le Pen, both winning the first-round but the Pro-EU Macron beats his counterpart during the second-round; though, there was an instance in Paris wherein one police officer was shot dead which weakened the regional currency a bit. Further, the GBP also strengthened ahead of important Retail Sales figure whereas JPY and Gold trimmed witnessed another round of profit-booking. Additionally, AUD, NZD and CAD gained on commodity prices; however, Crude stretched its latest downturn on supply-glut concerns.

    As we come closer to busy and important days of the present-week, traders are waiting for announcements before grabbing any opportunities. EU’s Flash reading of Manufacturing & Services PMI, together with UK Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, US Manufacturing & Existing Home Sales are some of the data-points that could offer intermediate moves to market-players before Sunday’s French election rules sentiment.

    Looking at the forecasts, EU & UK details are less likely to propel additional up-moves of the respectively currencies, namely EUR & GBP, whereas Canadian CPI and US data-points may help CAD and US Dollar to gain a bit. However, the greenback could continue being a troubled major by posting second back-to-back weekly loss unless any extreme positives erupt from US political-frame.

    Concerning French election, the EUR could become a hit if centrist Emmanuel Macron and other than Marine Le Pen come forward after first-round; though, in case of Macron’s defeat, regional currency may plunge quickly. Hence, it would be better for traders to remain cautious ahead of French-election outcome but intermediate opportunities favoring USD can be availed during the day.

    Technical Talk

    USDJPY’s successful close above 109.30 presently helps it to aim for short-term descending trend-line of 109.60 and the crucial 110.00 resistances; however, the pair can’t be termed strong unless it surpasses 110.00 on a daily closing basis while present political uncertainty at France favors brighter chances of its pullback to 108.80, 108.40 and the 108.00 consecutive immediate supports. On the contrary, EURJPY is likely declining towards 116.70 & 116.50 rests with 117.50 being adjacent upside figure to observe. Additionally, EURUSD again aims for 1.0760-70 and the 1.0800 during further advances while 1.0700 and 1.0680 may act as short-term supports.

    Have a nice trading-day ……

  7. #747
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    Daily Fundamental Dose: 24 – April – 2017

    Hello Traders,

    While soft US data-points portrayed another weekly drop of the US Dollar Index (I.USDX), the EUR’s struggle to enjoy upbeat PMIs seems coming to an end after Sunday’s French election put pro-growth centrist, Emmanuel Macron, and far-right nationalist, Marine Le Pen, as winners of the first round with almost all the polls expecting Macron beating the anti-EU contestant in final round on May 07.

    The GBP, which witnessed a drop on shrinking Retail Sales, extended its south-run whereas JPY and Gold plunged as traders’ relief from French election pushed them to trim safe-havens. Further, the AUD registered weekly loss due to dovish RBA minutes and the CAD weakened with higher than expected US stockpile dragging Crude prices to south but the NZD remained strong with rising Inflation figure.

    On early Monday, traders had the reason to be optimistic as the worry over probable French exit from EU faded after majority of polls showing Emmanuel Macron being next leader of the EU’s big economy. That helped curbing safe-havens gains and propelled noticeable EUR up-moves; however, the same couldn’t last for long as the regional currency started witnessing profit-booking before major markets open. The AUD and NZD trimmed some gains on China’s latest signal to have a strict watch on financial markets while CAD strengthened after receding political-risk and signal from OPEC committee to extend production-cut beyond June propelled energy prices. On the US side, President’s tweet to announce big Tax plan on April 26 and fresh threat from North-Korea to flaunt the nation’s arms on 85th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army on Tuesday seems continued hurting the greenback while the scheduled GDP release is also expected to weaken.

    Moving forward, EU optimism is likely to keep propelling EUR after global markets open while Canadian Wholesale Sales and speech from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari could offer intermediate moves of the CAD and the USD respectively. Also, JPY and Gold may refrain from further declines on escalating tensions from US government shutdown on April 29 and North Korea’s Army-day celebration. Furthermore, Australian and New-Zealand markets are closed for the day and could signal less moves of AUD and NZD.

    Technical Talk

    Even if French results propelled EURUSD towards 1.0900 resistance, the pair failed to surpass the same and a dip below 1.0810 immediate support could further stretch the profit-booking towards 1.0770-60. The EURJPY also failed to clear 120.40-50 resistance-region and may re-test 118.00 on the break of 118.70 whereas AUDNZD struggles to clear 1.0760-65 horizontal-line and can revisit 1.0710 and the 1.0695 supports.

    Have a nice trading-day ……

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