COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment - Page 192
Page 192 of 432 FirstFirst ... 92 142 182 190 191 192 193 194 202 242 292 ... LastLast
Results 1,911 to 1,920 of 4316
  1. #1911
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    2,541
    Here is a little piece of news - note the first sentence, the last 3 words.

    The US haven't raised taxes, Mike am I right? - if not then where would the increased tax receipts come from - increased economic activity, maybe that accounts for the increase in business confidence in Oct.

    Wonder will that translate into NFP.

    U.S. Borrowing Needs at Lowest Since 2007 as Economy Strengthens - Bloomberg

  2. #1912
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,394
    Quote Originally Posted by peterma View Post
    Philip, there's 3 asset classes that investors use, Stocks, Bonds and commodities. I'll not make a big long boring speech, so maybe just go back about 100 years -
    and

    Quote Originally Posted by peterma View Post
    Up went our best known commodity, that famous black stuff (I'm speaking of Guiness, it was around 30p per pint) and so also oil.


    These are the sentences which gives me good mood after a hard day.

    Peter, if I make your story even a lot shorter, can I make the statement that we should invest our hard earned money the following way:

    inflation: commodities
    disinflation: stocks
    deflation: bonds

    Good night everyone
    FE
    Last edited by ForExchange; 11-04-2014 at 06:46 PM.

  3. #1913
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,394
    Quote Originally Posted by BBalazs View Post
    To be honest, I don't trust any of the sites. I like to do my own analysis so I can be sure that it is done right.

    I don't think there's a faster way to create these unique charts. It takes about half an hour to cover 10 years of data with pictures once you have a template for it. Should I share it tomorrow?

    There is no trick to Willco. It seems slow because we don't even have one years of data. Since my studies usually start from 2003, that means 10 years of Willco.
    Hi BB,

    yeah a template tutorial would not be bad. As you see I try everything you wrote as I think it has a huge value to success. But no work no success. So I do it all.

    One concern though is the very slow process. I will work on efficiency on the weekend. I was thinking when you said: For a new product I need about 10 minutes to copy+paste all data and setup the analysis.

    Well it took me to make those analysis for Nikkei (and for the wrong one...) 90 minutes on the weekend. The historical analysis was altogether another 90 minutes. And we are talking about only one market! I think I will look over and try to optimize. It may not look very important, however I covered only 3 markets since last COT report (crude was fast as I was ready with it, I added Nikkei and USD/RUB). If I would be twice as fast, I would be not sharing 6 markets and potential other trade ideas.

    So I think all your tutorials are good, I am interested to see a template. Also I might write once in detail, step by step to you how I make my new market analysis into the templates and you can tell me which steps are inefficient and how can I make the process faster.

    FE

  4. #1914
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
    Posts
    993
    Hey guys.

    Tuesday results.

    NZD: +7 -0 0///+5 -0 0
    AUD: +5 -1 1///+4 -0 1
    CHF: +5 -1 1///+1 -1 1
    EUR: +4 -3 0///+1 -2 0
    JPY : +2 -4 1///+1 -2 0
    GBP: +2 -4 1///+1 -2 0
    USD: +1 -6 0///+1 -2 0
    CAD: +0 -7 0///+0 -5 0

    Comms took this one. +4

    Name:  2014-11-04_2000.jpg
Views: 273
Size:  17.9 KB

    Hey guys. Good stuff flying there. I will have to get to it all in the a.m.
    And btw...I haven't noticed any tax increases here in the USA.


    PS...I still am struggling with how to import the COT data into my excel sheet. *nod,nod,nod*
    I'm trying. If you have any DETAILED steps, I would appreciate it.


    Mike

  5. #1915
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    356
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Wolski View Post

    PS...I still am struggling with how to import the COT data into my excel sheet. *nod,nod,nod*
    I'm trying. If you have any DETAILED steps, I would appreciate it.

    Mike
    Which part are you struggling with?

  6. #1916
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    2,541
    Looks like everyone played by the rules during Asia, USD up, Gold down, took Silver with it.

    The only bright spark is Nat Gas, whether that will hold out or not is hard to tell.

    UK services pmi out - will affect GBP, Asia is betting on a slip here.

    I like FE's analysis, The index is a bother right now, investors seem to be hesitating, they are eyeballing further up but waiting for a move.
    Frustrating, just have to stay flat until they decide.

  7. #1917
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
    Posts
    993
    Hey BB.
    Well, I got as far as setting up the columns and rows. And I go to the site, click on the "excel" button for it to download the data, and I probably have it downloaded somewhere on my computer, but I can't find it. I simply cannot put that data into the sheet. I don't know where it goes to and even if I did, I don't know how to get it into the columns. I see the button "data" at the top of the sheet, and it brings up, on the left, from where to import it from, but I don't understand anything after that. I just need detailed step by step how to get that data into the columns.


    Mike

  8. #1918
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    356

    Default Introducing ProGo and Williams' VIX Fix

    Hey Traders!

    This week, instead of a study, I want to show you how to calculate ProGo & Williams' VIX Fix indicator, using Microsoft Excel.

    I fancy the idea of combining the COT indicators (not price-derived) and price derived indicators. I believe it could give us a serious edge instead of just staring at the charts trying to make sense of the current price action.

    So, today, let me introduce ProGo and VIX Fix.

    ProGo

    I believe the indicator was first introduced in Larry Williams' book, Trade Stocks and Commodities With the Insiders - Secrets of the COT Report. I won't go into details here, you can see the reasoning behind it's effectiveness on page 125.

    The formula is pretty simple. You subtract today's close from the opening and calculate a 14 moving average.

    Name:  1.jpg
Views: 308
Size:  44.7 KB

    We don't care about the value of the indicator. All we have to do is look for divergences between the indicator and the price itself.

    Price rising - ProGo declining = Bearish
    Price declining - ProGo rising = Bullish

    Williams' VIX Fix

    I can't help but loving this indicator. You must be familiar with the VIX Index, and how that measures the volatility in the S&P 500. Traditionally, high VIX readings are associated with bottoms in the S&P 500. I simply apply Bollinger Bands on my VIX chart to see when "fear" is relatively high in the market.

    Name:  2.jpg
Views: 284
Size:  43.9 KB

    Unfortunately, we don't have that kind of Volatility Index for Stocks, Futures, ETFs and Currencies.

    That's where VIX Fix comes in. See, Mr Williams developed this indicator which produce the same movements as the VIX itself, without the need of the extremely complicated calculation method. On top of that, it is price-derived, so you can use it on ANY instrument.

    Here's the formula: WVF = (Highest (Close, vara) - Current Low)/(Highest (Close, vara))*100

    Name:  3.jpg
Views: 278
Size:  42.0 KB

    Since it can be calculated Weekly, it would take no more than half a minute / instrument to update the data in Excel.

    There, you have it. I'll add the indicator to my database on the weekend because it looks really promising.

  9. #1919
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    356
    Turns out my platform has an in-built user friendly application to create indicators. I'll give it a try, I might be able to create some of the indicators so I won't have to type everything in Excel.

    I think I managed to create ProGo. Fascinating. I was struggling in my programming class for 4 years without getting anything useful out of it. But my time has come! Just kidding. I'm still suck at writing programs

    BEHOLD! ProGo indicator in action.

    Name:  1.jpg
Views: 252
Size:  49.6 KB

    This was the easy one. Next comes VIX Fix. I expect that to be much more difficult.

    Walk in the park :P I had a hard time figuring out that you cannot have "space" in the name of the indicator. Apart from that, everything works fine

    ProGo + Williams VIX FIX (WVF)

    Name:  2.jpg
Views: 241
Size:  51.3 KB

    In theory, it is possible to obtain data from an outside source. I'll try to program the COT report tomorrow. Wish me luck.
    Last edited by BBalazs; 11-05-2014 at 10:25 AM.

  10. #1920
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    356
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Wolski View Post
    Hey BB.
    Well, I got as far as setting up the columns and rows. And I go to the site, click on the "excel" button for it to download the data, and I probably have it downloaded somewhere on my computer, but I can't find it. I simply cannot put that data into the sheet. I don't know where it goes to and even if I did, I don't know how to get it into the columns. I see the button "data" at the top of the sheet, and it brings up, on the left, from where to import it from, but I don't understand anything after that. I just need detailed step by step how to get that data into the columns.


    Mike
    You probably have the raw data in the "Downloads" folder. You need WinRar to open it because it is compressed. If you unzip it, you should see the Excel file with the data in it.

Forum Sponsors

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 05-29-2009, 04:50 AM
  2. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-28-2009, 09:15 AM
  3. Trading in Japanese Market Hours
    By javierpuga in forum Beginner Questions
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 07-31-2008, 11:23 AM
  4. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 09-25-2007, 09:51 AM
  5. Do trading systems affect market movement?
    By broberson in forum Trading Discussion
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 02-28-2007, 08:01 PM

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
"There is no substitute for hard work."
Thomas Edison