COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment - Page 201
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  1. #2001
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,394
    Hi Team,

    I just wanted to say it has disadvantage that we are slow with the process of covering all markets. Yesterday I clicked Timingcharts.com through, every single product if there is a COT signal. It is of course not as exact as our analysis, but as we cover a few markets, it was a lot better than nothing. I researched after the products where I found signals and entered 3 small buy positions which I want to hold for long-term:

    Wheat, Soybean and Cotton

    Besides the Commercial COT readings, I found some seasonal trends and entered the trades without absolutely no further knowledge than COT. We will see if it is enough to make a winning long-term trade in unknown markets.

    BB or anyone else, negative or positive thoughts are welcome. All products were on COT extreme a little while ago and I thought the price is still good for long-term trades.

    FE
    Last edited by ForExchange; 11-11-2014 at 04:31 PM.

  2. #2002
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Over the moon
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    827
    Hi FE,

    How about this. On distribution. I'll take EUR, CHF from majors AUD and NZD from commdolls /I have a soft spot for them / So thats that the currencies. As far as I know you do JPY. So I'll leave yen for you.

    From agricultural commodities let me start off with corn and wheat assuming they aren't taken just yet. I'll settle down with those for now. What do you say ?

    I was tempted to do coffee and sugar. Was thinking of actual coffee & sugar. Yeah, how logical/rational of me.

    I'm going to be a little slow on analysis until I get it - the whole process. One at a time.
    Last edited by Nebula9; 11-11-2014 at 06:35 PM.

  3. #2003
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,394
    Hi guys,

    Rookie,
    nice chart on Copper, COT is also on extremes (as BB also confirmed). Tell us when you see the signal to go long.

    Mike,
    you are more and more quiet. Talk to us! What is with you? I just saw your daily chart but there were no words. That is strange from you, buddy.

    BB,
    don't mess up that course. It sounds good and hopefully the thread can be proud of you. I do not know how you found it or if it cost you money but make us that summary in the end. We are excited for sure.

    FE

  4. #2004
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,394
    Quote Originally Posted by rookie39 View Post
    Hi FE,

    How about this. On distribution. I'll take EUR, CHF from majors AUD and NZD from commdolls /I have a soft spot for them / So thats that the currencies. As far as I know you do JPY. So I'll leave yen for you.

    From agricultural commodities let me start off with corn and wheat assuming they aren't taken just yet. I'll settle down with those for now. What do you say ?

    I was tempted to do coffee and sugar. Was thinking of actual coffee & sugar. Yeah, how logical/rational of me.

    I'm going to be a little slow on analysis until I get it - the whole process. One at a time.
    Hi Rookie,

    that is a strange time to see you aroung the thread!

    So about the distirubtion. I have bad news to you. I am sorry. If you check BBs post (number 1971), he already analysis Sugar and Coffee. I am sure that hurts you but if you really want to do it, discuss it with BB in PM and tell us the result. Or just meet up guys and decide it with pure strength. Man vs. Man.

    There is also some problem with currencies :-))) You are greedy! You forgot that if you make 4, I make 2 and in case Philip and Mike want to participate then there is only 1-1 left. So I would say we give some time for our two collegaues to answer. Let's say two days :-) Besides the 4 pairs, I would suggest to change the selection a bit. The problem is you chose exactly the currencies which have a very high correlation. I think it would be good to give AUD and NZD for two separate people and CHF to separate with EUR. If we only do the two of us then instead of EUR or CHF you can take GBP and instead of one comdoll CAD. IMO that would make more sense. Besides that I am also greedy and want to have either NZD or AUD!

    It seems like it is good that we started already the distribution as it will take some time to discuss it. From agricultural commodities I would only like to have Soybean as I am in it. You can choose what you want but please also look at BBs list.

    And you can also choose an index. BB took S&P, choose which one you wish and I take from the rest.

    So as far as I understand you also add 1 product/week to your database. It is not bad. I also do it that way. We have a little time until we set it all up but I do not think the 2 months will change too much. In the beginning it really takes time but now every week it goes better to me. And I already have some products so it is more and more every week.

    I am waiting for your answer,
    FE

  5. #2005
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    USA. Pittsburgh, Pa.
    Posts
    993
    Hey guys.
    Tuesday results.

    NZD: +6 -0 1///+5 -0 0
    AUD: +6 -0 1///+5 -0 0
    GBP: +4 -2 1///+1 -2 0
    EUR: +3 -2 2///+1 -2 0
    CHF: +2 -3 2///+0 -2 1
    CAD: +2 -4 1///+2 -2 1
    USD: +1 -6 0///+0 -3 0
    JPY : +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0

    Comms took this one. +10

    A couple things I notice. First how NZD is strong. Both days so far. Also GBP has been strong and steady. Sure we will have the strong USD, and their either up or down. Same for the AUD. And we can see where the JPY is going. I think I was right about them. This IS a game changer for them. They are worst than the EUR.

    Ok guys.
    0110 GMT
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    Mike

  6. #2006
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Over the moon
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    827
    Hi FE,

    For currencies I'll do either EUR & AUD, or GBP & AUD. I just can't part with the aussie dollar :-)). I didn't mean to do coffee & sugar you must have misunderstood my point, it was a joke.

    I'll settle down with corn & wheat. And as for indices I'll see what I have at my broker and if thats in with COT report as well and will get back to you. I would like to analyse instruments that I can trade at my current broker and I'm assuming same goes for everyone. I've had US russell 2000 I remember Peter talking about that one. And some other indices called wall st 30, bund I'll figure that out first.

    Let's see what Mike and Philip has to say and we'll go from there.

    And since BB analyses pretty much everything. And his main purpose on this thread is to study historical charts and signals. We've got to catch up with him in terms of database. So I'm assuming it shouldn't really matter if we analyse the same instrument as long as we don't do similar instruments in between us me, you, Mike & Philip in case if they decide to join. My point is we can do the distribution within us or whoever decides to join except for BB. Of course it is ideal that as time goes by everyone develops a database that of like BBs. But for now that should do. Sounds good ?

    Yep I'm going to be doing it your way. I'm planning to introduce one instrument per week. And as with time and experience the whole process should become easier & faster. Bear with us BB! We'll get there soon......

    And I'm /we're/ waiting on your video tutorial

    PS: Lol FE! See i didn't have to use any physical power. All is settled. Or I hope.
    Last edited by Nebula9; 11-11-2014 at 09:59 PM.

  7. #2007
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Over the moon
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    827
    And on copper. Guys...

    Think I'm slowly starting to realize the importance of COT & Willco signals. Its even better if those signals are produced at major weekly S&R levels. That was the case with Copper. At the least it could have been a pretty good short term setup with high probablity.

    And Mike! Hope all is well. I'm guessing you've been reading your book and working up on your game plan all this while. And on setting up the database if you need more direction and help let me know. I'll help out with what i can. But I'm hoping BB would post a video tutorial. We'll see. You don't want to miss out on COT & Willco signals :-))

  8. #2008
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    356

    Default Fast Database update - Part I.

    Okay, I'm new to this video thing and all, but my 2 minutes long video's size is 7GB. That seems a little too much. Instead of a video, I'll give you the steps again with pictures.

    First of all, you should have at least an instrument in your database already, as we are going to use it's template.

    Step #1

    Go to CFTC's website and download the Futures and Options Combined compressed data from '95-2013.

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    Step #2

    Once downloaded, unzip it with WinRar. You should see two excel files, one named Com04_13, the other Com95_03. We will need the former, as it contains the data from 2004 to 2013.

    Now, open it, as well as your Excel database. We'll search for Silver.

    Step #3

    You already know how to search the document, so I won't cover it again. Once you found what you are looking for (Silver), simply copy the data from 2011 to 2013 to a blank sheet in your database.

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    Step #4

    Unfortunately, you have to download 2014's data separately. Do just that, then copy and paste the data of Silver. By now, your sheet in your database should look like this.

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    What we did, is obtain the data from 2011 to 2014 in a few simple steps.

  9. #2009
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    356

    Default Fast Database update - Part II.

    Step #5

    Okay, it's time to create order in the chaos.

    We are going to get rid of all the unnecessary columns. Simply click on the column letters to highlight the content.

    Once you have them, press Ctrl+C and copy the data to a new blank sheet.

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    Step #6

    Now, we are talking! Press Ctrl+A, then sort the database.

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    Here where things gets a little complicated. Make a new blank sheet then copy the database of an instrument you already have. You can do it by pressing Ctrl+A, then Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V.

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  10. #2010
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    356

    Default Fast Database update - Part III.

    We are at the finish line, hang on!

    Step #7

    Copy the data of Silver to replace the other instrument's.

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    There you go, you have your database. All that remains is to make it visually pleasing, but that should be something you can do yourself by now.
    Last edited by BBalazs; 11-12-2014 at 06:32 AM.

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