Hey guys again…
Yellen To Focus On Labor Market At Jackson Hole; Dovish Talk May Lift Gold - Forbes
I did some reading on FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole symposium this morning. And here’s what I found.
In summary at FOMC meeting majority of the members were inclined to increase the interest rate. At Jackson hole symposium Yellen focuses on labor market.
“Many economists said they don’t expect much deviation from her past comments about her concern regarding employment conditions in the U.S., including underemployment and sluggish wage growth.”
“She still views that there might be labor market slack and (is) looking at the broader measures, rather than the actual underlying employment rate. We expect her to be consistent with that,” said Michael Wallace, global market strategist, Action Economics.”
Let’s look back at few indicators that we’ve had this week I’ll try to work on more on my report that I will start from this week and onwards.
Better: NAHB Housing market index — 55/actual/ 53/consensus/ 53/previous/
Building permit MoM — 1.5M/actual/ 1M/consensus/ 0.96M/previous/
Housing starts MoM — 1.09M/actual/ 0.97M/consensus/ 0.94M/previous/
Worse: CPI ex food & energy MoM — 0.1%/actual/ 0.2%/consensus/ 0.1%/previous/
Same: CPI YoY — 2%/actual/ 2%/consensus/ 2.1%/previous/
CPI ex food & energy YoY — 1.9%/actual/ 1.9%/consensus/ 1.9%/previous/
If we look at both CPI YoY so far its coming out just as forecast we don’t see any sign of inflation. Quote Michael Wallace Yellen is looking at the broader measures, rather than the actual underlying employment rate. While majority of the FOMC members were in for an earlier rate hike, if you read the whole article it says not every FOMC member attends Jackson hole symposium but only a select few goes there - the most influential attends this event.
What they’re most concerned at this point is sluggish wage growth low personal consumption. Until this measures pick up much like what BOE minutes had experts believe the rate hike will be later than sooner.
We’ve got few data releases tonight later during NY session. But i don’t think that will change much of Yellens position.
If indicators that are due during NY session turns out to be bullish for USD whether or not Fed decides to increase the rate sooner than later I think we’ll expect to see major moves once again I think. Hang in there Mike! You’ve got it.
NZ Consumer confidence lowers and credit card spending rises at a slower rate. Looks bearish to me especially after low dairy price and cut in key forecasts. I’m looking at pairs to ride NZD down with long term , USD GBP comes to mind for now.
[B]FE…[/B] I looked at GBPNZD setup that you suggested to ride NZD down with longer term. i like the setup , fundamental and sentiment just seems to support that. However what I’m concerned with is that Eurozone is very sluggish now with euro weaking even further and is the biggest trade partner to UK. I wonder if Eurozone will hinder UK’s recovery.
See you around guys in the morning /at your time zones evening for me/