As far as I see not many of you follow these days the COT report or just do not want to share the findings. I checked out many of the instruments again, well it is moving for most of them sideways, not even touching the extreme levels of the COT index.
One possible explanation for that could be that based on the “1 minute commodity trader strategy” I believe we see many trend changes and there are quite some commodities where we have to start looking for buy signals instead of the sell.
I wish everyone a great remaining part of the weekend,
FE
I’d say that the reason for the ‘quiet’ on COT and the likelihood of trend change is reflected in the CRB.
On the EOD chart there are higher lows and lower highs, a triangle or wedge that the technicians refer to.
I suppose this is best reflected in oil intra-day where it seems that on one day the bulls are in command and then suddenly the opposite.
In the midst of these conflicting signals the commercials are trying to hedge their risk, some risking that price will continue in a tight range, others staying on the side.
Best example is perhaps the airline industry - have they been hedging on increased fuel costs up the line or stepping back - not an easy call.
Edit: since never shy of giving my opinion I’d say that the CRB will rise beyond June 16, but may take into Feb 2017 to do so
yes, some time ago you mentioned that on GBP pairs maybe we will see a new base forming for many pairs. It is however hard to see how long the fall might go and when that new base starts to form. I wish you a great week,
And so it continues - the ‘hard exit’ term became the phrase for the ruling party at their conference this week, that term caused another push down on GBP, now we have the tapering talk on Euro.
The ‘excuses’ to sell GBP are becoming even more lose, if sentiment was neutral then the recent UK numbers would have caused GBP buying, but when sentiment is this negative then it would take more than numbers to change things.
Problem is that sentiment is currently being dictated by politicians - so more selling to come.
OH - btw the weekly is now needed on Eur/Gbp - another line broken this morning, likely the providers will be offering 87.50 at 9.00am
The UK PM said last night that she is unconcerned by a 31 year low on cable, so wonder will there be some more years added to that number this week, if so maybe then there might be some concern expressed, if not by ruling politicians then maybe the BOE.
I also follow that pair, I have in my what you wrote about it. It is really interesting how much weakness GBP accumulated, the fall just never really stopped. Wonder where will be the end of it. Would be great if you write when you think investors are stepping in and enter the game on the long side.
The ‘flash crash’ that happened on GBP during the Asia is a symptom of the market sentiment on GBP.
It appears that a few algos are loaded for sells, it going to take a massive shift to change that. Since June 23rd I have to admit that I have never given any thought to where price would reverse, only where it would pause.
The above post was early this morning, BP seems unstable - UK govt minister recently said that too many Business leaders in the UK are too fat and play too much golf on Firdays.
They were blaming fat finger during Asia in a thin market, maybe the same fat fingers were in action before setting off for golf this morning:)
Anyways, all is well for the pound - the BOE are investigating the cause of the selling
Edit: Btw providers now offering 89.00, not sure how many years added to the 31, wonder will the PM have a think about her comments of no concern made earlier.
EURGBP is following your analysis and forecasts, as usually
My question is this time about gold and silver. It seems like I missed something during the week, I was very surprised for the huge sell sentiment. Any ideas what trigerred that move?
I was totally focused on GBP, so much so that I could sense the chatter about Gold but didn’t even look.
Only now I can delve a little deeper - I was conscious of the talk about ECB taper, Draghi was in a sense hushed, not his usual way, I figured some pressure from the Germans, Weidman’s input maybe weighing heavily.
Anyways, looking back I see that Gold reacted negatively on Oct4, on the same day as the Taper story, the USD was happily rising until the break of the taper story whereas Gold had begun to fall a couple of hours before.
Maybe this analysis has some basis, I see Jack the Pipper here on the home page was calling the fall via GLD which we have spoken about maybe a year ago this thread.
Last week gold was the interesting commodity, this time it is crude oil. From a technical perspective we are in a stronger support and also psychological zone.
From a COT Index perspective we have just arrived to the value of 100%. Based on some earlier knowledge (also from the two books) this looks a very interesting situation.
If price would head down, it would be a further confirmation that the downtrend is still valid. If price and COT Index remains up, like it did some month ago, then at least from a COT perspective we would be looking for buying opportunities in the future.
Yeah, Gold traders seem to be watching the USD, fair chance of more buying on that currency so likely more gold selling.
Oil is interesting, buying right now cannot be construed as bottom picking, the interesting thing is the CRB, just like oil it made a low in Aug past, the final down day was Aug 2nd,
same day as oil.
The next attempt at a low was Sep1 - just lost the remainder of the post, site is unstable.
Oil seems ahead of the curve at present, likely the OPEC effect, an effect unreliable in the past.
Maybe a fakeout on the recent high, then a squabble within OPEC on production
It was indeed a fakeout, yet another example of using TA and FA and how they both intertwine.
OPEC are a very difficult group to get to work in harmony, especially so when price is against them, seems Iran and Iraq are being blamed on not agreeing to a production freeze.
But yet there was a clear breakout on price.
Some of the really smart guys, those that hint they have a superior knowledge and think they are an elite thus seldom grace these threads, they say we should never ‘predict’.
The more a trader thinks about price behaviour, the fundamentals, always on the right side of the chart, then the easier it becomes to predict.
Have a good weekend FE.
(btw, GBP still on back foot despite good numbers - never a healthy sign for a currency, prediction: cable will fall off a cliff into the ocean next week :))
lol, you & one or two other fanboys clearly have some weird fascination with the broker guys on 16 candles don’t you.
They don’t have a superior knowledge at all, neither have they ever claimed to be an elite group. They’re just a lot more experienced than you & have been around the block a couple times.
Those comments were directed at them by one of your fellow fanboys during one his comical, emotional meltdowns, something they delight in reminding him of whenever the mood takes them.
They simply encourage interested parties to view the playing field through a different lens by focusing on & implementing a minimalist, low maintenance, totally objective & logical approach to identifying, filtering & executing high probability bets.
I think a more accurate representation of that quote was folks have [I]no need to predict[/I], not that they shouldn’t. If you want or need to predict then knock yourself out mate.
The fact they don’t subscribe to the majority of advice, information & material bandied around this site is to their credit & my benefit as far as I’m concerned, & amply justified judging by the regular tales of woe & despondency regularly witnessed around most of these threads.
Many thanks sketcher, good to hear that you are profitable with the filtering and high probability stuff.
Not sure what you mean about ‘fanboy’, long time since I was called any type of boy
Also not sure about all the despondency that you witness on BP, maybe I’m blind to it, apparently that comes with age.
The need to predict for me is paramount, if you can develop that particular trait with success then the market opens up with all sorts of opportunity, from being in business to being an amateur trader.
Take care.
(more conciliatory post than the first :))
Well, to each their own I suppose but I haven’t needed to predict anything to open up the opportunities presented to me as this year closes & next year opens.
Those guys aren’t everyone’s cup of tea, as apparently weren’t the technical template crew, & they don’t fit the profile of your typical forum participant, but I’ll be forever grateful for their input in fast forwarding my automated model implementation courtesy of Tess & Co’s programmers, & also for putting me in front of investors who, in my wildest dreams, I wouldn’t have stood a chance accessing.
They made an assurance that if my results & consistency held up this year punting my own money using their framework they’d give me the opportunity to talk to some serious money & they’ve been as good as their word!
Folks can disparage them as much as they like (& they do) but they don’t know the half of it & those fella’s won’t & don’t need to brag or boast about it either. They literally could care less what anyone thinks of them. But boy, when you actually meet them & see what’s going on behind the curtain it certainly raises an eyebrow or two!
DoubleEcho (Scott) & apache (jose) linked me to a long standing successful punter in September through to years end, where not only am I currently executing my deals alongside him from his institutional sized account, but also receiving 1to1 options tuition to improve & enhance my risk, defence & offensive tactics going forward, which I’ll need when I take up a split funding deal early next year. I’m damned if i’m going to put all this work in only to crawl along for the next few years punting a typical retail sized account.
They needn’t have done any of that, certainly not to the extent they have, but it further confirms they practice what they preach & put their faith in the concepts they present by divvying up to those who have the nous & wherewithal to step up, stay disciplined/focused, get their arses in gear & evidence their progress.
I wonder if anyone of you will even see this, (I hope Peter does)
When it comes to fundamentals and longer term view and some future prediction there’s no better place than here
So as I was scrolling through trade economics one thing caught my attention the government debt / GDP figure and how most developed nations have enormous debt with US at 104%, Japan 229%, Italy 132%, Greece 176%, Canada and Spain in the 90%. And in comparison China is at 44% and Russia at 18%.
I know I shouldn’t be making any conclusion based off of this number alone, but here we’re talking about government debt not private sector. I just don’t understand how the world is so concerned about China getting through the economic slowdown (transition) when most of the developed nation’s debt looks much more concerning.
And where do you guys think US economy and dollar stands after the election ? Any one of you done inter market analysis ? Peter, FE, Philip ?
EDIT: maybe I should have also looked at the current account balance but in the long run logically speaking money will dry out if there’s no inflow. As working age population shrinks government tax income will decrease. Where do we stimulate growth in the economy as population ages and household/private sector debt mounts ? I read a piece on negative interest rate, from what I read it won’t do much to stimulate borrowing, spending and investment but there’re more downsides. Although I haven’t done any concrete numeric analysis I don’t see a pretty picture.
