Aud/jpy

Jason Rogers · #1 (**permalink**) 07-16-2009, 06:40 PM

This thread for the AUD/JPY. The carry trade is coming back.

Jason Rogers · #2 (**permalink**) 07-20-2009, 11:08 AM

AUD/JPY charging ahead. Long position is doing nicely, and may add to it if today's candle can keep up it's bullish move throughout the day. The retracement from the high feel to the 38.2% fibonacci quite nicely.

Jason Rogers · #3 (**permalink**) 07-21-2009, 10:07 AM

AUD/JPY daily candle closed above the downtrend line which is a good sign. Up 185 pips on the trade, but one thing that's concerning is the COT data which shows traders becoming more bullish on the JPY. Here's the story COT Positioning Warns of Yen Weakness

Jason Rogers · #4 (**permalink**) 07-21-2009, 01:12 PM

The downturn in stocks is weighing down on all of the JPY pairs including AUD/JPY. Possibly reaction before Bernanke's house panel discussion at 2pm ET.

cadarkitek · #5 (**permalink**) 07-21-2009, 02:32 PM

The fact that it didnt break support@70.40 is a strong sign that the bullish trend should continue, a break of 78.30 would add value to that. On the other hand its now showing resistance on the back side of the broken up trend line. Theres also fibonacci convergence from the last 2 down swings on the daily. I think we will see further bearish pressure should the present daily bar close as an engulfing bearish candle.

Jason Rogers · #6 (**permalink**) 07-21-2009, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cadarkitek

The fact that it didnt break support@70.40 is a strong sign that the bullish trend should continue, a break of 78.30 would add value to that. On the other hand its now showing resistance on the back side of the broken up trend line. Theres also fibonacci convergence from the last 2 down swings on the daily. I think we will see further bearish pressure should the present daily bar close as an engulfing bearish candle.

Hi cadarkitek, and welcome to the AUD/JPY thread.

I agree, the decision to make is whether I want to hold it for a possible retest of 70.40. In the end I think it's a good long term trade so I will hold. I also drew another fibonacci retracement to forecast a potential target. Putting the most recent consolidation between the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements would call for a move all the way up to 94.75. This could take months to develop.

Jason Rogers · #7 (**permalink**) 07-23-2009, 12:39 PM

AUD/JPY broke above the downtrend line so I added to the position. Average buy price now moved up to 76.104

The chart below is a 60 minute chart. Compare it to the daily chart from the previous post and the trend line. I added the trend line to the 60 minute chart and it was testing this trend line earlier this week, but has now been able to trade above it for 12+ hours which is good enough for me.

Fundamentally, the rally in stocks has probably helped put risk aversion in the back seat giving a boost to the trade, so three cheers for the stock market.

Jason Rogers · #8 (**permalink**) 10-28-2009, 12:49 PM

AUD/JPY getting hit hard today (along with most of the JPY crosses). EUR/JPY was setup nicely for a short at 138 for anyone that caught it. Bounced 3 times off of that level over the last 6 months.