Trade Idea: 2012-11-07 02:40
I ain’t gonna lie - price action on EUR/JPY has been downright U-G-L-Y the past couple of weeks. We’ve seen a lot of choppiness, as the bulls and bears have been wrestling over control of EUR/JPY.
However, it seems to me that the bears could gain the upper hand soon, as price is slowly approaching a falling trend line!
Not only that, but the trend line coincides nicely with the 103.50 MiPs, which was an area of interest last week.
Fundamentally, the trade makes a lot of sense to me as well.
For one, there is still a cloud of uncertainty surrounding the euro zone. Greece still has to vote on new austerity measures before it can receive the next tranche of bailout funds. If that doesn’t get approved, then there’s a good chance that there will be a delay in aid from the Troika.
Meanwhile, nobody knows whether or not Spain is gonna line up for a bailout. This is just fueling even more uncertainty in the markets.
Second, while the Bank of Japan did expand its asset purchase facility, it was much less than what the market was speculating. I think that this has made some traders less convinced that the BOJ will do whatever it takes to weaken the yen, and we could potentially see a stronger yen in the coming weeks.
The major event risk for my trade this week will be the ECB rate decision, which comes out tomorrow. Like many other analysts, I doubt we’ll see a rate cut and instead, could continue to hear more cautious statements about the state of the economy.
But if the RBA rate decision released yesterday taught us anything, a central bank always has a few surprises up its sleeves!
That said, here’s how I’m setting up this sneaky setup:
Short EUR/JPY at 103.50, stop loss at 104.10, take profit at 102.30.
I’ve placed my stop at 104.10, to give my trade a lil’ room to breathe. With the ECB rate statement around the corner, there’s no telling what type of liquidity we’ll see in the markets. With the potential of some wacky moves, I’ll be risking just 0.50% of my account on the trade.
As for my take profit, I’m aiming for the previous lows around 102.30. If all goes to according to plan, I’ll be taking home a sweet 2:1 winner!
