Remember what I said about Trend-Catcher trades which are left open over the weekend always closed as winners? I think I jinxed it! The last signal that I pointed out last week (long at 1.2234) turned out to be a 7-pip loser. Boo!
But, I have to say that I'm pretty happy with how the Trend-Catcher performed. Despite EUR/USD being in consolidation for the most part of the week, it still closed with a 7-pip win.
Here's a breakdown of the trades:
1. Short at 1.2227. Trailing stop hit at 1.2225. -2 pips.
2. Long at 1.2239. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2282. +43 pips.
3. Invalid short signal since RSI did not cross 50.
4. Long at 1.2288. Closed on new crossover at 1.2275. -13 pips.
5. Short at 1.2275. Trailing stop hit at 1.2266. +9 pips.
6. Invalid long signal since RSI did not cross 50.
7. Short at 1.2272. Trailing stop hit at 1.2279. -7 pips.
8. Long at 1.2281. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2258. -23 pips.
9. Short 1.2258, still open...
Having a 50-pip trailing stop in place kept my losses limited. Also, the RSI did a pretty good job filtering out fakeouts too!
After dropping to its lowest level in more than 2 years, it looks like EUR/USD is starting to pullback. I think this is the perfect opportunity to consider jumping in on the overall trend!
Truth be told, I'd like to sell right at market. But with Stochastic showing that conditions aren't overbought yet, I've decided to wait for the pair to trade a little bit higher. I'm going to sell at around 1.2160, which is the area between the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels.
I'm also thinking that the broken support level could potentially serve as an inflection point. Remember, whenever price passes through a major support level, that level usually turns to resistance.
On top of that, Spanish bond yields are still at unsustainable levels. Although borrowing costs for 10-year bonds retreated from their euro-era highs of 7.62%, they are still above the crucial 7% mark, the level which forced Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to ask for bailouts.
And so, I believe that the pick-up in risk appetite yesterday won't last and has only given me the perfect opportunity to sell EUR/USD at a better price!
Here's what I plan to do:
Short EUR/USD at 1.2160, PT1 at 1.2050, PT2 at 1.1900, SL at 1.2240. As usual, I will risk 1% of my account. (Risk disclosure.)
My HLHB Trend-Catcher System's performance last week was as action-packed as the Olympics! Although there were no big trends on EUR/USD, it still closed with a 150-pip gain! Well that is adding the last trade from the week prior.
Remember trade number 12 from my HLHB update last week (short at 1.2258)? It closed at 1.2117 when the 50-pip trailing stop got hit and garnered a 141-pip win.
For last week, my system generated 11 trades and finished with a net win of 9 pips. Not bad if you ask me since EUR/USD was pretty volatile.
Here's a rundown of the trades that materialized:
1. Long at 1.2126. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2111. +15 pips.
2. Short at 1.2111. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2077. +34 pips.
3. Invalid long signal since RSI was not above 50.
4. Invalid short signal since RSI did not cross 50.
5. Long at 1.2090. Trailing stop hit at 1.2120. +30 pips.
6. Short at 1.2130. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2156. -26 pips.
7. Long at 1.2156. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2124. -32 pips.
8. Short at 1.2124. Trailing stop hit at 1.2167. -43 pips.
9. Long at 1.2224. Trailing stop hit at 1.2281. +57 pips.
10. Short at 1.2248.Traling stop hit at 1.2292. -44 pips.
11. Long at 1.2310. Trailing stop hit at 1.2328. +18 pips.
Total Gain (including last week's open trade): +150 pips
Unfortunately, my discretionary trading did not perform as well. I struck out again, bringing my losing streak to three.
This time, it was the result of ECB President Mario Draghi's pledge. According to him, the central bank would do everything in its power to make sure the euro remains intact. This proved to be extremely beneficial for the euro, as it staged a major rally versus the dollar.
Stopped out at 1.2250: -100 pips / -1.0%
Ah, well... I hope there are better days ahead. My confidence is shot, and I need to come up with a winning trade soon...
I've been wrong a lot lately, so this time I'm gonna play it safe. My account has taken a hit with three straight losses. But hopefully, this time around, I'll be able to score a win.
My plan is to buy GBP/USD. If you zoom out to the 4-hour timeframe, you'll actually see the pair making higher lows. A rising trend line also becomes apparent when you connect them. I'm anticipating the pair to find some support at it, around 1.5500.
But I don't want to get ahead of myself so I won't pull the trigger until I see reversal candlesticks materialize around the psychological handle. I have the candlestick cheat sheet from the School of Pipsology printed so I know what to look for!
Another reason I'm very cautious on going long is because of the Bank of England (BOE)'s interest rate decision later. It's widely expected that the central bank will hold rates at 0.50% and hold off on any additional stimulus measures.
If the BOE doesn't say anything bearish and drops clues that its quantitative easing program is working, the pound could rally. On the other hand, if the central bank shows concern on the economy, the pound could sell-off again. I think anything can happen really!
In any case, if I do decide to buy the pair, I'll set my stop well below its most recent low at 1.5440. Should price go down to this level, my trade idea would already be invalidated as it would mean that support at the trend line failed. As for my profit target, I'll be aiming for the resistance area around 1.5720.
To recap, my plan is to:
Buy GBP/USD at 1.5500, SL at 1.5440, PT at 1.5720. Risk 1%. Risk disclosure.