HUCKDATE: Thoughts on EUR/USD

I was also looking to go long at 20. But as I was drawing my pretty lines it started bouncing back. I then got in Long at 05. I closed off at around 65 as it starting getting choppy was worried it might fall again…Issues of having a full time job and trading.

Thanks again. Still a happy 60 pips I made

Ah, 'tis a sad week for the HLHB Trend-Catcher 3.0. Even though the pair trended upwards, the extreme volatility during the middle of the week distorted the RSI, preventing the system to jump in on the trend. In addition, the volatility the pair experienced also kept my trades from staying long enough to profit!

But there is good news: the trade that was left open the week before ended up with a huge win. It closed at the first crossover of the week, which enabled it to bag 150 pips.


You can see clearly that EUR/USD mostly moved higher during the week. Unfortunately, the rally was also a bumpy one! The German Constitutional Court’s ruling as well as the Fed’s FOMC Statement caused the pair to spike a couple of times.

Here are the signals that the HLHB Trend-Catcher generated:

  1. Invalid signal since RSI did not cross the 50.0 level.
  2. Another invalid signal. The RSI was already above 50.0 when the upward crossover happened.
  3. Sold at 1.2780. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2778. -2 pips.
  4. Long at 1.2778. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2767. -11 pips.
  5. Short at 1.2767. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2805. -38 pips.
  6. Long at 1.2805. Closed when 50-pip trailing stop was hit at 1.2822. +17 pips.
  7. Invalid signal since RSI was already below 50.0 prior the crossover candle.
  8. Invalid signal since RSI was already above 50.0 prior the crossover candle.

Overall, including the week prior’s trade, the system brought in a net total of 116 pips. Not bad!

As I for my discretionary system, I didn’t get in on any action last week. I don’t want to sit on the sidelines for long though, this is why I’ll be keeping close tabs on USD/CHF in the coming days. Should a valid trade setup materialize, you can count on me to pull the trigger!

I hope you guys have a good week. Good luck!

XOXO,

Huck


It looks like there’s a bearish confluence on EUR/USD around a previous support area. So this week, I’ll try to score a win by shorting the pair. Wish me luck, pretty please!

Connecting the pair’s most recent highs, we actually see that a falling trend line has materialized. I used the Fibonacci tool and realized that the trend line actually coincides nicely with the 61.8% level and last week’s low around 1.3020. Very tempting, eh?

Fundamentally, I think that there are also a lot of downside risks, especially when you take into account all the things that are going on in the euro zone at the moment.

For one, there has been no request for a bailout by Spain, and there’s nothing to suggest that it’s coming soon. This is very disappointing for market participants, which has led to a lot of “risk off” trades in the last few days.

Also note that yesterday’s PMI readings mostly came in worse-than-expected. PMIs are used to see where the economy is headed, so when they are falling, it also means that the economy is contracting.

Given the technical setup and the current fundamental landscape I have decided to place a sell order on EUR/USD at 1.3020. Here are the complete details of my trade idea:

Sell EUR/USD at 1.3020, SL at 1.3085 (above this week’s high), PT1 at 1.2920 (yesterday’s low), PT2 to be determined. 1% risk. Risk disclosure.

HLHB Trend Catcher


It looks like my HLHB Trend-Catcher 3.0 wasn’t able to mimic its performance from the week before as it produced some negative pips. Here’s a summary of all the signals generated as well as the corresponding results:

  1. Long at 1.3038. Closed at 1.3046 due to new crossover. +8 pips.
  2. Short at 1.3046. Closed at 1.3060 due to new crossover. -14 pips.
  3. Invalid buy signal since RSI was already above 50.0 the candle prior the crossover.
  4. Sadly an invalid sell signal since RSI was already below 50.0 the candle prior the crossover.
  5. Invalid buy signal since RSI was below 50.0.
  6. Invalid sell signal since RSI did not cross 50.0 from above.
  7. Long at 1.2992. Closed at 1.2961 due to new crossover. -31 pips.
  8. Short at 1.2961. Closed at 1.2970 when 50-pip trailing stop was hit. -9 pips.
  9. Long at 1.2974. Closed at 1.2974 when 50-pip trailing stop was hit. Breakeven.
  10. Short at 1.2972. Closed at 1.2933 when 50-pip trailing stop was hit. +39 pips.
  11. Long at 1.2937. Closed at 1.2922 due to new crossover. -15 pips.

All in all, the system generated a small 22-pip loss. While it certainly wasn’t a good week, it wasn’t a terrible one either.

Now, on to some good news…

EUR/USD Short


Indeed, good things come to those who wait!

I decided to wait for EUR/USD to pullback to the 61.8% Fib level and test the falling trend line before jumping in on the downtrend. My strategy proved to be a good idea as price soon dropped and hit my first profit target at 1.2920.

The fundamentals also lined up nicely to my trade idea. According to Pip Diddy, renewed concerns about Greece and Spain caused the sell-off in the euro.

I still have half of my position left open and I think I’ll keep it there until I see any catalyst that could potentially shift market sentiment. Don’t worry, I’ve already moved my stop to breakeven!

I hope y’all had a good week too!

XOXO,

Huck

Do you see what I see?? With price making lower lows and Stochastic making higher lows, I think we have ourselves a bullish divergence on the 4-hour timeframe of EUR/USD! But I’m scared of taking it especially with the ECB rate statement ahead of us.

Anybody brave enough out there to trade the pair?


Unlike GBP/USD, EUR/USD did superbly last week. Here’s a summary of all the signals that materialized:


  1. Invalid signal since RSI was already below 50.0 the candle prior the crossover
  2. Long at 1.3227. Closed at 1.3214 due to new crossover. -13 pips.
  3. Invalid signal since RSI was already below 50.0 the candle prior the crossover
  4. Another invalid signal as RSI was already above 50.0 the candle prior the crossover
  5. Short 1.3182. Closed at 1.3195 due to new crossover. -13 pips.
  6. Long at 1.3195. Closed at 1.3187 due to new crossover. -8 pips.
  7. Invalid signal since RSI did not cross the 50.0 level from above.
  8. Long at 1.3196. Closed when trailing stop was hit at 1.3250. +54 pips.
  9. Short at 1.3240. Profit target hit at 1.3040. +200 pips.
  10. Long at 1.3062. Closed due to new crossover at 1.3039. -23 pips.

Total Gain/Loss in Pips: +197 pips

Excellent gains again! The system really does very well in EUR/USD. Hopefully, it will continue to do so for the rest of 2013.


Unlike GBP/USD, my outlook on EUR/USD is very bullish. The pair, after trading within a very tight range, has finally broken out. It has made new highs and it looks like it’s poised to go higher.

I want to jump in long, but with the pair very far away from both the 100 and 200 SMAs, I think we could see a pullback soon. I’m going to watch this pair closely for a possible entry around the 38.2%-50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels.

Read about my take on the fundamentals on my blog: The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob

I mentioned in my Pre-Week Market Analysis on Monday that I was bearish on EUR/USD. I also stated that I was looking to short the pair once it pulls back to a higher price. I think the time has come to finally sell the pair!


As you can see, the pair has finally found its way to the 200 SMA and Fibonacci retracement levels. With the Stochastic showing that conditions are overbought, I think we’ll see price find resistance around the 1.3500 level. My bearish bias is also confirmed by the “lower highs” that the pair has been making.

So, once the pair tests the 61.8% Fib, I will pull the trigger and go short. I will place my stop at 1.3550, well above the 200-SMA and 78.6% Fib. I’m ultimately aiming for new lows, but I will take part of my position off the table if the pair tests the most recent swing low at 1.3360.

On the fundamental side of things, I think that the upcoming G20 meeting this weekend will be generally bearish for the euro. Forex Gump talked about how the shared currency seems to be in a tug-of-war with policymakers voicing out their opinions on its recent strength. In this silly little barista girl’s opinion, we could see the euro trade lower if the debates carry on further.

To recap, here’s my plan:

Short EUR/USD at 1.3490. PT1 at 1.3360. PT2 yet to be determined. Stop loss at 1.3550. Risk disclosure.

There ya have it! That’s my trade idea for today. What’s yours? Tell me all about it by writing in the comments section below, Facebook, Twitter, or Meetpips!

XOXO,

Huck

(Originally posted from my blog, The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob)

For Tuesday, the EURUSD is now showing strong bullish pattern in its candlestick sentiment from last week’s oversold levels, as prices are now rising in its momentum, due to its Bollinger Bands 21 line opening in its lines for prices to move in a vertical pattern. Currently, prices are now moving now at 1.3013 breaking its key resistance level of 1.3001, and might show more strong bullish movement for the coming hours, since prices are now rising near in the overbought level indicating that prices are determine to show bullish trends at the moment. As its 5-day EMA, 9-day SMA and 21-day SMS is now showing bullish trend in its pattern. As its 63-day SMA (olive line) and 84-day SMA (black line) does indicates that prices might create bullish movement and might continue to show more positive trading for the coming session as prices are now being supported by the Bollinger Bands 21, as its lines are still opening in.

In its economic outlook, the markets are now showing slight positive signals, as Euro-zone finance ministers supported and approved on Monday the release of fresh rescue loans to Greece, while Cyprus received its first emergency loan from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). In addition, Greece won its two next bailout installment, totaling 7.5 billion euros. It will receive a tranche of 4.2 billion euros later this week after officials from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) meet in the coming days. The second sub-tranche of 3.3 billion euros will be disbursed in June once Greece has met key measures agreed with international creditors, aka Troika. Inspectors are expected to pay Greece a visit in the next few weeks.

Thus, expect prices to show strong bullish trends as its RSI (14) and MACD (9, 26, 12) showing that prices is now near in the overbought level.

EUR/USD H1,H4,Daily and Weekly Video Analysys on
EURUSD DXY Elliott Wave Analysys 171013 - YouTube

Enjoy!

So now are we going to 1,1450??


EUR/USD: Keep an eye for a range breakout, notes the key upside and downside levels for EUR/USD, and sees a break below 1.1019 to remove any long positions on the pair.

EUR/USD: Awaiting the nonfarm payrolls Leung sees bearish potential for EUR/USD if the US nonfarm payrolls prints a strong number. He expects the pair to break below 1.08 levels on a strong US jobs data.

See up trend for EUR/USD on D1 timeframe



On H4 see a correction movement in ABC triangle. If price movement after triangle is bullish - buy, if bearish - sell.

The price is still on the same level in triangle. So I’m also steel waiting for breakeout. Yesterday were false jumps on news, but then everything was back. Get ready for entry signals. Try to be patient)

EUR/USD is rallying again to the upside after a long time! I am waiting for further gains!

Elliott Wave Analysis: EURUSD in a flat correction

EURUSD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline from 9/8 peak is unfolding as an expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9/8 high (1.2094), Intermediate wave (A) ended at 1.1837 and Intermediate wave (B) ended at 1.2034. Intermediate wave © is in progress as 5 waves. Minor wave 1 of © ended at 1.186, and bounce to 1.2 ended Minor wave 2 of ©. Down from there, Minor wave 3 of © ended at 1.1716, and bounce to 1.1832 ended Minor wave 4 of ©. Minor wave 5 of © remains in progress and can reach as low as 1.16207. This area will also complete Primary wave ((W)) and end cycle from 9/8 peak. Afterwards, pair should bounce within Primary wave ((X)) to correct cycle from 9/8 peak in 3, 7, or 11 swing before turning lower again.

Alternatively, if pair extends below 1.16207, then the entire move lower from 9/8 high could be labelled as 5 waves impulse. In this case, the current decline will only end Intermediate wave (3). Then pair should bounce in Intermediate wave (4) before the decline resumes again.

EURUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

EURUSD Intra-Day Elliott Wave Analysis

EURUSD Intra-Day Elliott Wave view suggests the decline from 9/8 peak remains in progress as an expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9/8 high (1.2094), pair ended Intermediate wave (A) at 1.837. Bounce to 1.2034 ended Intermediate wave (B). Intermediate wave © remains in progress and unfolding as 5 waves impulse where Minor wave 1 of © ended at 1.186, and Minor wave 2 of © ended at 1.2. Down from there, Minor wave 3 of © ended at 1.1716 and bounce to 1.1832 ended Minor wave 4 of ©.

While EURUSD stays below 1.1789, it has scope to extend lower in Minor wave 5 of © and reach 1.1586 – 1.1633 area. The move lower will also end cycle from 9/8 peak and complete Primary wave ((W)). Afterwards, Pair should bounce in Primary wave ((X)) to correct cycle from 9/8 peak in 3, 7, or 11 swing at least. If pair breaks above 1.17899 from here without making a new low, pair may have ended Primary wave ((W)) already.

EURUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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