Hi guys! I’ll be re-posting all of my trade ideas on EUR/USD and weekly updates on the HLHB Trend-Catcher in this thread from my blog, The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob. Wee! I’m so excited to hear your thoughts about them.
XOXO,
Huck
So EUR/USD is now trading around 1.2300. One the 4-hour chart we see that the pair has previously found support at the level. On top of that, there’s also a bearish divergence too!
What do you think? Will resistance hold?
Good, I think the resistance will hold if the market don’t jump higher on a strong news.
Which charting do you use for that analysis?
I think we can se a decline in this pair to test the new low at the 2160 area. The market have been doing lower lows for the last 10 months and we are in a bigger perspective also doing lower lows, the 2008 low, the 2010 low and hopefully soon, The 2012 low. I also belive that there is no fundamental that would strengthen the euro in the next months. And a trend turnover would have to be a couple of hundred pips. Just my thoughts.
Am not seeing a bearish divergence here (maybe am wrong) i see bullish. more over connecting the lows, what am seeing is higher lows, which gave us a strong support and at the same time if we are to go up, we have a strong resistance to battle with. enjoy
dont you think if we clear 1.2340 we are in for 1.2400?? enjoy
Yikes! Looks like the pair just tapped a new high for the week. Now I’m wondering if it will be able to close above 1.2300.
I use Xtick 
I just posted an update! It looks like EUR/USD broke higher at least on the 1hr tf. But it hasn’t closed yet.
Noticed the higher lows just today. Thanks for the heads up!
I see that a move as a fake out, trigger some longs above Asia high then head back down.
fake break out?? that means we are going south? let see i like the northern part anyway enjoy
Did ou notice the bounce off the 4h trend line plus a bearish divergence on 1hr?
enjoy
Xtick charting platform? How is it compared to MT4 (if you use MT4)?
Thank you!
are we seeing a new low? there is a break out in the triangle on the 4hrs
enjoy
HLHB Trend-Catcher
Remember what I said about Trend-Catcher trades which are left open over the weekend always closed as winners? I think I jinxed it! The last signal that I pointed out last week (long at 1.2234) turned out to be a 7-pip loser. Boo!
But, I have to say that I’m pretty happy with how the Trend-Catcher performed. Despite EUR/USD being in consolidation for the most part of the week, it still closed with a 7-pip win.
Here’s a breakdown of the trades:
- Short at 1.2227. Trailing stop hit at 1.2225. -2 pips.
- Long at 1.2239. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2282. +43 pips.
- Invalid short signal since RSI did not cross 50.
- Long at 1.2288. Closed on new crossover at 1.2275. -13 pips.
- Short at 1.2275. Trailing stop hit at 1.2266. +9 pips.
- Invalid long signal since RSI did not cross 50.
- Short at 1.2272. Trailing stop hit at 1.2279. -7 pips.
- Long at 1.2281. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2258. -23 pips.
- Short 1.2258, still open…
Having a 50-pip trailing stop in place kept my losses limited. Also, the RSI did a pretty good job filtering out fakeouts too!
After dropping to its lowest level in more than 2 years, it looks like EUR/USD is starting to pullback. I think this is the perfect opportunity to consider jumping in on the overall trend!
Truth be told, I’d like to sell right at market. But with Stochastic showing that conditions aren’t overbought yet, I’ve decided to wait for the pair to trade a little bit higher. I’m going to sell at around 1.2160, which is the area between the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels.
I’m also thinking that the broken support level could potentially serve as an inflection point. Remember, whenever price passes through a major support level, that level usually turns to resistance.
Fundamentally, there hasn’t been any real positive development in Europe. Pip Diddy reported that the euro rallied from its lows yesterday following ECB Member Nowotny’s remarks about the advantages of giving the ESM a banking license. However, the fact is, Germany hasn’t even approved the rescue fund yet!
On top of that, Spanish bond yields are still at unsustainable levels. Although borrowing costs for 10-year bonds retreated from their euro-era highs of 7.62%, they are still above the crucial 7% mark, the level which forced Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to ask for bailouts.
And so, I believe that the pick-up in risk appetite yesterday won’t last and has only given me the perfect opportunity to sell EUR/USD at a better price!
Here’s what I plan to do:
Short EUR/USD at 1.2160, PT1 at 1.2050, PT2 at 1.1900, SL at 1.2240. As usual, I will risk 1% of my account. (Risk disclosure.)
XOXO,
Huck
*Cross-posted from my blog, The Loonie Adventures of a Forex Noob
Connection went down when I was about to enter my trade! Drats! I jumped in at market instead and sold EUR/USD at 1.0250. Wish me luck!
curious… what happened to your last short?
which charting software are you using?
Thanks Huck!
My HLHB Trend-Catcher System’s performance last week was as action-packed as the Olympics! Although there were no big trends on EUR/USD, it still closed with a 150-pip gain! Well that is adding the last trade from the week prior.
Remember trade number 12 from my HLHB update last week (short at 1.2258)? It closed at 1.2117 when the 50-pip trailing stop got hit and garnered a 141-pip win.
For last week, my system generated 11 trades and finished with a net win of 9 pips. Not bad if you ask me since EUR/USD was pretty volatile.
Here’s a rundown of the trades that materialized:
- Long at 1.2126. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2111. +15 pips.
- Short at 1.2111. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2077. +34 pips.
- Invalid long signal since RSI was not above 50.
- Invalid short signal since RSI did not cross 50.
- Long at 1.2090. Trailing stop hit at 1.2120. +30 pips.
- Short at 1.2130. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2156. -26 pips.
- Long at 1.2156. Closed due to new crossover at 1.2124. -32 pips.
- Short at 1.2124. Trailing stop hit at 1.2167. -43 pips.
- Long at 1.2224. Trailing stop hit at 1.2281. +57 pips.
- Short at 1.2248.Traling stop hit at 1.2292. -44 pips.
- Long at 1.2310. Trailing stop hit at 1.2328. +18 pips.
Total Gain (including last week’s open trade): +150 pips
As for my EUR/USD trade…
Unfortunately, my discretionary trading did not perform as well. I struck out again, bringing my losing streak to three.
This time, it was the result of ECB President Mario Draghi’s pledge. According to him, the central bank would do everything in its power to make sure the euro remains intact. This proved to be extremely beneficial for the euro, as it staged a major rally versus the dollar.
Stopped out at 1.2250: -100 pips / -1.0%
Ah, well… I hope there are better days ahead. My confidence is shot, and I need to come up with a winning trade soon…
XOXO,
Huck
I’ve been wrong a lot lately, so this time I’m gonna play it safe. My account has taken a hit with three straight losses. But hopefully, this time around, I’ll be able to score a win.
My plan is to buy GBP/USD. If you zoom out to the 4-hour timeframe, you’ll actually see the pair making higher lows. A rising trend line also becomes apparent when you connect them. I’m anticipating the pair to find some support at it, around 1.5500.
But I don’t want to get ahead of myself so I won’t pull the trigger until I see reversal candlesticks materialize around the psychological handle. I have the candlestick cheat sheet from the School of Pipsology printed so I know what to look for!
Another reason I’m very cautious on going long is because of the Bank of England (BOE)'s interest rate decision later. It’s widely expected that the central bank will hold rates at 0.50% and hold off on any additional stimulus measures.
If the BOE doesn’t say anything bearish and drops clues that its quantitative easing program is working, the pound could rally. On the other hand, if the central bank shows concern on the economy, the pound could sell-off again. I think anything can happen really!
In any case, if I do decide to buy the pair, I’ll set my stop well below its most recent low at 1.5440. Should price go down to this level, my trade idea would already be invalidated as it would mean that support at the trend line failed. As for my profit target, I’ll be aiming for the resistance area around 1.5720.
To recap, my plan is to:
Buy GBP/USD at 1.5500, SL at 1.5440, PT at 1.5720. Risk 1%. Risk disclosure.
XOXO,
Huck