Hey All,
For those who trade patterns,
What do you think of this?
Bro, you see a bearish bat/ possible butterfly, I look back a bit deeper and see a bullish 121.
Either way, your XA line and my CD line form our retracment and something is about to happen. The 1.38000 mark is providing a natural resistance level which the markets seems to respect. Looks like where waiting for some news to come out of the USA to tell us which way to go. Something similar happening on the GBPUSD. Head over here and take a look http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/60066-harmonic-trading-zup-indicator.html
I am trying to get a dedicated thread up and running for us price pattern trader. Come join the discussion.
But the best piece of advice on pattern trading I have received is “Trade what you see”. So I see is a bat with point D in a PRZ and the PRZ at a natural price resistance zone. I think there are alot pips to be made be made of these two pairs in the next few days, we will have to wait for the market to tell us which way to go but
Bobbi - great stuff, love the community who puts input and give us traders more eyes to their analysis !
heading over to your thread
EURUSD Daily Outlook for 13th December, 2013 (Friday)
Daily Chart
“Ending the day lower but still in range of last two days”
Ending the day lower with a bigger rejection from the .38 handle.
Stochs is extremely overbought
RSI divergence (from oct high to our recent similar high)
Hourly Chart
“Our Bearish Bat identified yesterday on our 4H chart is seeing some results”
We tried to penetrate the 1.38 handle again, and failed to stay above, forming a double top in two days, together with a Bearish Bat identified and the drop yesterday was good confirmation factors. However, we are not confirmed that the bat is in play yet until we break the 1.370. If we manage to get down there, there is a possible pattern (Bullish Crab Pattern) , which we are forming the C-D leg now
Possible still for both ways (long / short)
Larger time frame (4h) we might be in the bearish bat, however a possibility of a bearish butterfly is still possible (where we go higher from 1.38)
Therefore, if a possibility of a butterfly to form, there is a upcoming Bullish crab forming in the H1 charts to try to penetrate the 1.38 level with a clearer break.
Outlook Trade opportunity
Our short term price targets is around the 1.370 -71 handle, so we will go short from 1.37675 pull back, and try to ride it down to the 1.370-71
#1 - Short from 1.37675 - TP1 at yesterdays low, then TP2 at projected forecast with stops BE
#2 - Long from 1.370-71 - TP1 20pips, then TP2, 35pips, TP3 - possible ride to .38 +
Risk Level MEDIUM
Love your work bro. Just to note I’ve taking the plunge and gone short on this trade @1.37535 (SL @1.37790 and TP 1.36965 - 38.2 and 161.8 retracement) Would have like to have seen some more positive news from the US last night but I think holiday sediment will flow back to the USD over the next week. Maybe???
Thanks mate,
I"ve taken my profits on short on eurusd overnight
Now what do you think of this bullish crab?
Same bro. Closed order @1.37257 made 27.8 pips. (made 75.9 on GBPUSD). And sorry bro, don’t see a crab there. Don’t like the X point, C or point D. I presume your on the 5min chart, heres what I’m looking at CoT.
Here our bullish A-Butterfly is pre-succeeded by a very nice bullish Gartley Any other day I would be getting excited here but this has formed at close of trade Friday. I wont trade on Monday’s. Markets can be funny. I am going to use this trade as an example over in my thread and see how it plays out.Come Have a look Bro
Hi guys
The pattern i identified last friday worked out quite well, I have taken profit yesterday.
Please checkout my intraday trade setup for today
Cheers
Howard
Twitter : Forex_Trader168
Good call bro. Gutsy but. Did you have the trade open over the weekend or did you wait until market open? I don’t normal trade fri arvo or monday. Also do you do higher TF analysis first or you just scalping (for want of a better word) straight of the chart?
Actually i had it opened over the weekend. (which i normally don’t, but i was quite confident of the setup that i just let it run).
I analyse each pair everyday, and for this one this is what happend
- Over the 4hr chart - there has been a bearish bat for for quite a while (over a week now), but market seems to want to push higher
- i know market sentiment for traders for eurusd is all time high for shorts, which gives it a possibility for market to test higher to take them all out.
- based on above, high chance for creating new highs and a bearish butterfly can still be played out
- so to create higher highs, this bullish crab spotted friday creates a high chance of working
please have a look at my blog daily-forex-trader.blogspot.com.au for my analysis each day.
Cheers
Hey Guys
Just updating you guys and hope you guys survived the tapering news last night
My previous prediction of a fresh new high did not succeed, and overnight we formed a lower low in a Daily chart point of view.
Therefore the Bearish Bat from the 4h identified many days (2 wks i think) ago, should be in play and we may find
This Bullish Bat from a 4hr,
Levels to watch is for the next support which comes in 1.3636 (61.8 retrace level of this months Upward move) We may see a bounce there, and go back up to test the 1.3700 area (we we could join the party) before heading towards 1.34
EURUSD Daily Outlook for 20th December, 2013 (Friday)
Daily Chart
Euro Continued to go lower, and now getting close to major support area of 1.3620
We expect the market to stall and minor retrace at this area
Hourly Chart
good buying opportunity right now while i post this blog!
Prices are at major support area (61.8% retrace from swing from december)
another 61.8 level from oct high to nov low
good s&r area from day chart, 4hr, 1hr charts
We expect the market to stall at this area and retrace from the recent down trend
Outlook Trade opportunity
Go long now at around 1.3620 - Have three levels of TP 1.365, 1.36670 and third is 1.37 with stops b.e
Cheers
Howard
EURUSD Daily And Weekly Outlook for 30th December 2013 (Monday)
Weekly Chart
Trend - Bullish
[ul]
[li]Ascending Trend line since July 2013
[/li][li]Third weekly candles showing holding above 1.365-1.37
[/li][li]Stochastics - Crossed / Down
[/li][li]Weekly Candle - Shooting star / Bearish
[/li][li] Close to Weekly Descending Trend line which spans from 2008 , 2011 second touch, 2013/14 potential third touch
[/li][li]Clear rejection from 61.8% back from downtrend from 2011
[/li][li]Confluence of levels of 161.8 fib extension of first leg from July 2012 low to first week of Sept 2012
[/li][
3 Bullish points, and 5 Bearish Points
[/ul]
Jan 2011 (same levels)
There are more bearish signals from my bullet point summary above, then there is bullish. However zooming into major support, we are still trading on major support level of 1.365-1.37 which we are holding for the third week.
If you look at the candles in January 2011, trading around the same levels which we are currently in, there were shooting stars showing bearish (3 x consecutive week), and finally the fourth and fifth week the bulls win the race and headed higher for many weeks after.
Currently pure price action this tells me it wants to go higher,
In October it broke this major level
Following two weeks broke back below it,
Then following 7 week we regained the drop and now trading back above the major level
whats next? - If it goes higher, I will target the 127.20fib ext (1.3970) which will have a potential butterfly pattern to the downside
Currently pure price action - this tells me it wants to go higher, but will it? … lets see a lower time frame
Daily Chart
[ul]
[li]Trend Ascending / Bullish
[/li][li]Ascending Trend Line respected third touch
[/li][li]Stochastic are pointing upwards
[/li][li]RSI reading is 60
[/li][li]Trading above major support
[/li][li]Friday candle is bearish (shooting star), however is in a messy area and not a clean area. - eg if you look left, what do you see? lots of action!
[/li][/ul]
5 Bullish points, and 1 Bearish point
If I were to look at just Friday’s candle alone, I would go short, however on a bigger picture where that candle is, its not appealing, and even if the short side of things, you have the ascending trend line + major resistance not far from.
From my analysis on this daily chart, there are too many bullish points, at this stage any trade, I will look for a long opportunity.
Hourly Chart
Huge spike which hit the R2 Weekly Pivot and also the 127.20 extention
Stochastic are extremely oversold, and has crossed lines but not clear
RSI reading is around 50
The retrace is currently paused at around the 61.8 fib back (if drawn from the low of 20th of Dec
If we draw the fib from the 24th Dec low, we have broke the 61.8 back, and potentially looking for the 78.6 back which is last weeks pivot weekly / 1.37060 level , This will be a retest of the breakout level, which could potentially find new highs. Any break below this area will have to reanalyze further trades direction
Still looks bullish to me
Outlook Trade opportunity
Please look at my hourly chart, I have two yellow levels,
one at a 61.8 fib / 1.37270
second at the 78.6fib / previous wks pivot / 1.370 levels
If my forecast (bullish) is right, the question is will it retrace to my second entry, because after such strong move up? , safest way for entry is to wait for price action confirmation for entry
Risk Level - LOW
EURUSD forecast the week 13th January, 2014
Daily Chart
[ul]
[=left]Resume of bullish momentum is expected this week due to a weaker US Dollar both technical and Fundamental
[=left]If we break through 1.372 we may see a tripple top or my earlier forecast of a new high of 1.395
[/ul]
[B]
[/B]
Hourly Chart
[ul]
[li]On an 4hr chart the most recent swing was down, so we will look for an opportunity to short it (although it may contradict the daily chart analysis which is a longer term view)[/li][li]The 1.372 level is a place to look closely where it has three obstacles (fib retrace 61.8 and two fib extensions confluence)[/li][/ul]
[I]Outlook Trade opportunity[/I]
[B][I]As 4hr chart suggest, a sell order around the 1.372 level.[/I][/B]
[B][I]
[/I][/B]
Risk Level LOW
EURUSD Forecast for the week 20th January, 2014
Daily Chart
[ul]
[=left]After beginning the week a tad higher , we hit resistance around the 61.8% retrace and continued lower
[=left]We have found temporary support at a 61.8% retrace from NOV low to Dec Highs,
[=left]Price action shows very heavy pressure and looks like a potential to go lower
[=left]Stronger support is lower at around 1.345 which is a confluence of a fib extension of 127.20 (reverse calculation of most recent swing retrace) & a 161.8 fib ext (of the Dec highs swing down to first week of Jan) and Also which is a Mid Monthly pivot from S1 to S2.
[*=left]At this stage, trend traders would look for opportunity to short if Monday / Tuesday provides some retrace and Target 1.345 (As shown in 4 hourly Chart)
[/ul]
[B]
[/B]
4 Hourly Chart
[ul]
[*=left]A very good potential short setup if a retrace to the 38.2/50/61.8 fib level with confirming price action candles to follow the short to find lower lows
[/ul]
[B][/B]
Hourly Chart
[ul]
[li]Monday Asian session hourly candle had shown price action tried to break lower, but with another candle recovering (engulfing or a railway candlestick pattern) - this is showing market finding support at this current stage and wants to retrace higher before continuing down [/li][li]On my hourly chart, I have only shown possible counter trade levels [/li][/ul]
[I]Outlook Trade opportunity[/I]
[B][I]This week I have a few trade setups.[/I][/B]
[B][I]
[/I][/B][B][I]Trend following Trades - [/I][/B]
[B][I]1 - Please look at the 4h Chart and Daily Chart[/I][/B]
[B][I]
[/I][/B][B][I]Counter Trend Trades[/I][/B]
[B][I]2 x Trade levels on the 1H Chart[/I][/B]
[B][I]
[/I][/B]