In today’s EUR/USD forecast I am going to recommend continuing to stand aside on this pair and look for opportunities in other pairs. It does like like the Smart Money is starting to accumulate, but whether they will actually reverse the market to the upside and change the trend, or just retrace for a continuation down is still unclear. It is too soon to tell, but I do think that there is a potential for a trend reversal, but for the next week or so I think the pair will probably just bounce up and down in a range.
Once I’ve identified a clear direction I will let you know, until then look for other pairs to trade. For example the GBP/USD has a clear reversal signal to the upside, but I would like to see a substantial pull back to the 1.6010 level before I think about taking a trade.
In today’s EUR/USD forecast I am going to look for it the pair to drop further. Although we did get a rise on Monday and Tuesday it failed to continue to break to the upside and the trend is still down. However Draghi speaks today, which in itself would probably not be an issue, but we also have several key economic indicators coming in from the US. With that said I would probably be looking to enter the pair short on a substantial retrace, somewhere around the 1.2740 level only if you are getting an overbought signal on your technical indicators.
I would look for the drop to occur sometime on Thursday between 7:00-9:00 am or between 13:00-17:00 (GMT+7)
On Monday I mentioned that I was looking for a reversal to the upside on the GBP/USD, however after the CPI report came out on Tuesday the pair took a big drop, and none of my technical indies lined up so I passed on it.
In today’s EUR/USD Forecast I am going to recommend looking for long trades. After the economic data came out on Wednesday we had a shift in the trend to the upside. With that said I would recommend looking for a fairly substantial pull back and waiting until the 4hr. chart becomes oversold before entering a trade. I will be looking at the 1.2720-30 level for support. Again make sure the technicals and VSA line up before entering a trade. My time based indicators are saying that there isn’t going to be a setup until next Monday so I will probably not enter a trade.
If you choose to enter be careful of the fact that it is Friday and that you will either need to close your trade off quickly or hold it over the weekend, which is something that I rarely do.
Trade Review
Last Wednesday I recommended looking for a short on Thursday, but when I saw the trend shift that took place after the US economic data came out I canceled the trade and began looking for buying opportunities.
In today’s Forecast I am looking for the EUR/USD to continue up. The trend has switched to the upside and I am looking for it to continue to pull back to a support level at around 1.2720. This would put it near a daily pivot point as well as close to the 200 Day Moving Average. The price at the moment is 1.2764, so it needs to pull back a fairly substantial amount, and given that I don’t see any announcements today this may not happen.
My time based indicator says that the momentum is up for most of the day and that we should look for a move to occur around 16:00-19:00 (GMT+8)
Today I am looking for the pair to continue upwards. We had a substantial pullback to a support level and am looking to enter at around 1.2710. CPI numbers are coming out later on, but other than that the day looks rather uneventful. We’re seeing a fairly precipitous drop on the daily ATR, which means that volatility is decreasing, so if you do enter this trade, you may need to hold onto it for awhile before you see it move, so don’t be too hasty to enter.
My time based indicators are giving a reading between 13:00 to 16:00.
I am still looking for the EUR/USD pair to move up. The weekly cycle down looks to be complete, and now it appears that we are in accumulation period. However having said that my technical indicators don’t look to be set up the way I would like them to be. My 4 hr. Cycle indicator is moving into an overbought area, when I would like for it to be oversold. The same with the 1 hr. cycle indicator. With that said if you choose to enter this pair on a Friday I would do so with extreme caution. I have a buy order set at 1.2600 and I will likely cancel it by 15:00 (GMT+8) if it doesn’t trigger by then.
Trade Review- It has been a bit of a frustrating week. I missed the bottom by 10 pips on Monday when I called the entry at 1.2720 and the low was 1.2730. The market then rallied 100 pips. My entry on Wednesday was much too early and I got stopped out for a 25 pip loss.
It still looks like the direction for the EUR/USD is up. However we are still facing the problems that we had last week in that the technicals are still not right on the 4 hr chart and the pair hasn’t pulled back enough in order to give us a safe entry. It does look like the weekly cycle down completed on the 23rd and the cycle up started on the 24th, which also matches the trend. Also the weekly Pip estimate was met, which does lead me to believe the pair will continue up.
However I need for at least the 1 hr. chart to become oversold and would like to see a pullback to around the 1.2635-40 level. I’m not sure that we’ll get back all the way down here or not, but that’s the safe buy area for me. I don’t have any specific buy times today.
The EUR/USD has been moving up as I predicted it would, but not in a very orderly fashion. In fact it has been quite choppy and difficult to get on. Nevertheless the trend and the cycle are both still up so I am going to look to enter the pair on a pullback. I would look to enter the pair between the 1.2680-1.2690 level, but only if your technical look good. At the moment the Schaff Trend Cycle indicator that I use to read the cycles is over sold on the hourly chart which is a good sign, but not enough. I would also like to see my Smart Money Indicator move to the high side, which would indicate that smart money is starting to get onto the move.
I do have a buy signal at between 18:00-20:00 (GMT+8) but am only going to pay attention to it if I get a good pullback.
ppy Halloween!! It appears that I called the cycle on the EUR/USD incorrectly. We were actually in the middle of a down cycle in an uptrend, and it appears that the trend may be turning as well. In any case I don’t see a trade materializing today. I mentioned on Wednesday that I thought the pair would pull back to the 1.2670 level and reverse, but that support level got crushed. I never entered the trade because the technicals weren’t looking right.
I did manage to pull 120 pips out of a long trade on the EUR/JPY, but unfortunately it’s gone on to run for another 130. If the EUR/USD manages to close below the 1.2595 level today then the trend change will be complete and I will be looking for shorting opportunities on the pair next week. Otherwise I will keep my long bias.
I’m sorry that I’ve neglected this forecast for the past 10 days. I was occupied with another business that I was working on getting started. Anyway at the moment the EUR/USD is moving counter trend to the upside. It could continue and breakout but I think what is more likely to happen is that it will become overbought on the daily chart and start to fall again. With that said I think it’s going to be at least a day maybe more before we see a viable trade on this pair. So my recommendation is to stand aside and look for opportunities on other pairs. However I don’t see anything at the moment, but I am keeping my eye for the Pound US Dollar to get overbought for another drop. But it could be another day for that to happen.
If you go to the Free Resources area of my blog I’ve added several new indicators that I use on a daily basis to forecast the markets. These include the daily pivots, the trend indicator, the Schaff Trend Cycle and the Better Volume Indicators. I use these in conjunction with several other tools, some of which are proprietary and will teach in a course later on next year. But for now you can add these to your repertoire free of charge. I hope that you find them useful. Make sure to download the PDFs that accompany the Schaff Trend Cycle and the Better Volume so that you will understand how to use them.
I am looking for the EUR/USD pair to take a drop. The trend is still down and it looks like the cycle up is about complete. I would like to see one more exhaustion blow off to the upside before I consider entering the pair however. I would like to see it move back to the 1.5250 to 1.5280 level before I consider entering and I will do so only if the 4 hr. is Over bought and my other technical indicators look good. I am looking for this drop to occur someplace between 17:00 and 21:00 (GMT+7).
We are getting into a rather volatile period of the year in which moves can be pretty big so hopefully when we see the drop occur it will make a substantial move.
Well I definitely called the direction correctly even if my timing was a bit off. I unfortunately only managed to take about 8 pips from the move as the technicals didn’t look right on Wednesday so I closed out early before it spiked up toward the 1.26 level. I never got the re-entry price that I wanted so I missed the big drop down.
At the moment the market is a bit hard to read. It looks like we are mid cycle to the downside, but with that big drop the cycle might have also completed (even though it looks like we are short on the pip movement). Either way I do think we have more to go to the downside, the question is how much upside will it move before it starts to drop again. The first resistance level I am looking at is the 1.2475-80 level. If it gets there and the technicals look good with the 60 minute smart money indicator and the Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) overbought I’ll consider a trade. I’m not seeing anything as far as a specific time is concerned.
I am still looking at the EUR/USD for the short side. The 4 hr chart looks good technically speaking, but I am waiting for a signal on the 30 minute to confirm my forecast, so I am not jumping in quite yet. The price area I am looking for it to reverse at is the 1.25 to 1.2520 level. However as I mentioned I want to get a definite signal from my indicators on the 30 minute chart before I enter.
The time I am looking for it to take a drop is around the 20:00-22:00 (GMT+7). Hope this helps and Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!
In Today’s EUR/USD forecast I am looking for the pair to continue to drop. I did manage to get an entry at 1.2520 yesterday and held it until a few minutes ago for about a 60 pip gain. I think it will drop more but it’s Friday and I don’t plan on holding the trade over the weekend so I thought I’d cut and run. Nevertheless it’s still mid cycle down so I do expect to see more movement to the down side.
On Wednesday I “The price area I am looking for it to reverse at is the 1.25 to 1.2520 level. However as I mentioned I want to get a definite signal from my indicators on the 30 minute chart before I enter.”
The high was at around 1.2522 so it was a fairly accurate call even if my timing wasn’t perfect. The pair has just dropped another 20 pips from my exit point so I probably exited too early.
We are mid cycle down and the trend is down so I am looking for this pair to continue to drop. I want to see a retracement to the 1.2490 level first and will only take the trade if my technicals on the 60 minute chart are lined up. I managed to squeeze about 60 pips out of a trade that I’d entered on Thursday evening. The pair did continue to drop further, but then it reversed so I was happy with the 60. The markets have been choppy quite a bit lately making trading conditions very difficult on this pair so make sure everything is lined up before pulling the trigger.
I’m sorry that I am posting this rather late, but there wasn’t an opportunity to reenter the pair anyway. We appear to be mid cycle down still, but I think the pair may retrace or go sideways for awhile before it drops again.
Trade Review On Monday I said-
“We are mid cycle down and the trend is down so I am looking for this pair to continue to drop. I want to see a retracement to the 1.2490 level first and will only take the trade if my technicals on the 60 minute chart are lined up.” As you can see by the chart below. I was spot on. The high was at 1.2506, so I was within 16 pips of the top. If you are int his trade congratulations. It’s fallen about 185 pips so far. If you’d used a 25 pip stop loss that would give you a risk to reward ratio of more than 1 to 7. With that said I would seriously think about closing the trade or at the very least trailing the stop closely. I do think the pair has some more to fall, but the retrace back up could be substantial before it continues to fall. 12-1-2014
It doesn’t look like there are any trading opportunities on the EUR/USD for today, or any of the other pairs that I trade for that matter. If you made the drop on the EUR/USD that I called on Monday then congratulations. I of course missed my own call, as I was already in a short trade on the GBP/USD by the time the EUR/USD set up. I did manage to squeeze out 66 pips on two trades on the GBP/USD but would have loved to get the big 185 drop that I called on the EUR/USD. Hopefully next time. have a nice weekend.
In today’s forecast I am recommending to stand aside. As I mentioned in the last forecast the counter trend strength looked strong and we did indeed see a big move to the upside this week. Despite the fact that it looks like the move is starting to subside the Schaff Trend Cycle indicator on the daily chart has still not hit the over bought level. Because of this I still see the 4 hr. and Daily charts as being at odds with one another which means too much uncertainty in the direction of the market. So again I’m recommending to stand aside and wait for things to sort themselves out next week. Have a good weekend.
I’m sorry that I haven’t posted for awhile, but I wasn’t seeing the setups that I wanted to. Anyway happy new year all. The EUR/USD is in strong downtrend. However it appears that the weekly cycle down has completed. With that said I would like to see some more upside then downside. However I need to see that the STC is overbought on the 4 hr. and that my Smart Money Indicator is also signaling down. So I will look for a reversal point at around the 1.2 level and I’m looking for this to occur between 7-9pm tonight (GMT+7).
Hi I’m sorry that I’ve been ignoring my blog as of late. It looks like the weekly Cycle down has completed. Unfortunately it also looks like the Monthly cycle may be completing as well. What this means is confusion. We will likely get a big move back to the upside. However since that is a counter trend move we need for the STC to setup on the Daily Chart and even then I rarely take counter trend trades. So I will be sitting on the side lines for the Euro/USD. I am seeing a similar setup in the GBP/USD as well and it looks like the monthly cycle has completed.
Once the daily STC has become overbought, provided that the trend remains down I will look for the downside to continue. So on these 2 pairs I’m going to remain on the sidelines until the direction becomes much clearer.
