Technical News | Daily

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT REJECTS FALLING PRICES, US DOLLAR STILL IN MEDIUM TERM CONTROL

EUR/USD

Forex News: Thanksgiving Day brought low volatility, especially during the New York session and the US Dollar gave back some of the previous gains. The German IFO survey came close to analysts’ forecast so the release didn’t have a notable impact.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0525 rejected downside momentum yesterday and now the bulls are struggling to take the pair above the resistance at 1.0570. If they succeed in doing so, we will probably see a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0650. The day ahead lacks major economic releases and we expect a ranging session, without special developments. That being said, keep in mind that the pair is still in a downtrend and the US Dollar shows signs of strength.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a lacklustre day as far as the economic calendar is concerned so the main focus will be the technical side.

GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar moved without conviction yesterday, ranging between the Moving Average and the resistance at 1.2480. This behaviour was partly generated by the U.S. celebrating Thanksgiving Day and partly by the lack of British releases.

Technical Outlook

The ranging period is likely to continue until 1.2480 resistance or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken. When one of these events will take place, we expect price to continue moving in that direction but until a clear break occurs, our view is neutral on the pair. The oscillators are moving in the middle of their channels, lacking a clear direction and adding to the overall uncertainty.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Second Estimate version of the Gross Domestic Product is released today at 9:30 am GMT and may be a catalyst for a breakout. The GDP is the main gauge of overall economy performance, thus higher numbers than the anticipated 0.5% may bring Pound strength.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI TESTIFIES ON BREXIT CONSEQUENCES. EURO WILL NOT REMAIN INDIFFERENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s movement was choppy and without special developments. The pair remained above 1.0570 but bearish pressure is mounting and rejection candles are present.

Technical Outlook

As you can see on the chart above, the candles show long wicks in their upper parts and this is a sign of bearish pressure. Price came close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the bulls couldn’t even manage to touch this form of resistance and the overall trend is down so we expect to see a move below 1.0570. However, keep in mind that on a Daily chart both oscillators are deep in oversold territory so a stronger move north is not out of the question, especially if the 50 EMA will be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only important event is the testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi, delivered before the European Parliament’s Economic Committee on the topic of monetary developments, economic perspective and Brexit consequences. These are all delicate subjects that may affect strongly the market, thus we recommend caution. The scheduled time is 2:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

The Second Estimate version of the British GDP, announced Friday matched analysts’ expectations (0.5% change) and the release didn’t have a strong impact. The pair remained in a tight range.

Technical Outlook

Price is trapped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.2480 but the chances of a breakout are very high, especially because the distance between the two barriers is so small. Given the fact that the pair has been moving almost completely sideways lately, our view is neutral until a strong move or a clear breakout occurs. Once that happens, the pair is likely to continue in the direction of the break.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements for today and this makes the technical aspect the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: A FULL DAY AHEAD: GERMAN INFLATION DATA, U.S. GDP AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

EUR/USD

Forex News: After a brief move above the resistance located around 1.0650, the bears took control of yesterday’s session and the pair descended to touch support. The higher than usual volatility may be attributed partly to Draghi’s testimony.

Technical Outlook

It seems like the US Dollar is trying to gain back control over the pair, pushing it lower for another attempt to break the key support located at 1.0525. The oscillators are moving downwards, supporting a bearish move and the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. As long as things remain this way, we favour the short side and anticipate a break of 1.0525.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT we take a first look at German inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. The indicator acts as a measure of inflation, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. A higher change than the forecast 0.1% can strengthen the Euro.

The Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product is released later at 1:30 pm GMT, with an anticipated change of 3.0% (previous 2.9%). The GDP is the main gauge of overall economic performance and usually a higher reading triggers strength for the currency.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the Consumer Confidence survey comes out, showing the opinions of U.S. citizens about economic and business conditions. A higher number than the forecast 101.3 would show optimism, acting as a leading indicator of consumer spending, and would strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro-Dollar, this pair climbed above resistance early during yesterday’s trading session but soon gave up all the gains and dropped lower.

Technical Outlook

We can consider yesterday’s move above 1.2480 a false break, so the zone will still act as resistance in the future. The bounce lower brought the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now we can expect a touch of 1.2325. It must be noted that the Moving Average is flat, without clear direction and the pair is still in range mode until it clearly moves above 1.2480 or below 1.2325.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases so the pair’s direction will be decided by the U.S. data mentioned earlier and by the technical aspect.

[GDMFX]

[B]FOREX NEWS: ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA TO REVEAL THE DOLLAR’S NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD[/B]

Forex News: Despite the multitude of economic indicators released yesterday, the pair remained relatively unfazed and stayed between support and resistance for the entire day.

Technical Outlook

Price touched the support at 1.0570 and quickly bounced to the upside, touching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This leaves us with a bounce-or-break scenario where the 50 EMA plays the biggest role: a break would signify a short term victory for the bulls and would make 1.0650 the first target for the day, while a bounce lower will test 1.0570 support again. The next targets would become 1.0700 zone and 1.0525 but we don’t expect a break of either one unless surprises occur.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT we take another look at European inflation with the release of the Eurozone Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index (CPI). The indicator is the main gauge of inflation and can bring Euro strength if it posts a reading above the forecast 0.6%.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change comes out, showing changes in the number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming sector and government. The indicator is less important than the Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday but nonetheless, higher numbers than the anticipated 161K can strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Price action was mostly dominated by the bulls yesterday and the pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but for the time being, the ranging period is still not over.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved above the 50 period EMA and above the resistance at 1.2480 but as seen a day before, price had similar behaviour and then reversed to the downside. This means that we still don’t consider 1.2480 broken and we don’t exclude the possibility of another fall through the Moving Average. The pair’s direction remains uncertain and range-bound trading is still in play.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Bank Stress Test results are revealed today and this may have an impact on the Pound but may also go mostly unnoticed. During these tests, synthetic market conditions are applied to large banks to determine their financial stability and potential risks; the time of the release is 7:00 am GMT.

[GDMFX]

GDMFX LAUNCHES A WIDE ARRAY OF NEW DEPOSIT OPTIONS FOR BINARY OPTIONS AND FOREX

GDMFX is proud to announce the addition of more than 40 new local deposit methods, including the hugely popular SOFORT, Boleto Bancario, Itaú, Banco do Brasil and Bradesco, to name a few.

Traders from around the world will now be able to use their favorite local payment providers to fund their GDMFX Accounts, quickly and conveniently.

Furthermore, in line with its vision to provide the most flexible trading environment, GDMFX shall offer almost all of these new deposit options FREE* of charge. And while it can cost up to 5% to fund a popular e-wallet using Itaú or Banco do Brasil for example, with GDMFX the deposit fee collected when you make your deposit shall be exactly 0.

Funding your Forex or Binary Options account is now faster, cheaper, easier and more convenient than ever. Just visit the Deposit Options page of our website and select your country from the Local Deposit Methods menu.

Welcome to GDMFX. FAST. ACCURATE. SECURE.

*As part of an ongoing promotion. Terms & Conditions apply.
Trading involves a serious risk for your capital!

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: NFP TO MAKE-OR-BREAK US DOLLAR’S TREND?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair remained between support and resistance and this goes to show that both sides are reluctant to commit to a clear direction. In the afternoon the U.S. Manufacturing PMI posted a better than expected value and this brought limited greenback strength.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0570 rejected price higher but bullish momentum stopped at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This is typical behaviour for a ranging market so our view is mostly neutral until 1.0570 support or 1.0650 resistance is broken decisively. However, the pair is in a downtrend from a longer term perspective so we slightly favour the short side but keep in mind that today’s U.S. jobs data will overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important U.S. employment data of the month comes out today at 1:30 pm GMT: the Non-Farm Payrolls (also known as Non-Farm Employment Change). The indicator tracks changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and usually generates very strong movement but the pair is prone to sudden changes of direction, observed better on the lower time frames. A higher change than the forecast 165K usually benefits the US Dollar and brings the pair lower.

GBP/USD

The pair finally broke out of the horizontal channel yesterday and the bulls managed to drive it into the next resistance. The move was mostly based on Pound strength, not necessarily Dollar weakness.

Technical Outlook

The resistance around 1.2480 is now clearly broken but we can see rejection at the next resistance, located at 1.2675. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are now both overbought due to the long distance travelled yesterday and this combined with the long upper wick of the latest candle, suggests that a bounce lower is next. If the current resistance is surpassed, we expect the bounce to occur around 1.2770.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event will definitely be the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls but on the Pound side it’s worth mentioning the release of the Construction PMI, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a reading of 52.3. Usually a higher reading indicates optimism but the impact is low if the actual number matches the forecast.

We hope you had a profitable week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SUFFERS TEMPORARY WEAKNESS

EUR/USD

The Non-Farm Payrolls numbers came out very close to estimates Friday but the previous value was revised from 161K to 147K. It’s not uncommon for this to happen but when the number is revised lower, usually the US Dollar has to suffer.

Technical Outlook

Price action remained choppy but had a bullish bias due to US Dollar weakness generated by the NFP revision. It looks like 1.0650 is now clearly broken and the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so the short term picture is bullish but not in a definitive manner. If today price remains above the 50 EMA, we expect a touch of 1.0710.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings take place today and may generate some volatility but this will be limited unless surprising discussions take place. The Meetings are closed to the press but a formal statement is released at the end of the day; sometimes participants talk to the press during the day.

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI comes out, with a forecast reading of 55.3. This is a survey of purchasing managers from outside the manufacturing sector and usually has a mild impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it.

GBP/USD

Friday the Pound had another great day, gaining against the US Dollar and breaking another resistance level. The bias is bullish but the oscillators are overbought.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s climb took both oscillators in overbought territory and this makes us anticipate a minor pullback before 1.2770 is hit. The previous resistance at 1.2675 may turn into support and reject price higher; if this is the case, the chances of a push into 1.2770 will increase. A more important level is located at 1.2855 but we don’t expect it to be reached today.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is released today at 9:30 am GMT and is the only notable Pound affecting indicator. The expected value is 54.2 and higher numbers can strengthen the currency because the survey acts a measure of optimism focused of course on the Services sector.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: GREENBACK CONTINUES TO LOSE. OVERSOLD OSCILLATORS WARN OF RETRACEMENTS

EUR/USD

Forex news: The week opened lower but the gap was soon closed and the pair broke resistance. The move was mostly generated by the Italian Constitution Amendment Vote.

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.0710 opens the door for an extended move into the resistance at 1.0800, which is both a psychological level and a technical level better seen on the Daily chart. However, we are not dealing with an uptrend yet so the possibility of a drop must not be overlooked. When the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic become overbought, we anticipate bearish pullbacks that will probably confirm 1.0710 as support. If this level doesn’t become support, we anticipate a drop below 1.0650.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECOFIN Meetings take place today, attended by Finance Ministers from the EU member states. The event often goes unnoticed but caution should be used because surprises can always happen.

On the US Dollar side we have the Factory Orders, released at 3:00 pm GMT but this is an indicator with a medium-to-low impact on the greenback so we don’t expect sharp moves. A higher change than the anticipated 2.5% shows an increase in production and usually strengthens the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair had similar behaviour to the EUR/USD, opening with a gap lower and then climbing above the point where the gap originated. Most of yesterday’s trading session was choppy but with a bullish bias.

Technical Outlook

For a second time in a short while both oscillators are moving in overbought territory and this calls for a retracement to the downside. It is very likely to see a touch of 1.2770 resistance and then a drop lower but we don’t exclude the possibility of such a move occurring before that level is reached. After this potential retracement, we expect the bullish momentum to resume and 1.2770 to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The British economic calendar is light today, without any major announcements so the pair’s direction will be mostly influenced by the technical side.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS STRONG AS BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS

EUR/USD

The first part of yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bulls, who took price into 1.0800 zone; however, the pair lost steam and bounced lower once the barrier was hit.

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced lower immediately after hitting 1.0800 resistance and now we can expect the bearish move to extend into 1.0710 which may turn into support. If this level is breached, we expect a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but as long as price remains above this dynamic support, the picture is bullish and the probability of another encounter with 1.0800 is high.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s price direction will be mostly decided by the technical aspect because the United States and Europe don’t release any major economic indicators so we have a lacklustre fundamental scene for both currencies.

GBP/USD

The pair continued its climb yesterday and reached the resistance at 1.2770 but now bearish pressure has increased and a retracement is in the making.

Technical Outlook

The control currently belongs to the bulls but the resistance located at 1.2770, combined with the overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index will most likely generate a move lower that is likely to touch 1.2675. If this level will turn into support and price will bounce off of it, then we can expect a break of 1.2770 and a consequent move into 1.2855, which is a level best seen on a Daily chart. These moves will probably happen over the course of several days.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released at 9:30 am GMT and this will be the main market mover for the Pound. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers and usually, higher numbers strengthen the currency because they indicate increased economic activity; the forecast is 0.2%, while the previous was 0.6%.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: EURO STEALS THE SPOTLIGHT. ALL EYES ON ECB PRESS CONFERENCE

EUR/USD

Yesterday the pair slowed down but it is clear now that 1.0710 has become support and until that changes, the bias is bullish. The fundamental scene was quiet and this contributed to a slow session.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is angled upwards and the level at 1.0710 is confirmed as support so the short term bias is bullish and we anticipate a touch of 1.0800. If the mentioned support is broken, we can expect the 50 EMA to push price higher but a break of this barrier would suggest a reversal to the downside. Price direction will be heavily influenced by the ECB Rate announcement and Mario Draghi’s press conference so we recommend caution as the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:45 pm GMT the European Central Bank will announce their decision regarding the interest rate and although no change is expected from the current 0.00%, the event usually generates volatility. However, the pair may be unwilling to choose a direction until the ECB Press Conference takes place, 45 minutes later, at 1:30 pm GMT. During this conference, ECB President Mario Draghi will answer journalists’ questions and will talk about the reasons that determined the rate decision. It’s possible for him to offer hints about future monetary policy and if this is the case, the Euro will respond accordingly.

GBP/USD

British Manufacturing Production disappointed, as shown by yesterday’s numbers (forecast 0.2%, actual -0.9%) and this affected the Pound negatively, allowing the pair to drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

After the perfect bounce at 1.2770, price moved below 1.2675 and is now testing the 50 period EMA on the four-hour chart. It’s not yet clear whether the bears can break it or not but if they do, we expect to see more downside movement, with 1.2480 – 1.2500 zone as first target. Even if price reaches this zone, we don’t expect it to travel in a straight line (we’ll probably see bullish bounces until it reaches support). On the other hand, a quick move above the 50 EMA will make 1.2770 the target once again.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t prepare any special economic releases for today, thus price direction will be decided mainly by the technical aspect.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: EURO ON THE RETREAT ON THE BACK OF DOVISH DRAGHI COMMENTS

EUR/USD

As expected the ECB maintained the rate unchanged but during the ECB press conference that followed, the Euro started to weaken on the back of Mario Draghi’s comments that were perceived as dovish by the market.

Technical Outlook

The Euro took a hit yesterday and after a short lived move to the upside, the pair started to drop and broke through several support levels. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also clearly broken and the medium term bias is once again bearish as long as price remains below this technical indicator. We expect another encounter with 1.0570 and possibly 1.0525 but keep in mind that sometimes after a strong move to one side (like the one seen yesterday), a retracement soon follows.

Fundamental Outlook

Only one important economic release made it to today’s headlines: the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. This is a survey that tries to gauge the confidence of consumers in current economic conditions and usually a higher number indicates that in the future consumer spending will increase. This often strengthens the US Dollar so we may see further downside action for the pair if the actual number will be above the forecast 94.3; the time of release is 3:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the US Dollar made a nice comeback against the Pound after a bounce round 1.2675 which is now confirmed resistance. Bearish pressure mounts but the Moving Average is not yet broken decisively.

Technical Outlook

After a climb early during yesterday’s session, the pair dropped to test the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and although at the time of writing price is below it, we cannot yet consider it a true break. If the pair remains below this technical indicator, we expect to finish the week on a bearish note, with price approaching 1.2480 – 1.2500 but we don’t expect this target to be hit today. A quick return above the 50 EMA will make 1.2675 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

Price action today will be mainly driven by the U.S. Consumer survey and by the technical aspect because the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: KEY SUPPORT LEVELS THREATENED AGAIN, OSCILLATORS APPROACH OVERSOLD

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued the bearish momentum started a day earlier and the US Dollar continued to strengthen against the Euro. Part of the Dollar’s good performance was due to a better than expected Consumer Sentiment survey (forecast 94.3, actual 98.0).

Technical Outlook

Although lately the bears have been in control, the key support at 1.0525 is not broken, the Stochastic is oversold and the Relative Strength Index is very close to its 30 level (which indicates oversold). These factors increase the chance of a bounce higher but as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish. If 1.0525 is broken the pair will test 1.0460, which is the lowest price reached since early 2015.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have any major releases on today’s economic calendar, thus the main focus will be on the technical aspect. After last week’s strong movement, it’s likely to see a slow, ranging trading session.

GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar pair had a choppy session Friday and an early climb was soon reversed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The day ended close to where it started and no major advances were made.

Technical Outlook

Bullish price action found resistance at the 50 period Moving Average but the bearish bounce didn’t continue through Thursday’s low and now the pair is trading without a clear direction. The most part of last week was controlled by the bears and if they can maintain control we will likely see a move closer to 1.2480 – 1.2500 but we don’t expect this target to be reached today. A clean break of the 50 EMA would make 1.2675 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected by major economic indicators today, thus the technical side will be the main market mover.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS TEMPORARY WEAKNESS, AHEAD OF BRITISH INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair found once again strong support at 1.0525 and bounced higher, generating a bullish trading session yesterday. There were no major news releases so price direction was mostly driven by the technical aspect.

Technical Outlook

Lately the level at 1.0570 doesn’t seem to have a lot of importance for price and as we can see it was breached twice without any struggle. However, 1.0525 remains a key support, while to the upside the first barrier is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Today we expect to see an encounter with this dynamic resistance and with the level at 1.0650; if that resistance zone cannot be broken, we expect to see another move to test 1.0525, otherwise the pair is headed for 1.0710 again but we favour the short side as long as price is trading below the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is today’s main release, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to increase to 14.2 from the previous 13.8. This is a survey of about 275 German professional investors and analysts and acts as a leading indicator of economic health focused on the respondents’ 6-month outlook. Higher numbers show optimism and usually strengthen the Euro but the impact is not always very strong.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar had a slow start of the week against the Pound and the pair moved back above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on the four-hour chart. The picture is once again blurry and the pair may be entering another ranging period if a breakout is not registered soon.

Technical Outlook

The pair is testing 1.2675 again, with both oscillators showing good upside momentum and this increases the chance of a bullish break of said level. If this is the case, we expect to see a continued move to the upside during the days to come, but if price bounces lower here, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will become the first target for today. If the moving average is broken, the next destination may be the recent low at 1.2550, which will act as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index is today’s highlight for the Pound. The indicator is the main gauge of inflation and usually has a high impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The time of the release is 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is 1.1% (previous 0.9%).

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: TO HIKE OR NOT TO HIKE? BUCKLE UP FOR MASSIVE MOVES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a choppy session yesterday, without a clear direction and without much movement. The German ZEW survey disappointed and this initially weakened the Euro to a limited extent but the losses were soon erased.

Technical Outlook

Price is still struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0650 and control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. This type of behaviour is likely to continue today until the Fed announce their rate decision and the technical aspect will be secondary. The levels to watch are 1.0650 (current resistance), 1.0700 and 1.0525; be prepared for irregular movement and increased volatility.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a crucial day for the US Dollar as the Fed will announce their decision on the interest rate. The forecast is an increase to <0.75% from the current <0.50% and if it comes true, we can expect to see massive US Dollar strength and increased volatility. The FOMC Statement is released at 7:00 pm GMT and will contain the outcome of the rate decision as well as insights into the reasons that determined it.

Half an hour later, at 7:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference during which she will answer journalists’ questions and will offer more details about monetary policy. The entire cluster of events will probably create irregular movement so we recommend caution until things calm down.

GBP/USD

British inflation improved as shown by yesterday’s CPI release (actual 1.2%, expected 1.1%) and this strengthened the Pound, taking the pair above resistance.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.2675 is now broken so we can expect to see a move closer to 1.2770 but in case price drops through the recently broken level, we will likely see an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic is overbought and this increases the chances of a move lower but it is not a clear indication that price will drop today. Keep in mind that the Fed Meeting will have a strong impact on the US Dollar and thus on the pair.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Claimant Count is released, showing changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment related help. The indicator acts as a measure health for the UK jobs market that can strengthen the Pound if it posts a lower number than the forecast 6.2K. Later in the afternoon the pair will be heavily influenced by the Fed Meeting.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: FED HIKES AND DOLLAR STRENGTHENS. BUT FOR HOW LONG?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Ahead of the Fed release the pair moved almost completely sideways, as most traders were waiting for the announcement. The Fed decided towards a raise to <0.75% and also mentioned that 3 more hikes should be expected during 2017; the US Dollar responded by strengthening and the pair slipped lower, touching support.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0650 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average continued to reject rising price and now the pair is testing the support at 1.0570. If this level can be broken, we expect to see a drop into 1.0525 and even lower, towards 1.0460. The US Dollar is surrounded by a positive sentiment and will likely continue to strengthen during the days to come but at the moment, the pair’s direction is still not clear so we cannot exclude a sudden move up.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:30 pm GMT we take a look at U.S. inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. Under normal circumstances, a higher change than the forecast 0.2% strengthens the US Dollar but given yesterday’s events, we may get a mixed reaction from this release.

GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count Change showed that less people applied for unemployment related benefits last month and this strengthened the Pound early during yesterday’s session. However, the Fed rate hike nullified all the gains and took the pair below the 50 period EMA.

Technical Outlook

The latest impulse is bearish and the US Dollar is gaining against most of its counterparts, so we anticipate a touch of 1.2550 in the short term and possibly a move below 1.2480 during the days to come. However, if the pair will reverse and move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, this scenario will be invalidated and 1.2675 will become the first bullish target.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the day for the Pound is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT in the form of the British Retail Sales. This type of sales represents a major part of the entire consumer spending and a higher number shows increased economic activity; the forecast is a change of 0.2% and usually numbers above it strengthen the currency.

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current 0.25%) and will release a Monetary Policy Summary that contains details about the reasons that influenced the rate decision. More importantly, the Summary may contain hints about future rate changes and if that’s the case, we expect the Pound to react strongly.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN TOTAL CONTROL. SMALL PULLBACKS ANTICIPATED

EUR/USD

Forex News: U.S inflation numbers that came out yesterday matched analysts’ expectations (0.2% change) so the release didn’t have a strong impact but the pair continued to descend yesterday, mostly due to the Fed hike.

Technical Outlook

The pair broke 1.0460, which was the lowest point reached since 2015 so now we could say we are in uncharted waters because the current level was last seen in 2003. The bears are in clear control and we expect further downside movement in the medium term but the oscillators have reached oversold and price travelled a long distance without a retracement. The level at 1.0460 may act as resistance for such a pullback but overall we expect price to move lower.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Final CPI is released, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. The indicator acts as a measure of inflation but the Final version is the least important; nonetheless, higher numbers than the forecast 0.6% can strengthen the Euro but to a limited extent considering the current situation.

On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Building Permits, released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show 1.24M, slightly lower than the previous 1.26M. The indicator is a measure of activity in the housing sector and higher numbers can strengthen the currency but the impact is usually mild.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged and the British Retail Sales matched the forecast so the Pound wasn’t much affected. The US Dollar continued to strengthen and the day ended significantly lower.

Technical Outlook

The huge drop seen over the last couple of days is likely to continue until 1.2385 support is touched but we may see a retracement higher soon, due to the overextended condition of price. The oscillators have entered oversold and warn of such a possible pullback but after this move is completed, we expect the pair to continue lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today but the pair will be directly affected by the U.S. Building Permits.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: BUYERS FIGHT BACK, US DOLLAR STILL HYPED BY FED BOOST

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair retraced higher Friday but movement was slower compared to the previous days. The bears are in control but an extended move up is not out of the question.

Technical Outlook

After hitting the low at 1.0366 price moved higher to test the recently broken support at 1.0460 but for now it looks like the level is holding and may turn into resistance. If this is the case, we expect to see another drop closer to 1.0366 but a move above 1.0460 will open the door for a touch of 1.0525. However, as long as the pair is trading below 1.0525 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, a survey of about 7,000 businesses that tries to gauge the optimism of respondents regarding a 6 month outlook on economic conditions. The time of the release is 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is 110.7, slightly higher than the previous 110.4.

GBP/USD

Friday was a better day for the Pound, which strengthened against the greenback after an almost perfect bounce at support. The economic calendar was light so the bounce can be mostly attributed to the technical side.

Technical Outlook

It looks like the pair has found good support at 1.2385 as seen from Friday’s price action, so we can expect this level to be of importance for future direction. Currently the pair is testing 1.2480 zone but rejection is present as shown by the long wick of the penultimate four-hour candle; also, the US Dollar is still strengthening so it’s very likely to see a resumption of the bearish movement from this level. As an alternate scenario, a clear break of 1.2480 will probably take price closer to the 50 EMA and the level at 1.2550.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is empty today for the Pound, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND STAGGERS, RANGE-BOUND TRADING AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bulls didn’t manage to take the pair above resistance yesterday, although the German IFO Business Climate posted a higher reading than analysts had anticipated. The release created just a brief moment of upside movement and soon after, price took a downwards direction.

Technical Outlook

So far the resistance at 1.0460 is holding and seems to reject price lower so we anticipate another encounter with the low at 1.0366. However, it’s possible to see the start of a ranging period, with price moving above and below 1.0460 without a clear direction. The week lacks major economic releases and Christmas is approaching so we may enter a period of irregular volatility but as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Producer Price Index is scheduled for release today at 7:00 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.1% from the previous 0.7%. The indicator usually has a low impact but higher numbers are beneficial for the currency and this is the only notable indicator of the day.

GBP/USD

The bears controlled most of yesterday’s trading session after a bounce at resistance. The move was mostly technical because the economic calendar lacked any major releases.

Technical Outlook

The resistance zone around 1.2500 capped upside movement yesterday and now it appears like 1.2385 is broken. This support is important for short term price action, so of the bears can keep the pair below it, we expect to see a move into 1.2325 (1.2300), possibly during today’s session. A quick move above the current level will make the next direction uncertain and will probably trigger ranging movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has another lacklustre day from a fundamental standpoint as no major releases are scheduled. This will likely contribute to slow, ranging movement.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: OVEREXTENDED MOVES CALL FOR BULLISH PULLBACKS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Producer Price Index released yesterday showed a slightly better than anticipated value but this didn’t do much for an already weak Euro. The pair continued its descent and pierced the low at 1.0366.

Technical Outlook

The main direction is south but the pair is likely to retrace higher before 1.0366 support can be broken decisively. Yesterday price breached the mentioned support but this is by no means a true break yet and it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index as well as the Stochastic are approaching oversold, thus increasing the chances of a pullback north. Price action may be irregular today and the rest of the week, due to the approaching of Christmas and the lack of major economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator of the day is released at 3:00 pm GMT: the U.S. Existing Home Sales. The indicator shows the annualized number of previously owned houses (not new construction) that were sold during the previous month and a higher reading usually shows increased economic activity and a healthy house market. The forecast is 5.52M while the previous value was 5.60M.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar continued its assault on the Pound yesterday and the pair dropped to touch the next support. The economic calendar was light so the fundamental side didn’t have a major impact.

Technical Outlook

The support around 1.2325 – 1.2300 is strong and although the main direction is down, we may see a bullish pullback from this area. The situation is similar to the EUR/USD, with both oscillators approaching oversold and price near support, so it’s possible for the pair to continue to move south but the extent should be limited before a retracement occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any notable news releases so the technical side will be the main market mover.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT HOLDS, DOWNTREND STILL INTACT AHEAD OF U.S. GDP

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Existing Home Sales posted yesterday a higher number than analysts’ expectations but the release didn’t have the strength to drive the pair lower and instead a bullish retracement occurred.

Technical Outlook

The retracement was expected and so far it’s not a reason of concern for the downtrend but it’s very likely to see an encounter with 1.0460 which may turn into resistance. If the level is breached, the pair will touch the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and we expect it to reverse lower unless the US Dollar will be weakened by the economic data released throughout the day. To the downside 1.0366 zone remains strong support, while to the upside we don’t expect the pair to surpass 1.0525.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is probably the busiest day of the week, with two important releases, both scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT: the CORE Durable Goods Orders and the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (Final version). The first is a leading indicator of production that shows changes in orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years, excluding transportation items (expected change 0.2%, previous 0.8%). The GDP is the main gauge of economic performance but the Final version is the least important, so we don’t expect huge volatility at the release; nonetheless, higher values for these indicators usually bring US Dollar strength.

GBP/USD

Yesterday after another encounter with support, the pair jumped higher to test the resistance at 1.2385, showing choppy price action and no clear direction.

Technical Outlook

During the recent period the pair has touched 1.2325 support twice and both times it moved higher, reaching resistance. Until a clear break happens, the pair is likely to stay in range mode, bouncing between support and resistance. The downtrend is still present and the US Dollar is still strong but this doesn’t exclude a move above 1.2385 before bearish action can resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is light so the U.S. releases will be the main price mover, as well as the technical aspect.