FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES, SUPPORT IN THE WAY
EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday’s session belonged almost exclusively to the bears and after finding resistance near 1.0680, the pair dropped to touch the support at 1.0610. The 50 EMA was also broken decisively so we might be looking at a short term downtrend.
Technical Outlook
It looks like the climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seen last week did not generate additional buying pressure and now that the pair has returned below it, the bears might be taking over the pair’s movement. Last week ended right on 1.0610 level but this doesn’t mean that support is holding and today we will get a real sense of direction: if price moves below support, we will probably see another move into 1.0525 in the near future, otherwise we will probably have a ranging day, with price confined between 1.0610 and 1.0650.
Fundamental Outlook
The United States celebrates Presidents’ Day and banks will be closed so we will probably see low volatility during the New York session. Also, no economic indicators will be released on either side of the Atlantic so the entire session may be ranging.
GBP/USD
The British Retail Sales showed a disappointing change of -0.3% (forecast 1.0%) and this was one of the main reasons why the pair had a bearish session Friday, moving below 1.2420.
Technical Outlook
Although the latest impulse is bearish, the pair is ranging from a longer term perspective and 1.2420 support is not decisively broken so a move up cannot be excluded. However, we slightly favour the short side for today, mostly because the effect of the disappointing Retail Sales figure will probably extend to the early stages of this week. The first notable support is located at 1.2350, while resistance sits around 1.2480.
Fundamental Outlook
Similar to the other two currencies, today the Pound will not be affected by economic releases, so the main focus will be on the technical side.