AceTraderFx Feb 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Trading Discussion Currencies
118

[B] Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Jan 2016[/B] [I]03:10GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ...... Euro pares yesterday's intra-day relatively strong gain in New York session after downbeat U.S. durable goods order (December reading fell by the most since August 2014) and then lower-than-expected pending home sales data sent the single currency to a 2-week high of 1.0968.

However, lack of follow-through buying resulted in euro’s erasing some of Thursday’s gain.

Despite being the last trading day of the month, there is a slew of important EZ data due out in European session with France’s GDP at 06:30GMT, then German retail sales n later important EZ Jan CPI at 10:00GMT.
If the data are supportive of the euro, then expect market to test Jan’s high at 1.0985, however, if the data turn out to be weaker than forecast, then euro be be sold on long liquidation.

In the meantime, offers are tipped at 1.0960/70 and more above with stops above 1.0985, more stops (fairly large) are touted above 1.1000.
Initial bids are noted at 1.0930-20 and more below with stops below 1.0900.

119

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Feb 2016[/B] [I]03:22GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... Although the single currency remained under pressure in early trade in New Zealand and weakened to 1.0815 ahead of Asian open, renewed buying interest abv Fri's low at 1.0810 lifted the pair n price pared its losses n rebounded to 1.0846 in Asian morning due partly to dlr's broad-based weakness.

Germany and EZ will release their manufacturing PMIs at 08:55 and 09:00 respectively.
Street forecasts are for both the figures to remain unchanged at 52.1 and 52.3 resp.

Offers are now seen at 1.0850/60 and more above at 1.0870/80 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.0790/00, suggesting selling on pullback still remains the favored strategy.

120

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2016[/B] [I]03:41GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ...... The single currency traded with a firm bias in Asia and Europe yesterday n rose to session high at 1.0913 in New York morning, helped by dlr's weakness due to release of poor U.S. eco. data.

Despite a brief retreat to 1.0875 at New York midday, euro rebounded to 1.0906 in New York afternoon and continues to trade with a firm bias in Asian morning due to cross-buying in eur/gbp.

Pay attention to the release of Germany unemployment change and rate at 08:55GMT. Street forecast for unemployment change is -7K vs previous reading of -14K, whilst unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.3%.

Bids are now raised to 1.0870/80 and more below at 1.0840/50 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.0940/50, suggesting choppy trading with upside bias would be seen.

121

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2016[/B] [I]09:10GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ...... Although euro rose above yesterday's high of 1.0913 (New York) to 1.0919 in Asia, price retreated on renewed cross-selling in euro vs yen and then dipped to 1.0896.

Later, buying interest emerged around 1.0900 level and lifted price 1-tick above following the release of mixed Germany’s unemployment reports.

On Tuesday, Germany’s Federal Statistics Office said the unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 6.2% in January from 6.3% a month earlier. Market had expected the jobless rate to hold steady at 6.3% last month.
Meanwhile, data showed that the number of unemployed people decreased by a seasonally adjusted 20,000 last month, better than expectations for a drop of 7,000.
Jobless claims fell by 16,000 in December, whose figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 14,000.

At present, bids are noted at 1.0900-1.0890 and more around 1.0870 with stops below 1.0850.
On the upside, offers are reported at 1.0930-40 and then 1.0960-70 with stops above there.

122

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Feb 2016[/B] [I]02:48GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- .... The single currency traded with a firm bias in Asia yesterday and gained in Europe, hitting session high at 1.0940 in New York morning, later, euro pared its gains and retreated sharply to 1.0892.

However, renewed buying there checked losses and price rebounded to 1.0936 in Asian morning today, helped by cross-buying in eur/gbp.

EU will release a slew of services PMIs but pay particular attention to Germany’s n EZ’s. Street forecasts are for them to remain unchanged at 55.4 and 53.6 respectively.

Bids are now seen at 1.0900/10 and more below at 1.0880/90 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.0960/70, suggesting choppy trading with mild upside bias would be seen.

123

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Feb 2016[/B] [I]01:23GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... The single currency was also supported yesterday from an increase in EU retail sales. Euro zone retail trade increased in December mostly thanks to Christmas shopping of food, drinks and tobacco, the European Union statistics office Eurostat estimated on Wednesday.

Sales in the 19 countries sharing the euro grew on average 0.3% in December on a monthly basis, as expected by economists polled by Reuters.
Retail trade increased 1.4% year-on-year, slightly less than the forecast 1.5%.

Eurostat revised upwards both monthly and yearly estimates for the month of November. Month-on-month euro zone sales have been flat in November, contrary to previous estimates of a 0.3% drop. Year-on-year sales recorded in November a 1.6% rise, more than the previously estimated 1.4%.

The greenback tumbled against majority of its peers yesterday as New York Fed President William warned of tightening financial conditions.
Reuters reported, in an interview with MNI, Williams said financial conditions have tightened considerably in the weeks since the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates and monetary policy makers will have to take that into consideration should that phenomenon persist.

124

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2016 [/B] [I]02:18GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... Euro tumbled to session lows of 1.1128 after dovish comments by ECB's Draghi. Reuters report on ECB President Mario Draghi backing a plan to revive Europe's weakened market for asset-backed securities (ABS), saying on Monday that it was well designed to strengthen the sector while guaranteeing financial stability.

ABS are securities based on pooled loans such as mortgages. The continent’s ABS market has shrunk to half its size since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009 which was triggered by a collapse of this sector in the United States.

The European Commission proposed in September a plan to relaunch ABS in Europe by lowering capital requirements for a new category of “simple, transparent and standardised” (STS) debt.
The EU executive Draghi proposals represent a very strong package that achieved a balance between the need to revive the European securitisation market and the need to preserve the prudential regulatory framework.
He told the economic and monetary affairs committee of the European Parliament in Brussels that the ECB is preparing a formal opinion on the Commission’s proposals.
The 28 EU states have approved the legislative package a few weeks after its publication, in an unusual example of quick EU legislative process.

The European Parliament needs to vote on the package before it can be turned into law. The ECB has bought 17.8 billion euros of ABS as part of a debt-buying programme started in November 2014 to help banks diversify funding sources and revamp the market for credit in Europe.

125

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Feb 2016 05:08 GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Despite staging a modest rebound from Friday's 2-week low of 1.1067 to 1.1138 in New York session, intra-day selloff in the pound dragged euro lower, price retreated to 1.1104 in Asian morning before edging higher.

Order book is pretty thin on this Asian morning with some bids noted at 1.1100-1.1090 n more below with stops touted below 1.1060. Offers are tipped at 1.1130/40 with some stops above there, however, more selling interest is reported at 1.1150/60.

Expect range trading above 1.1067 to continue as market awaits release of a slew of mfg & services PMIs to come with France’s PMIs at 08:00GMT, Germany’s at 08:30GMT, Italy’s & EU’s at 09:00GMT. Germany’s Bundesbank will also release its month report at 11:00GMT.

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126

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
24 Feb 2016 02:30GMT

EUR/USD - .....Earlier Reuters reported that the International Monetary Fund is making a big demand on Greece in the pension reform which required to complete its first bailout review.

Negotiations between the heads of the EU/IMF mission reviewing progress on Greece’s pensions overhaul, fiscal targets and the handling of bad loans, took a break earlier this month.
It is unclear when the lenders will return to Athens and whether the latest impasse can be broken.

Greece finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos said that the IMF is pushing them far too much. It’s not socially sensitive, and is asking them to do more than they had agreed in the summer.
Under a third bailout of up to 86 billion euros ($95 billion) signed last summer, Greece was asked to cut pension spending by 1 percent of gross domestic product this year. Athens has refused to cut pensions and says it will increase social security contributions instead.

But IMF’s director for Europe, Poul Thomsen, has said that Greece will need to implement extra measures worth about 9 billion euros to meet its fiscal targets by 2018 and that the Fund could not see how Athens could do so without major savings on pensions.

Without the lenders’ acknowledgement of the reforms, the government cannot start relief talks it needs to show austerity-weary Greeks their sacrifices are paying off.

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127

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Mar 2016 03:37GMT

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - .... Euro pares yesterday's loss in Asia after falling sharply in European morning following release of weak EZ inflation data, price penetrated Fri's 1.0912 low to a fresh 3-week bottom of 1.0859 in New York morning, however, downbeat U.S. data triggered minor short-covering rebound to 1.0892.

Looks like sideways trading above said yesterday’s low would continue until European open.
Today is ‘PMI’ day with Italy releasing manufacturing PMI, then France, Germany n EZ.

Offers are tipped at 1.0990/00 with stops touted above 1.0920.
Initial bids are noted at 1.0865-65 with stops below 1.0840.

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128

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Mar 2016 03:04GMT

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ...... Euro trades narrowly with a soft bias in subdued Asian morning after Fri's intra-day rally from post-NFP New York morning at 1.0904 to as high as 1.1044.

Price has edged lower in NZ and Australia on Monday due to lack of follow-through buying, suggesting sideways trading below said Friday’s 1.1044 temp. top would continue.
Some bids are noted at 1.0970-60 with stops touted below 1.0950, however, more stops are reported below 1.0900.
On the upside, some offers are tipped at 1.1000/10 and more above with stops above 1.1045.

Pay attention to release of a slew of European data with Germany kicking off with Jan factory orders at 07:00GMT, then Italy’s PPI and later EU Sentix Mar investor confidence index.

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129

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Mar 2016 09:43GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Although the single currency opened slightly lower in NZ today and traded in sideways fashion throughout Asia, price met renewed selling at 1.0994 ahead of European open and dropped sharply to 1.0944 in early European morning on cross-selling in EUR especially vs YEN.

German factory orders fell less-than-expected last month, official data showed on Monday.
German factory orders fell to a seasonally adjusted -0.1%, from -0.2% in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from -0.7%.

Bids are now lowered to 1.0940/50 and more below at 1.0920/30 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.1010/20, suggesting further choppy trading wud be seen.

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130

ECB is expected to cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Mar 2016 01:40GMT

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... Euro pares yesterday's rally from 1.0946 to 1.1035 in Asia SS market remains nervous ahead of today's ECB meeting. ECB is set to unveil its second stimulus ****tail in three months on Thursday, spurred by fears that low energy costs are feeding into wages and prices, potentially perpetuating ultra-low inflation.

The euro zone’s central bank is widely expected to cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory and adjust its 1.5 trillion euro asset-buying scheme, hoping to boost prices after inflation dipped back into negative territory last month.

The ECB has little to show for the 700 billion euros it has spent buying government bonds and other assets in the past year, as tumbling raw materials prices blunt the impact of its quantitative easing. That raises the risk that people will lose faith in the bank’s commitment to its mandate, dragging down long-term price expectations.
Inflation has been below the ECB’s nearly 2 percent target for three years and is likely to remain so for many more.

Draghi has already said that acting too soon is better than acting too late, and that the rate meeting needs to recognise that the outlook for growth and inflation have deteriorated. But with policy already deep in unconventional territory, the ECB has few big guns left and most remaining options risk either negative side effects or potential legal challenges, suggesting the Governing Council will opt for a package of modest measures.

Analysts polled expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate to -0.4 percent from -0.3 percent, charging banks more for keeping their cash with the bank overnight. They also see a 60 percent chance the ECB will raise its monthly asset purchases, probably by 10 billion euros to 70 billion euros a month.
It could also firm up its forward guidance, drop a self-imposed limit not to buy assets yielding less than its deposit rate and launch a new targeted longer-term refinancing operation, possibly at a negative rate, to help boost lending, growth and eventually inflation.

But more radical ideas, like an even deeper rate cut, a multi-tier deposit rate, or buying non-performing bank loans, are unlikely to gain traction within the diverse 25-member Governing Council that has shunned radical steps in several earlier tweaks of its asset-buying programme.

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131

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
11 Mar 2016 03:02GMT

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... Euro trades relatively with a firm undertone after yesterday's 'spectacular' rally from 1.0821 (interbank low) to as high as 1.1218. Although the single currency tanked from 1.0990 top a fresh 1-month trough of 1.0821 after ECB cut interest rate n expanded its bond purchase programme as expected, short-covering quickly lifted the pair to 1.1116 and intra-day rally continued after ECB's Draghi said rate cuts are done for now at the Q&A press conference, price later climbed to as high as 1.1218 after tripping a series of stops on the way up.

Despite intra-day firmness, yesterday’s 1.1218 high is likely to hold until European open as Asia traders are reluctant to take the pair higher as profit-taking offers by U.S. & European traders should prevent strong gain.
Offers are tipped at 1.1210/20 with some stops above there, some bids are noted at 1.1160-50 with some stops touted below there.

Germany will release final inflation data at 07:00GMT followed by Italy’s industrial production at 09:00GMT.

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132

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
14 Mar 2016 04:03GMT

[B]EUR/USD -[/B] ..... Euro opened lower on news of defeats in election results by the ruling CDU party on Sunday. Reuters reported Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives lost in two out of three state elections on Sunday as Germans punished her accommodative refugee policy with a big vote for the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), exit polls showed.

The pair fell to 1.1135 before renewed buying emerged n later lifted price to 1.1176 ahead of Asian open, however, euro moved sideways in Asian trading as traders await reaction from European players when they come in, therefore, sideways swings are expected to continue.
Offers are tipped at 1.1180/90 with stops above 1.1200, more stops are reported above last week’s high at 1.1218.
Initial bids are noted at 1.1235-25 with some stops below 1.1220, more stops are touted below Friday’s 1.1080 low.

The only economic data due out today is EZ industrial production, January’s M/M is expected to come in at -0.1% vs previous reading of -1.3%.

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133

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
18 Mar 2016 08:40GMT

EUR/USD - ....... Although the single currency briefly edged up to 1.1337 in Asian morning, price dropped sharply to 1.1275 at European open as ECB's Praet hinted that ECB cud cut its rates further and continues to remain under pressure.

Germany’s producer price index fell more-than-expected last month.
In a report, Destatis said that German Producer Price Inflation fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.5%, from -0.7% in the preceding month.

Offers are now seen at 1.1290/00 and more above at 1.1310/20 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.1220/30, suggesting selling on pullback is favored.

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134

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
21 Mar 2016 09:13GMT

EUR/USD - … Despite opening slightly lower in New Zealand, the single currency rebounded to 1.1285 in Asian morning on cross-buying in eur/gbp.
However, renewed selling there pressured the pair lower and price dropped sharply to session low at 1.1236 in early European morning and continues to remain under pressure.

Bids are now lowered to 1.1220/30 and more below at 1.1200/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.1270/80, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.

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135

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/EUR)
24 Mar 2016 04:07GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1170.. Euro is nursing loss in Asian morning after falling for 4 consecutive days to 1.1159 in New York on Wednesday in the aftermath of Tuesday's bombing attacks in Brussels.

The lack of a rebound suggests intra-day downside bias remains as offers are tipped at 1.1190/00 and more above with stops reported above 1.1240.
Some bids are noted at 1.1160 with stops touted below 1.1150.

Ahead of the long Easter holiday in Europe, there is a slew of economic data due out in European morning with Germany’s April Gfk consumer sentiment, France’s business climate, Italy’s industrial orders and retail sales .

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136

2016 Investment. Long EUR.USD @1.116
Draghi is stimulating European Corporate Bonds. There will be a net positive Foreign capital inflow into European Union stimulating the strength of EUR.USD.
Target: 1.30 by end of 2017.
Will add more long once 1.17 becomes support at end of 2016 and deflation fighting policies stay intact.

Position will close upon EU Central Banks removing deflation fighting policies and ending QE.

See ya’ll at end of 2017.

137

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Mar 2016 02:23GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Euro edges lower in Asian morning after yesterday's intra-day rally following release of soft U.S. inflation data, price jumped above 1.1176 res immediately after the data, tripping stops above there and euro then climbed to 1.1220 before paring intra-day gain on upbeat U.S. pending home sales report.

Current softness suggests consolidation below said Monday’s 1.1220 top would be seen, however, as yesterday’s rally signals recent decline has made a temporary low last week at 1.1144 (Thursday), buying interest near 1.1176 is expected to contain weakness and bring another rebound later today.

Offers are tipped at 1.1210/20 with stops above there, more selling interest is reported at 1.1240/50.
Bids are noted at 1.1180-70 and more below with stops touted below 1.1140.

The only economic data coming from Europe today is Italy’s business and consumer confidence indices, so all eyes are on U.S. data n Fed Chair Yellen’s speech later today.

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