[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD
25 May 2016[/B] [I]02:108[/I]
EUR/USD - ..... The euro zone gave Greece its firmest offer yet of debt relief in what finance ministers called a breakthrough deal that won a commitment from the IMF finally to return to taking part in the bailout for Athens.
After talks that lasted into the small hours of Wednesday, the Eurogroup ministers gave a nod to releasing 10.3 billion euros in new funds for Greece in recognition of painful fiscal reforms pushed through by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s leftist-led coalition, subject to some final technical tweaks.
But a bigger step forward was a deal by which the euro zone agreed to offer Athens debt relief in 2018 if that is necessary to meet agreed criteria on its payments burden. That was enough to secure an agreement from the International Monetary Fund to again join the euro zone in funding the bailout of Greece.
Acknowledging the “political capital” European ministers invested to reach the deal – a nod to strong German objections to debt relief – Dijsselbloem called it a “new phase” in a six-year drama to stabilise Greece’s finances that has taken the 16-year-old euro zone to the brink of break-up.
Mutual trust was returning to the talks, he said, nearly a year after Tsipras’s rejection of austerity measures pushed Athens close to be pushed out of the euro.
The IMF has long insisted on the European governments taking a hit to relieve Athens of some of its debt in order to make its public finances more sustainable. The refusal of Germany and others to do that had led to months of wrangling with the IMF in which Athens had been something of a spectator in negotiations.
While the Europeans did not offer immediate debt relief, or make an unconditional promise of reducing the payments Greece must make to them, they did spell out criteria for it.
Athens’ gross financing needs show be kept below 15 percent of GDP in the medium term and below 20 percent beyond that.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 May 2016[/B] [I]03:12GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1101.. Euro languishes near a 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1098 in Asia on Monday as intra-day rally in DLR/YEN has led to renewed broad-based usd's strength.
Having said that, Asian traders are not too eager to knock the pair lower as price has already fall fairly sharply in New York session on Friday, so one can expect a minor recovery to occur ahead of European open ahead of release of a slew of economic data from euro zone countries.
Offers are tipped at 1.1220/30 and more above with stops above 1.1150, some bias are noted at 1.1090-00 and more below (profit taking).
As both U.K. & U.S. markets are closed for holiday today, trading activity is expected to die down near European midday.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Jun 2016[/B] [I] 02:52GMT[/I]
[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... The single currency fell below Mon's low at 1.1232 to 1.1208 in Europe yesterday as German 10-Year Bunds slipped into negative territory for the first time on record due to fears ahead of EU referendum.
Later, price dropped further to 1.1189 in New York morning after meeting renewed selling at 1.1241 before staging a bounce to 1.1220 on short-covering before moving sideways in New York afternoon.
Today, apart from the release of France’s CPI at 06:45GMT, investors should pay attention to the speeches from Bundesbank’s Weidmann and ECB’s Constancio at 14:00GMT and 14:30GMT respectively.
At the moment, offers are reported at 1.1230-40 and more at 1.1250-60 with stops above there, whilst initial bids are noted at 1.1190-80 and then 1.1170-60 with stops below 1.1150.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Jun 2016[/B] [I]03:50GMT[/I]
[B]EUR/USD [/B]- ..... The single currency ratcheted higher after holding above Tuesday's low at 1.1189 and later rallied to 1.1298 in o/n New York following the unchanged Fed's rate decision n the release of FOMC statement. Later, price retreated to 1.1248 on profit-taking before edging higher again in Asian morning on Thursday.
Today will see the release of euro zone’s CPI for May at 09:00GMT. Market expects the inflation in euro zone to decrease to a monthly rate of 0.3% in May from 0.4% in preceding month.
Later, ECB’s Mersch will give speech at 15:15GMT.
At present, bids are noted at 1.1250-40 and then 1.1230-20 with stops below there, whilst offers from various accounts are tipped at 1.1280-90 and more at 1.1300-10 with stops above 1.1330.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Jul 2016[/B] [I]09:05GMT[/I]
Euro hits intra-day low after downbeat Eurozone data, Reuters reported sentiment in the euro zone fell to an 18-month low in July, a survey showed on Monday, as investors and analysts fear a major economic fallout from Britain’s vote last month to leave the European Union.
The Frankfurt-based Sentix research group’s index fell to 1.7 from 9.9 in June. Analysts polled by Reuters has expected a reading of 5.0.
Statement from Sentix said that the Brexit vote at the end of June in the United Kingdom is having a very different impact globally in terms of economic expectations, investors are clearly differentiating and in addition to Switzerland, they see the euro zone as mostly affected. Therefore the euro zone economy is dangerously close to stagnation.
Reflecting those concerns, the sub-index measuring expectations fell to -2.0 from 10 in June, reaching its lowest level since November 2014. A sub-index measuring the euro zone’s current condition fell to 5.5 from 9.8.
Sentix added that the European Central Bank (ECB) faces huge pressure from markets to act. A sub index measuring monetary policy expectations rose to 30.5 from 15.
The European Central Bank surprised many in March with interest rate cuts, additional monthly bond purchases and more cheap loans for banks designed as an incentive for them to lend more but left policy unchanged in April.
An index tracking Germany showed sentiment in Europe’s largest economy fell to 18.4 from 20.7. Investors were sceptical about the outlook for the German economy and the index measuring expectations fell to 2.7 from 7.9.
This survey of 1,056 investors was conducted end of last week, between June 30 and July 2.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Jul 2016[/B] [I]03:00GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - ..... Although one will be forgiven to expect very narrow move to take place in Asian morning following euro's trendless trading in New York afternoon, intra-day rally in cable forced traders to buy the euro in sympathy (rally in eur/yen also triggered euro buying too), price ratcheted higher from 1.1102 to 1.1140.
Despite yesterday’s intra-day retreat from 1.1165 to 1.1098 in New York morning following upbeat U.S. data, intra-day sterling-led rebound suggests consolidation with upside bias would be seen until European open. Having said that, traders are also mindful of 1.1186/90 being the res or top of recent trading range, so a break of this res is unlikely in the absence of supporting fundamental factors.
Bids are noted at 1.1110-00 and more below with stops below 1.1080, more stops are touted below 1.1040.
Offers are tipped at 1.1140/50 n at 1.1160/65 and more above with fairly large stops rumoured above 1.1200.
Italy will release trade data at 08:30GMT n EZ will release by the same together with inflation data afterwards.
Pay attention to release of a slew of U.S. eco. data later today with key U.S. CPI, retail sales, New York Fed mfg index at 12:30GMT, then we have industrial and manufacturer output, capacity utilization, bus. inventories, University of Michigan consumer confidence.
Last but not least, FOMC members Williams and Bullard will be speaking in New York afternoon.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Aug 2016[/B] [I]03:08GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1156... Despite opening slightly higher in New Zealand, the single currency met renewed selling at 1.1173 and resumed its fall from Friay's high at 1.1222 towards 1.1154 at Asian open and continues to remain under pressure in Asian morning, due partly to cross-selling of euro vs sterling.
Trading is expected to be relatively thin today as Italy and France will remain closed for market holiday and offers are now seen at 1.1170/80 and more above at 1.1190/00 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.1100/10, suggesting choppy trading with downside bias would be seen.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Aug 2016[/B] [I]01:42GMT[/I]
EUR/USD...... The single currency rallied from yesterday's Asian low at 1.1271 to 1.1331 in New York morning on dlr's broad-based retreat. Renewed buying at 1.1311 in New York lifted the pair again n euro gained to 1.1334 at Asian open today and continues to trade with a firm bias.
There is a slew of data from eurozone today, including mfg. and serv. PMIs from France, Germany and EZ.
These figures would give a guage on the economy within the region after the Brexit vote n the impact it has had.
Offers are now raised to 1.1340/50 and more above at 1.1360/70 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.1270/80, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Sep 2016 [/B] [I]02:05GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - ..... Although the single staged an impressive rally in European session yesterday n later hit at high of 1.1257 in New York morning on active short-covering in the euro following usd's broad-based weakness in post-FOMC session on Wed, selling interest emerged n price later retreated to 1.1200 ahead of New York close, suggesting the 1st leg of correction from Wed's 5-week bottom at 1.1121 has ended there and consolidation is expected to continue in Asia and European morning.
Offers are tipped at 1.1230/40 and more at 1.1255/60 with stops reported above previous res at 1.1284/85.
Initial bids are noted at 1.1200 with stops below 1.1180, however, expect buying interest to emerge near 1.1160/65.
Pay attention to a slew of euro zone data in European morning.
Today is PMI day with France kicking off with France with GDP and Markit Mfg and Services PMIs, then the sames PMIs from Germany followed by the release of same PMIs from the EU.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Nov 2016[/B] [I]07:08GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.0913.. Euro gained respite in fairly quiet/subdued Asian session as Asian traders are pretty tired after this week's wild swings.
Although price initially dipped to 1.0876 after Asian open, buying interest emerged above yesterday’s 1.0865 low and lifted price from 1.0876 to 1.0923, suggesting sideways move is likely to continue in Europe.
Euro may well edge higher on short covering as market will quieten down after European afternoon as financial markets in U.S. and Canada are closed for holiday today. Germany will shortly release October CPI data.
Bids are noted at 1.0875-65 n more below (there has been talk of option barrier at 1.0850) with stops reported below 1.0840.
Offers are tipped at 1.0940/50 with stops above 1.0960, more stops are touted above 1.1000, suggesting selling euro on intra-day recovery is still recommended.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Dec 2016[/B] [I]07:31GMT
[/I]
EUR/USD - … Euro pares intra-day gain at European open after price extended gain from yesterday’s 1.0432 low to 1.0480 in Asia.
Seller emerged quickly pushed price back down to 1.0465, suggesting consolidation with downside bias is in store.
Offers are tipped at 1.0480/90 with stops above last week’s high at 1.0499.
Bids are noted at 1.0455/50 and more below with stops reported below 1.0425.
Euro area economic calendar is very light with Italy’s December consumer n business confidence the only 2 data due out at 09:00GMT.
U.S. economic calendar is pretty light today with November pending home sales the only data for traders to chew on.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Jan 2017[/B] [I]01:30GMT[/I]
EUR/GBP - 0.8535.. A piece of Brexit news on U.K. Telegraph which came out in Australian morning worth noting. PM Theresa May will threaten to take Britain out of the single market unless the UK is given full control of its borders in a significant Brexit speech designed to counter claims she has no plan for leaving the EU.
The Prime Minister will outline her “vision for Britain outside of the EU” in a major speech later this month that will focus on the economy and immigration.
Both David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, and Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, are having “significant” input into the speech, sources said. However, Liam Fox, the Trade Secretary considered one of the “three Brexiteers” alongside Mr Davis and Mr Johnson, is understood to have been sidelined.
The speech will be seen as a retort to claims of “muddled thinking” in Mrs May’s Government by Sir Ivan Rogers, who on Tuesday resigned as Britain’s EU ambassador after a series of rows with Downing Street.
One source predicted that Mrs May will make the speech after a Supreme Court ruling which will decide whether she has to formally consult Parliament before triggering Article 50, which begins formal Brexit negotiations.
Downing Street wants to get back on the front foot in the wake of the shock resignation of Sir Ivan, who had been “cut adrift” by Mrs May and her allies because of his negative view of Brexit.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Feb 2017[/B] [I]02:05GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - ...... Euro is nursing losses after yesterday's resumption of recent decline to a 4-week trough of 1.0561 after Fed Yellen's hawkish testimony before the U.S. Congress.
Although short-term specs made another attempt to know the pair lower at Asian open, buying interest (probably profit taking bids) at 1.0565 contained weakness, suggesting euro would move sideways before prospect of further weakness later in the day, so selling the pair on recovery is the way to go.
Offers are tipped at 1.0580/90 with some stops above 1.0600, however, more selling interest is reported at 1.0625/35.
On the downside, initial bids are noted at 1.0565-60 with some stops below 1.05550.
Euro area economic calendar is very light with EU trade balance being the only data in European morning, so traders will pay more attention to U.S. inflation data and retails sales at 13:30GMT.
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Feb 2017 02:21GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0552.. Euro is currently trading almost exactly where its was 24 hours ago after Wednesday's 'roller-coaster' rise.
Although price met renewed broad-based bashing at 1.0557 in Asia and tumbled to a 6-week trough of 1.0494 after tripping stops below 1.0520 in hectic European trading.
Price later rallied to 1.0566 on short covering in New York morning, despite a brief retreat to 1.0531 after release of Fed minutes, euro later climbed to session highs of 1.0573 due to broad-based USD retreat.
Euro’s rally from 1.0494 to as high as 1.0573 has finally cut recent losing streak and subsequent retreat suggests consolidation is in store until European open.
Expect euro demand on dips as market is obviously short, so buying on dips is favoured where bids are noted at 1.0530-20 and more below with stops below 1.0490.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.0570/80 with stops touted above 1.0600.
U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light today with weekly jobless claims and month home price being the only data due out in New York morning.
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (retiring on Feb 28) will speak at 13:35GMT and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (voter) will later speak at 18:00GMT.
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Feb 2017 03:13GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Despite extending recent upmove to 1.0630 near New York midday, the single currency pared intra-day gain due to usd's rebound, price slipped to 1.0581, then marginally lower to 1.0569 in Asia after hitting some stops below 1.0580.
Looks like the correction from last Wednesday’s 6-week low at 1.0494 may well have ended yesterday and consolidation with downside bias is seen as market is looking forward to Trump’s ‘Big’ infrastructure (spending) speech which may speak another round Trump rally in the USD.
Offers are tipped at 1.0590/00 and more with stops above 1.0630 whilst some bids are noted at 1.0560-50 with stops below there, suggesting selling euro on recovery is favoured.
Euro area will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany’s retail sales, France’s PPI, Italy’s CPI n HICP during European morning.
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[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Mar 2017[/B] [I]03:15GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - The euro survived another day of selling on Thursday as despite ratcheting lower from 1.0546 in Europe to 1.0496 in New York afternoon, bids above last Wed's 6-week low lifted the pair and price staged a short-covering rebound at Asian open today, climbing back to 1.0523 ahead of Tokyo lunch session.
Looks like more choppy trading above 1.0494 would be seen in European morning, however, intra-day weakness in the antipodean currencies suggests selling the euro on recovery in anticipation of recent decline is favoured.
Offfers are noted at 1.0525/30 and more above with stops above 1.0550, more selling interest is tipped at 1.0560/70 with stops above 1.0575.
Initial bids are reported at 1.0500-1.0490 with stops below there.
Today is PMI day in the euro zone, Germany will release retail sales 1st, then Italy’s services PMI, the same from France, then Germany and the EU.
Italy will release GDP and then EU retail sales.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Mar 2017[/B] [I]02:00GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - ...... Euro remains under pressure in subdued Asian trading as traders are mostly on the sideline ahead of ECB rate decision later in the day.
Although price briefly dipped to session lows of 1.0535 after release of robust U.S. private jobs report, euro quickly staged a short-covering bounce to 1.0562 but the pair then ratcheted lower to 1.0536 in New York afternoon, suggesting intra-day downside bias remains.
Offers are tipped at 1.0560/70 and more above with stops above 1.0580, more stops are reported above 1.0600.
Initial bids are noted at 1.0535-25 and more at 1.0505-00 with fairly large stops below 1.0490, suggesting selling euro on recovery is the way to go.
No eco. data is due out today but German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble will meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in Berlin later today.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Mar 2017[/B] [I]03:10GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - ..... Euro remains on the back foot in subdued Asian trading after extending decline from Monday's fresh 1-month high of 1.0714 to 1.0645 ahead of Asian open.
Although some traders attributed to Monday’s intra-day decline to dovish comments by ECB officials Smets and de Galhau, euro actually was under broad-based selling in European morning and later weakened 1.0653 near New York close.
Looks like consolidation with downside bias is in store ahead of European open and pay attention to release of key Germany’s ZEW eco. sentiment index.
Offers are tipped at 1.0675/80 n more at 1.0695/000 with stops above 1.0715/20.
Some bids are noted at 1.0640-30 with stops below there.
Germany will release CPI, ZEW eco sentiment followed later by EU industrial production.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Mar 2017[/B] [I]03:00GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - ...... Although euro fell initially ahead of Asian open to 1.0720 after tripping light stops below o/n NY low of 1.0735, short covering quickly lifted the single currency and price quickly rallied on broad-based usd's weakness (except vs yen), the pair later climbed on intra-day high of 1.0770 before stabilising.
Euro’s rebound from 1.0720 strongly suggests correction from last week’s 1.0783 high has ended and trading the euro from long side is the way to go.
Bids are noted at 1.0750-40 and more below with stops below 1.0700.
Offers are tipped at 1.0770/80 with stops above there, more stops are touted above 1.0800.
Data to be released later:
Swiss trade balance, UK CPI, core CPI, RPI, PPI input, PPI output, PPI core output, PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends,
Canada retail sales, U.S. current account and redbook retail sales.
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Mar 2017[/B] [I]03:20GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - ..... Yesterday's range was 1.0776-1.0825, so euro has more or less erased Wednesday's gain to a fresh 5-week high of 1.0825 made in New York morning.
However, failure to take out February’s peak at 1.0829 led to broad-based long liquidation in the EURO esp vs USD, YEN and GBP.
Although intra-day weakness in Asia suggests range trading is in store, as long as 1.0780-70 sup area holds.
Euro’s recent upmove is set to continue later in the day especially if Trump health care gets voted down by the U.S. Congress later today.
Bids are noted at 1.0780-70 with stops reported below there.
Offers are tipped at 1.0810/20 with stops above 1.0830/35.
Pay attention to release of a slew of euro area eco. data starting with Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence, France’s business climate, EU eco. bulletin, ECB targeted LTRO n much later at 15:00GMT, EU consumer confidence. ECB board member Nouey will speak at 08:00GMT followed by ECB’s Lautenschlager at 15:00GMT.