EURUSD: Technical Analysis/forecasts

EUR/USD INTRADAY: CAPPED BY A NEGATIVE TREND LINE.

Pivot 1.069
Our Preference Short positions below 1.069 with targets @ 1.0625 & 1.06 in extension.
Alternate Scenario Above 1.069 look for further upside with 1.0725 & 1.077 as targets.
Comments The RSI lacks upward momentum.
S1 1.0625
S2 1.06
S3 1.056
R1 1.069
R2 1.0725
R3 1.077



EUR/USD INTRADAY: REBOUND.
Pivot 1.062
Our Preference Long positions above 1.062 with targets @ 1.077 & 1.082 in extension.
Alternate Scenario Below 1.062 look for further downside with 1.056 & 1.05 as targets.
Comments The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
S1 1.062
S2 1.056
S3 1.05
R1 1.077
R2 1.082
R3 1.086


EUR/USD INTRADAY: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS.
Pivot 1.067
Our Preference Long positions above 1.067 with targets @ 1.0775 & 1.081 in extension.
Alternate Scenario Below 1.067 look for further downside with 1.062 & 1.056 as targets.
Comments The RSI is mixed to bullish.
S1 1.067
S2 1.062
S3 1.056
R1 1.0775
R2 1.081
R3 1.083

Global stocks slightly higher
Global stocks were slightly higher Friday as major indexes looked set to close out a week of gains.

The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% in early trade.

Shares in Asia also edged up. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.3%, led by the resources sector, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average was up 0.1%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.4%.

Wall Street ended a touch lower Thursday as health-care and energy shares declined.

Still, markets have broadly rallied this week after recovering from a brief initial shock sparked by the Paris terror attacks last Friday as investors perceived the events as unlikely to have inflicted major economic damage.

Stocks gained after the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes released late Wednesday showed officials appeared on track to raise interest rates from ultralow levels in December, reducing some uncertainty hanging over markets.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on Thursday reiterated that financial-market volatility has calmed enough for him to feel comfortable with lifting rates soon, while Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer also pointed to a potential rate rise in the “relatively near future.”

Meanwhile, minutes from the European Central Bank’s October meeting released Thursday pointed to the possibility of more easing in December. Stimulus measures from central banks have boosted equity markets in recent years.

“Both the ECB and the Fed minutes effectively confirmed what we already know, but they left key questions open,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec. While investors are fairly certain the Fed will raise interest rates in December, how “gradual” further tightening will be remains unclear, he said.

Investors are expecting further stimulus from the ECB, but are uncertain what form that will take. ECB President Mario Draghi has left the door open to adjusting its bond-buying program and a further cut to its deposit rate, which is already in negative territory. A speech later Friday Mr. Draghi may offer further clues.

In currencies, the euro fell 0.4% against the dollar to $1.0675, while the dollar edged up against the yen to Yen122.9400.

In commodities, Brent crude oil was down 0.2% at $44.14 a barrel. Gold was up 0.2% at $1,079.80 a troy ounce.

ECB President Mario Draghi said Friday that not only has the ECB’s accommodative policy, including its bond-purchase program, been a success, but it is the main driver of the economic recovery today. He said the economic recovery is on firmer footing than it was around one year ago. “Our measures have therefore clearly worked — in fact, they are probably the dominant force spurring the recovery that we see today,” said the ECB chief. “They have been instrumental in arresting and reversing the deflationary pressures that hit the euro area a year ago.” Markets expect the Mario machine to be at it again soon, with more QE and a lower deposit rate.

Euro hit by Draghi’s Comment
Mario Draghi does it again. The ECB president used a key speech in Frankfurt to underline the case for more accommodative ECB policy. His comments suggested that he is pushing for an expansion of QE as well as a deposit rate cut, as he said that “the level of the deposit facility rate can also empower the transmission” of the ECB’s bond-buying program. This hit the euro, as his dovish comments have done in the past, with EUR/USD now trading at 1.0689, down 0.4%.


EUR/USD INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS.
Pivot 1.0665
Our Preference Short positions below 1.0665 with targets @ 1.056 & 1.05 in extension.
Alternate Scenario Above 1.0665 look for further upside with 1.071 & 1.0765 as targets.
Comments The RSI is capped by a declining trend line.
S1 1.056
S2 1.05
S3 1.0455
R1 1.0665
R2 1.071
R3 1.0765