Robot Success

Love the enthusiasm…however,

For every losing position there is a tripled position that counters it with a win.

Please explain how this system is different to every other martingale system out there?
I note on your MFXB link that you have massive exposure to the JPY - 46000 units(not sure what a unit is) but lets pretend that is 0.46 lots. Normally you trade 0.01 lots…do you see how this has become magnified…and it is growing exponentially…

Also just another point or two…you deposited $8650 and you have currently $8024 in your account. I guess our definitions of success differ. Balance is totally useless…all that matters is equity.

I think if you need to make money selling your product rather than just making the money you need FROM your product or strategy then it ain’t worth the price)

I guess we will have to agree to disagree. In a world where everyone expects everything for free , this is a common view…

I know how you feel when you have hit the holy grail and suddenly understand why every trader out there is wrong…it happens to me on a regular basis, followed in due course by some schooling from the market. You are going to get some experience soon but don’t worry it’s a good thing because it is far more valuable than book knowledge.

Thanks for the reply Kenny.

No difference really since it opens up a larger 2nd trade to counter the first. My point really wasn’t about the bot itself but rather the focus on the lot sizes and TP targets vs. the actual bot. I think that if you get a bot that is reliable and fires off often, if your TPs are set low in reference to your acct size and lot size then it will hit the TP often. Rinse and repeat often.

I have deposited $8650. Originally I only plopped in $1k to test the waters. Drawdown was minimal and I was averaging 50-60 trades a week with very small TPs ($1.25 per TP), using lot sizes that only used 2-4% of my account for each position. Again, not saying the bot I am using is a holy grail by any means. My focus has been on a lot of small profits using small lot sizes (relative to my acct size) rather than the glorious “I killed it today with one massive TP!”. To keep my risk ratio the same, I adjust my TPs and my lot sizes as my account grows. So an account with $2k in it uses .01 and .03 lot sizes and a TP of $1.25 for each. Once it gets to $4k, the lot sizes move to .02 and .06 with a TP of $2.50. Lot size, TP target, and acct balance has doubled…so it takes roughly the same amount of effort to hit the TP at that level as it did when the acct was at the $2k settings. One thing I have noted is pretty much once the account reaches the next level and the TP targets and lot sizes are moved up, drawdown usually gets larger (as you can see on the myfxbook chart).

So, again. Not saying the bot/system is the holy grail. I’m trying to set up a system where my risk is minimal (relatively speaking - per position) and my TP and lot sizes remain about the same ratio as the acct grows. I just recently up’d my lot sizes and my drawdown just took a hit…so my overall profit is down at the moment. As the acct nears the next level before I move lot sizes and TP targets, the drawdown percentage gets smaller.

Thanks for your input!!!

~knotthead

I have never relied on robots to trade successfully. I’ve always preferred manual trading. There is no easy way to attain success in forex.

Hi Knotthead, I have been struggling at all these, could you please help me setup a bot like yours?

Thanks

“So, again. Not saying the bot/system is the holy grail. I’m trying to set up a system where my risk is minimal (relatively speaking - per position) and my TP and lot sizes remain about the same ratio as the acct grows. I just recently up’d my lot sizes and my drawdown just took a hit…so my overall profit is down at the moment. As the acct nears the next level before I move lot sizes and TP targets, the drawdown percentage gets smaller.”

Hi Knotthead… I am developing a system very similar to yours (with all the same issues) and have just started running one of my own (modified) EA’s with micro lot trades (0.02) with a TP of 4 pips and no SL.

Reasoning behind the Bot is my SL’s are constantly being hit no matter where they are being placed and I refuse to have my trading behaviour modified by using smaller lots and longer SL positions.

The Good - The Bot basically uses the RSI Indicator. It places a sell every bar above the 55 and buy on every bar below the 35 on the EURUSD 1 minute chart. It was initially successful adding $85 to a $200 demo account within 2 hours… with only $18 drawdown. It uses a hedging strategy to keep the equity relatively equal and avoids using a SL (not advised on live account).

The Bad - if I let this Bot to run for say 12 hours the drawdown would have been unable to be sustained on such a small account as it had generated ~60 open positions and took a profit (~$0.91 - $1.07 slippage…) on another ~80 positions until I hit the “Close All” after a 2 hour period leaving the +$85, which was a great result for my first cBot. The price also appeared to adapt to the hedging method by ranging down the 10 pip middle toward the end of the 2 hours… adding to my mistrust of broker platforms.

I have some other ideas for Bots which I know would be far more consistent and I prefer to operate on the 5 minute charts with an 11 - 21 pip TP. Micro Lots of 0.02 are one of the keys to this strategy… finding the other 2 keys is the hard part.

Thanks for the post Jungle!

How many pairs are you running? I noted with my setup that I could only run 8-10 pairs at most with a $1k account…as if all positions opened and then added a triple position my draw down would practically get too close (for comfort) to my margin call. With a small account (under $1k) I would definitely go to the smallest micro lot possible (start off at .01) and only run it on 6 pairs or so. Do this in a demo account and see how it does. Obviously demos act a bit different;y than live accounts but at least you’ll get a good sense of how your system will perform.

I love the RSI EA idea. The one I run called Kingfisher puts a buy in (5M charts) when the RSI hits the 30 line or lower. Likewise it will put a sell once the RSI (21 bar setting) hits 70 or above. You may be getting a ton of positions firing off because of the tight RSI range you have (55 and 35) and if running a bunch of pairs, yeah your margin will get eaten up and/or you may get a margin call. On demo with a small account size, maybe try 6 pairs with a .01 lot size and see how that does.

hi

if I understand correctly the EA does a 1st order lets say buy EURUSD with lot size 0.01 and a target in pips of 12.5
it is is successful it makes 1.25 euros
if it is not successful waits for another buy opportunity this time opens with a lot size of 0.03 and sets the target in pips
so that when closing both positions money wise it makes the same 1.25 euros, so in pips the target for the second order could be very large if there is a steep downtrend, or small if the market is in a range

if my assumptions are correct then I see a couple of problems:
-for both orders there is no stop loss so in case of a flash crash like it happened to the yen and to the Swiss Franc the account can be wiped out

-Losses can be open for a long time so swap costs can become a burden

-the 2nd trade has a variable take profit in some cases it will be near in some others far and difficult to reach, so it is random bet

If you do a 10 year back test in a couple of pairs I guess you will find some losers open for years?

I guess this system can work for years, maybe decates, but in can blow in 1 minute

– Nope. See answers above. It is all about account size and relative lot sizes. I have a 10K account currently and I have 6-7k of margin still available with 12 pairs open. You can see all of my pairs, my entire history, what I have open and what I am making here: MT4 System by knotthead | Myfxbook

I just dumped more money into the account…so my draw down went way down. I raised lot sizes according to my chart though so as positions open up my draw down will rise again. The account is still churning, growing one TP at a time.

hi thanks for your previous answers! I appreciate the your transparency

I am curious in the case of some pairs that have multiple orders open and are loosing more than 500 pips like GBPAUD,USDJPY,CHFJPY, lets call them “old losers”. how/when are you going to close these? I guess these pairs are not opening new orders? and are waiting to reach the original TP? so the price needs to revert back a lot? or do you have a manual procedure for these?

does the new cash that comes into the account affect these “old losers”?
the new positions will have larger sizes and larger profits will they pay off the “old losers”? even if the original TP of these “old losers” is never reached

– They could. That is my decision whether or not to look at what I have made and be willing to take that hit or not. If I have made $30k in a few months (assuming I have 100K in the account making 9-10% per month) then I’ll be more than willing to kill the losers at -$250. Sure. Or I can just keep them open and not take a hit at all until they come back.

Good questions Moongraber! The more info you have the better. This system may not be for everyone. I’m making money and am in the black. My good friend is making about 10K a month at the moment doing the exact same thing.

I appreciate your questions and your interest!

~knotthead

Still rolling along.

MT4 System by knotthead | Myfxbook

What is the success?

Gain:+84.61% and Drawdown: 29.92% + crazy grid

85% growth since September. I’d call that a success. The draw down has been up to 29%, yes. Currently it is at 17%. As the account grows, the draw down follows (especially when I get to the next level and up my lot sizes). Shortly after I raise lot sizes the draw down goes up a bit, so be it. The thing is…eventually I’ll stop upping my lot sizes and start pulling money out. Check out the bottom section of the myfxbook page…you’ll see what I am pulling in each month and how that number is growing each month. Again, I am using the profit to grow the account at the moment. Sooner or later that profit the account is making will be coming to my bank account…and the draw down will be about the same.

The grid is a bit crazy because I keep adding more money. As long as the general direction is up and to the right and as long as my lot sizes are small enough compared to my account size to cover a potential 30% draw down… I’m giddy with excitement!

15% absolute growth
Nice steady numbers, keep it up

1 Like

Thanks Carlos!

I think some people are missing the main point of this thread. I am not saying the EA I am running is the success here (though it has been rock solid). I don’t think it matters which EA you run as long as it is consistent and as long as it opens and closes trades as it should. My point was that for the longest time I have been looking at the system (the EA or strategy) mainly. It occurred to me back in August that I was looking at Forex trading from the wrong perspective. What I think I discovered was that the focus should be on the lot sizes in relation to the account size (in order to cover open positions and the possibility of new positions opening)…covering the draw down. In relation to that, I looked at TP targets. The question I asked was: "Why am I looking for the silver bullet in the EA or trading strategy for the big wins and risking big losses at the same time if I can string a lot of small wins together and do it such a way that A) TPs are hit quickly, often and B) how can I do this without major stop losses. If I only need 4-5 pips for a TP and I should be able to get that easily due to market “noise” on smaller time frames, then why not run an EA on pairs on a 5 minute chart and run a simple but effective EA?

AS LONG AS I HAVE MARGIN to cover any open positions then the account will continue to grow. As the account grows, I up my lot sizes so the risk to reward ratio stays about the same while I let the account grow organically. At some point (and I don’t know what that number is yet), I’ll stop upping my lot sizes, my draw down will remain about the same, but the profit it makes will be something I can take out weekly, monthly, whatever…and the EA will continue to churn. At some point this thing will be making enough to cover what I make at work each month and then I will probably need to think whether or not I want to grow it more for cushion or start withdrawing that monthly profit. Either way, it is growing each month. Last month it made $2758, the month before it made $970-something. I upped lot sizes after last month and the profit grew. I just upped my lots sizes again over the April 1 weekend. My target profit for this month is $4k. We’ll see how it goes. If I don’t make it to $4k and I only churn 7% and get $3500…shoot, darn! (end sarcasm).

Happy trading everyone!

~knotthead

Also, if anyone is interested. I just started a new live account running the same “system” exclusively on the 1M time frame. Started April 1. I’m already up 3.58%.

1M-EA System by sbknott | Myfxbook

So you trade fix lots (although I see an aggressive martingale is employed after a loss) no SL, no TP and close trades which are just in profit. Why would we be interested in this?

Probably more later than sooner, but one thing can be certain, the market will get it’s revenge. She’s a *icth after all!

Nice to see another genuine myfxbook link. Its a great tool to use, tons of info produced that can help you out. Just a shame the scammers manipulate it and dont seem to get their accounts shut down

Thanks for the reply Bob!

Yes, a Martingale is applied. In most cases it works out and the account keeps churning. When it doesn’t… it never takes a loss…so how this will kill my account is beyond me. Again, if my lot sizes are small enough so that I have enough margin to cover those that go the opposite way… then what is going to crash they account? If, down the road, I decide to take the hit and close some of the open positions…they will be pretty small since THE ACCOUNT KEEPS GROWING. Case in point: I have a double trade (regular and Martingale) open from September on GBP/AUD. It was a small lot size compared to what I am trading now. I have the option to close it and take a relatively small hit and keep on cruising or I can just let it ride. It matters not. The account keeps growing with or without that pair. I never take a loss…because if I do, there is a Martingale there to trump it. Here are the possible scenarios in this set up:

  1. a trade opens (first lot size trade). It moves 5-6 pips and takes profit. Win.
  2. a trade opens, goes the wrong way, a martingale triple opens, it moves 2-3 pips and takes profit (see averaging closer to the TP). Win - even if the first lot size is negative, the Martingale takes profit which is set to my original TP target anyway.
  3. a trade opens and goes the wrong way, a Martingale then opens and it continues to go the wrong way. It stays open. Draw - only my draw down is influenced. Not a big deal if I have plenty of margin to play with since my lot sizes are set according to my account size and number of pairs I am running.

One could say “well what if all of your pairs get locked up in open trades?”… sure it *could happen. Not likely…but even if it does, my account has been growing constantly. I could take the hit on a handful of pairs to free them up to start making more trades. I’m still way in the positive at that point.

BTW, I don’t close trades, the EA does that. I just wake up in the morning and see 10-15 trades that fired off and took profit while I was sleeping. I don’t have to watch it at all. Margin? Check. Bots running? Check. Profit being made? Check. Lot sizes and TPs set according to account size? Check.

I sleep at night :slight_smile:

Point is, if you look at my myfxbook and look at the risk of ruin for this account…you’ll see that I would need a few thousand in SLs or negative trades for this to fail. I never have losses. ever. Martingale’s ensure that is the case.

Cheers and happy trading!

~knotthead