Daily Analysis Thread

[ForexPros]

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 11, 2009

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The US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow (NOV 12).

The report serves as a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week, and gives an indication to the health of the job market, as increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.

While this measure tends to be volatile, analysts predict no change since last week’s measure of 512.00k.

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Euro Dollar

In the past 24 hours, the Euro have not broken the support 1.4925 nor the resistance 1.5014, that the price stopped at again with accuracy (yesterday's high is exactly Monday's high at 1.5018). And now, it looks like there is an attempt to break the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is currently at 1.4975. If the Dollar manages to drag the Euro to below this line, the rising trend from last weeks high 1.4625 will be over. And that suggests there will be a correction matching the size of this trend that will force the Euro to areas below 1.49 where we find three attractive targets: Fibonacci 38.2 for the above mentioned uptrend at 1.4868, and Fibonacci 50% at 1.4821, and before them the resistance that stopped the Euro several times last week at 1.4897. the most important resistance is defiantly 1.5014, and only breaking it will improve the short-term technical outlook for the Euro, since such a break will lead the price up to areas not seen this year, first of which 1.5082 then 1.5144.

Support:
• 1.4975: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
• 1.4897: the resistance that stopped the price several times last week.
• 1.4821: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.

Resistance:
• 1.5014: previous resistance from 2008.
• 1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
• 1.5144: previous support from 2008.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the support 89.79 and reached the first target suggested for that break 89.40 successfully. The break of 89.79, the support that was provided to us by the rising trendline from last week's low, clearly means that the short-term trend is a down trend. However, the correction of yesterday's drop has already started, and is getting closer and closer to the broken trendline at 89.82 as this report is prepared. But the most important resistance is 90.23, where the falling trendline from October 27th top awaits. The bears will be in control as long as price is below this line that provides today's most important resistance. And if this happens, we expect the price to fall and test Fibonacci 61.8% support for the micro-term at 89.53, and may be a break as well, that will lead to the important bottom 88.82. If the opposite of what we expect happens, and we break the resistance 90.23, the price will be on its way to 90.90 first, and may be 91.31 later.

Support:
• 89.53: Fibhonaci 61.8% for the micro-term.
• 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
• 88.33: previous support.

Resistance:
• 90.23: the falling trendline from Oct 27th high.
• 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
• 91.31: Nov 4th high.

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Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

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Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

[ForexPros]

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 12, 2009


The U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the monthly Trade Balance index tomorrow (Nov 13).

The Index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports), which make up the largest component of a country's balance of payments.

Export data gives reflection on the US growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand.

The index serves as a powerful indicator for the streangth of the USD, because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports.

Analysts forecast tomorrow's index to stand at -32.00B, a drop from lasts month's reading of -30.70B.


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Euro Dollar

The Euro fluctuated in a tight range, breaking both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report, without reaching the target in either cases, and without any large moves to follow the breaks. Short-term support is still at 1.4975 where there is the moving average SMA100, and the previous support. If broken, the Euro will probably fall today in a correction for the last move up from 1.4625, targeting 1.4886 & 1.4836 and may be the most important support for medium-term currently at 1.4786. In this case, the later will become a crucial support, for setting the direction for the next few days, because breaking it would indicate that the drop from 1.5047 is not just a correction. Such a break would harm the technical outlook not just for the short-term but for the medium-term as well. The most important resistance is 1.5018, and breaking it would give the Euro a push to areas above yesterdays high, and we could finally see 1.51.

Support:
• 1.4975: the moving average SMA100 and a previous support.
• 1.4886: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
• 1.4836: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.

Resistance:
• 1.5018: Monday's & Tuesday's high.
• 1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
• 1.5144: previous support from 2008.

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USD/JPY

For the past 24 hours, the Dollar-yen did not break any of the levels specified in yesterday's report, it did not penetrate 90.23, it did not drop below 89.53. The most important thing to happen from a technical point of view was the fact that the falling trendline and the rising broken trendline came closer to each other. The most important resistance is provided by the falling trendline from October 27th top, which is currently at 90.00. The bears will be in control as long as price is below this line that provides today's most important resistance. And if this happens, we expect the price to fall and test Fibonacci 61.8% support for the short-term at 89.56, and may be a break as well, that will lead to the important bottom 88.82. If the opposite of what we expect happens, and we break the resistance 90.00, the price will be on its way to 90.90 first, and may be 91.31 later.

Support:
• 89.56: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
• 88.33: previous support.

Resistance:
• 90.00: the falling trendline from Oct 27th high.
• 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
• 91.31: Nov 4th high.

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Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji


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Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

[ForexPros]

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 16, 2009

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Fundamental Analysis, Canada

• Monday: Manufacturing Sales MoM (Previous -2.1%, Expected 1.6%)
• Wednesday: CPI MoM (Previous 0.0%, Expected 0.1%) & YoY (Previous -0.9%, Expected 0.3%). Core CPI MoM (Previous 0.3%, Expected 0.0%) & YoY (Previous 1.5%, Expected 1.7%).
• Thursday: Leading Indicators MoM (Previous 1.1%, Expected 1.7%).

Get further analysis on CAD/USD and other currency pairs at Forexpros.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro moved in both directions, before choosing the upside, creating a rising move that continued from Friday until after the open last night, that elevated the EURUSD to 1.4971 until now. The most important support for medium-term is 1.4786, which is a crucial support, for setting the direction for the next few days, because breaking it would indicate that the drop from 1.5047 is not just a correction. Such a break would harm the technical outlook not just for the short-term but for the medium-term as well. However, for the short-term, the most important support is 1.4934, and breaking it would indicate that the fall will carry on and target the important 1.4786, and if broken we will see a test of the bottom that we saw twice 1.4682. The resistance is at 1.4972, and breaking it would send the price to test the top that we saw twice last week 1.5018, which is the key to 1.5082 that could be seen for the first time this year.

Support:
• 1.4934: short-term support.
• 1.4856: Oct 28th & 29th high.
• 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625.

Resistance:
• 1.4972: short-term resistance.
• 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

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USD/JPY

After halting with a reasonable accuracy near the resistance of Friday's report 90.52, Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.02 and reached the first suggested target 89.60. Friday's price behavior introduced the support 89.46, that we will adopt as support of the day. IF this support is taken, we will finally see the long awaited visit of 88.82, the important support for the medium-term. And if broken the next target will be October 13th low 88.13. As for the resistance, it comes from short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.12. A break here would indicate that the odds of surpassing Friday's high are very good, and that will target 90.90 first, and may be 91.31. Even though the falling trendline from 92.31 was broken on Thursday, still the technical picture of the medium-term is hazy, and we await more signals to help us determine the direction of the medium-term.

Support:
• 89.46: obvious support on the hourly chart.
• 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.

Resistance:
• 90.12: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
• 91.31: Nov 4th high.

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Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji
Get more Forex education at Forexpros

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Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
.

[ForexPros]

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 17, 2009

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Fundamental Analysis, Australia

• Tuesday: Reserve Bank's Board November Minutes (Text Report).
• Wednesday: Westpac Leading Index (Previous 1.1%, Expected N/A).
• Thursday: Average Weekly Wages QoQ (Previous 1.2%, Expected N/A)
& YoY (Previous 6.1%, Expected N/A).


More on AUD/USD and other currencies on Forexpros.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro moved in both directions, breaking both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report, without being able to reach the target in both cases. We have witnessed a swift move during yesterday's trading, when the Euro dropped very fast to 1.4879 only to rise with the same light speed to 1.5014. This move has founded an important support at 1.4879, where the rising trendline from November 3rd bottom meets yesterday's low. If this support is broken, we will be heading to a test of Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4782, which is also an important level. As for the resistance, after the price behavior we witnessed in the past few days, the area 1.4982-1.5018 became a gathering for several short-term resistance levels that are very close to each other. We will choose the lower limit of that area as our resistance of the day, if 1.4982 is broken, we will see price levels that have not been seen this year, as we will target 1.5082 first, then 1.5145.

Support:
• 1.4934: short-term support.
• 1.4879: the rising trendline from Nov 3rd bottom, and yesterday's low.
• 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625.

Resistance:
• 1.4982: the lower limit of the resistance area 1.4982-1.5018.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
• 1.5145: previous resistance from 2008.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in yesterday's report 89.46, and reached the first suggested target 88.82 successfully, in a long awaited visit to areas below 89. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, after establishing a support at 88.90. If this level holds, we will see a correction of yesterday's drop, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.88. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.

Support:
• 88.90: obvious support on the hourly chart.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.

Resistance:
• 89.27: Nov 11th low.
• 89.88: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 90.73: intraday top.

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Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji.

For charts and other trading tools see Forexpros.

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Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

[ForexPros]

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 18, 2009

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Fundamental Analysis, UK

The UK National Statistics Bureau will publish the monthly Retail Sales measurement Tomorrow (Nov 19).
Retail Sales are a measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the UK.
It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the UK economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Analysts expect tomorrow’s measurement to stand at 0.60%, a slight increase from last month.

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Euro Dollar

As expected, the Euro dropped after breaking 1.4934, reaching the first suggested target 1.4879 successfully, and getting close somehow to the second target and important level 1.4786. This behavior only gave us more confidence in the importance of 1.4786, where there is Fibonacci 61.8% for the up-move from 1.4625 to 1.5047, especially with the rising trendline from August 17th low, approaching this level. Short-term support is nearby at 1.4876, a break here would target Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from yesterday's low which is at 1.4839. This is the last notable support before the all important 1.4786. The technical outlook for the short-term will not turn positive before breaking Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Monday's top at 1.4935. If this happens, the Euro will bounce to 1.4998 first, and if we can break this level, we have the right to wait for 1.5082 for the first time this year.

Support:
• 1.4876: short-term support.
• 1.4839: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.

Resistance:
• 1.4935: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%.
• 1.4998: intraday top from Monday.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report without being able to create any large moves in both cases. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, where Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is at 89.01. If this level holds, we will see an upward correction, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.87. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in case we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.

Support:
• 88.90: obvious support on the hourly chart.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.

Resistance:
• 89.27: Nov 11th low.
• 89.87: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 90.73: intraday top.

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Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji.

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

[ForexPros]

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 19, 2009


The Bank of Japan is due to hold a press conference Tomorrow (NOV 20).

The Bank regularly uses press releases in order to communicate with investors. Topics at such conferences generally include economic outlook, inflation and changes in interest rates.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the resistance 1.4935, and came very close to our first suggested target at 1.4998, when it reached a top at 1.4990, before retreating back to 1.49 this morning. Short-term resistance is provided by the falling trendline from yesterday's high on the intraday charts, which is currently at 1.4931. If this resistance is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.4998 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year. As for the support, stopping near Fibonacci 50% for the rising move from 1.4806 to yesterday's top 1.4990 makes it an important support at 1.4898, but the most important support is at 1.4786, and if broken we will be heading towards November 13th bottom 1.4820 first, then the most important support at this stage 1.4786, where there is Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4625 to 1.5047. Especially with the rising line from August 17th low getting close to this.

Support:
• 1.4876: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4806 to 1.4990.
• 1.4820: November 13th low.
• 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.

Resistance:
• 1.4931: the falling trendline from yesterday's top on the intraday charts.
• 1.4998: intraday top from Monday.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen is still holding on above 89 , but on the other hand it was not able to surpass the previous top at 89.52. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, where Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is at 89.01. If this level holds, we will see an upward correction, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.87. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in case we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.

Support:
• 89.01: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.

Resistance:
• 89.27: Nov 11th low.
• 89.87: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 90.73: intraday top.

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Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji.


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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

[ForexPros]

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 23, Supplemental


Fundamental Weekly Outlook

EU:
• Monday: France PMI Manufacturing (Previous 55.6, Forecast 55.8) & PMI Services (Previous 57.7, Forecast 57.4). Germany PMI Manufacturing (Previous 51.0, Forecast 51.6) & PMI Services (Previous 50.7, Forecast 51.2). Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 50.7, Forecast 51.2) & PMI Services (Previous 52.6, Forecast 52.9).
• Tuesday: Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders MoM (Previous 2.0%, Forecast 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -23.1%, Forecast -17.1%). Business Confidence Indicator (Previous -1.78, Forecast -1.65). Germany GDP QoQ (Previous 0.7%, Forecast 0.7%) & YoY, (Previous -4.7%, Forecast -4.7%), Private Consumption (Previous 0.7, Forecast -0.4%), Capital Investment (Previous 0.8%, Forecast 0.8%), Imports (Previous -5.1%, Forecast 3.5%), Exports (Previous -1.2%, Forecast 4.1%). IFO - Business Climate (Previous 91.9, Forecast 92.5), IFO - Current Assessment (Previous 87.3, Forecast 88.0), IFO – Expectations (Previous 96.8, Forecast 97.3). France Consumer Spending MoM (Previous 2.3%, Forecast 2.4%) & YoY (Previous 1.0%, Forecast 2.3%). Business Confidence Indicator (Previous 89, Forecast 91).
• Wednesday: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Previous 4, Forecast 4).
• Thursday: Germany CPI MoM (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.0%) & YoY (Previous 0.0%, Forecast 0.5%).
• Friday: Germany Import Price Index YoY (Previous -11.0%, Forecast -8.7%) & MoM (Previous -0.9%, Forecast 0.4%).. France Consumer Confidence. Business Confidence Indicator (Previous -35, Forecast -35) Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (Previous -18, Forecast -17).

US:
• Monday: Existing Home Sales MoM (Previous 9.4%, Forecast 2.3%).
• Tuesday: GDP QoQ (Previous 3.5%, Forecast 2.9%), Personal Consumption (Previous 3.4%, Forecast 3.2%), Consumer Confidence (Previous 47.7, Forecast 47.5), House Price Index MoM (Previous -0.3%, Forecast -0.1%). Minutes of Nov. 4 FOMC Meeting (Text Report).
• Wednesday: Personal Income (Previous 0.0%, Forecast 0.2%), Personal Spending (Previous -0.5%, Forecast -0.6%). Durable Goods Orders (Previous 1.0%, Forecast 0.5%), Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (Previous -0.9%, Forecast 0.7%). Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 500K, Forecast 505K), University of Michigan Confidence (Previous 66.0, Forecast 67.0), New Home Sales MoM (Previous -3.6%, Forecast 0.8%).

JP:
• Wednesday: Trade Balance (Previous 520.6 B, Forecast 465.5 B).
• Friday: Jobless Rate (Previous 5.3%, Forecast 5.4%), Tokyo CPI YoY (Previous -2.4%, Forecast -2.3%), Tokyo CPI EX Food & Energy YoY (Previous -1.4%, Forecast -1.4%), National CPI YoY (Previous -2.2%, Forecast -2.4%), National CPI EX Food & Energy YoY (Previous -1.0%, Forecast -1.1%). Retail Sales MoM (Previous 0.9%, Forecast -0.9%) & YoY (Previous -1.4%, Forecast -1.6%).

UK:
• Wednesday: GDP QoQ (Previous -0.4%, Forecast -0.3%) & YoY (Previous -5.2%, Forecast -5.1%), Private Consumption (Previous -0.6%, Forecast -0.2%), Exports (Previous -1.4%, Forecast 1.4%), Imports (Previous -2.2%, Forecast 2.0%).

AU:
• Monday: New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM (Previous 2.9%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -2.0%, Forecast N/A).
• Tuesday: CB Leading Index (Previous 1.8%, Forecast N/A).
• Thursday: Private Capital Expenditure (Previous 3.3%, Forecast 1.0%).

CA:
• Monday: Retail Sales (Previous 0.8%, Forecast 0.6%) & Retail Sales Less Autos (Previous 0.5%, Forecast 0.4%).
• Friday: Current Account (Previous -11.2%, Forecast N/A).



Technical Analysis


Euro Dollar:

The pair has pulled off the low of the range (1.4800), and looks prepared to move back higher to test some former highs. This will either be confirmed or rejected based on movement through the following levels:
A move back above 1.4890 indicates movement back above 1.4900 and a test of recent swing highs at 1.4930-1.4940. We have trendline support above this at 1.4950-1.4965, this will also act as resistance. Beyond is resistance at 1.4980-1.4990.

Keep in mind that old support and resistance become new resistance and support respectively if a level is moved through and then retreats back. Movement through one level indicates movement to the next, and failures are likely to move back to other levels mentioned. Support and resistance does not mean rates will move exactly to the price mentioned, rather they are profit taking opportunities in those areas (or possibly entry prices if moved through) as retracements are more likely around those levels. This is misunderstood by many traders, and I will elaborate on it on an upcoming post on my blog.

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For further in-depth reading on USD/CAD and other major currencies, visit our Technical Analysis section.

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A drop back below 1.4840 is our first indication of a move lower. The trend line this move would break is short term and not of high importance. The closest major level is 1.4800. A break below that would be significant.

A break below 1.4800, if it is legit, will find support at 1.4770, 1.4740-1.4730 then 1.4700. If the break is not legit and just a stop run, it will likely tucker out by 1.4780-1.4770 and then reverse. I say that only we because we all know there are a pile of stops sitting down there.

Keep in mind that since we know stop hunting is a common practice, whether intentional or not, and is a strategy in and of itself. If there is a level that is likely to have many stops it, it seems to create a gravitational pull and can result in a quick surge but often retraces. Watch and see if you see this happening around critical levels. If there is interest I can post a article on how to trade this phenomenon. Have a great day trading everyone!

Forex Analysis written by Cory Mitchell, in conjunction with Forexpros

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

[ForexPros]

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 23, 2009

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Fundamental Insight:

Traders await tomorrow's release of the Ifo Business Climate Index by the German Institute for Economic Research.
The index is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses, and determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysts expect tomorrow's reading to stand at 92.50, and increase from last month's 91.90.

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Euro Dollar:

The Euro dropped and broke the specified support in Friday’s report 1.4877, successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.4820. But it stayed above the most important support 1.4786. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Friday’s low on intraday charts, and if broken we will get another chance to test 1.4786 after Friday’s attempt that stopped at 1.4800. The above mentioned support will stay the most important, especially with the rising line from August 17th low getting close to this level. Short-term resistance is 1.4952, and if it is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.5018 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year.

Support:
• 1.4881: the rising trendline from Friday’s low on intraday charts.
• 1.4820: November 13th low.
• 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.

Resistance:
• 1.4952: the falling trendline from 1.5047.
• 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

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USDJPY:

Dollar-Yen moved in a very tight range on Friday, without any technically significant moves! The down movement has slowed down, drawing our attention to what could be a wedge pattern, which is a pattern that could limit the current drop to the bottom of this pattern, or a support that is close to it, and could push price higher on the short-term. If this scenario turns out to be right, we will rise and break short-term resistance 89.05 where there is the moving average SMA100, and we will witness a rising move targeting the falling trendline from October 26th top, and the upper limit of the above mentioned pattern at 89.71 first, and if broken we could see a jump to 90.73. On the other hand, if the short-term support at 88.72 is broken, we will target 88.13 which is the last significant support before the last 15 years low 87.10

Support:
• 88.72: Nov 17th low.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.

Resistance:
• 89.05: the moving average SMA100.
• 89.71: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
• 90.73: intraday top.

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Forex Trading Analysis, by Forexpros

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

[ForexPros]

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 24, 2009

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Fundamental Insight

The US Census Bureau will release the Monthly New Home Sales Report tomorrow (Nov 25th).

The report helps analyze the strength of the US housing market, and the economy as a whole, by measuring the annualized number of new residential buildings that were sold during the previous month.
The new home sales report is quite volatile and subject to huge revisions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts expect last month’s measure of 402.00K to rise to 408.00K.

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Euro Dollar

Although it broke the resistance at 1.4952, The Euro was unable to surpass 1.50. The sharp drop that followed made 1.4875 the most important support for the short-term. This support, could reverse this drop, and initiate a rising move. But if it is broken, the drop coming from 1.4997 will continue, targeting 1.4820 first, and then the most important support for the time being at 1.4786. On the other hand, short-term resistance is 1.4951, and if it is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.5018 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year.

Support:
• 1.4875: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4820: November 13th low.
• 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.

Resistance:
• 1.4951: short-term resistance.
• 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen moved in a tight range again, but it dropped to 88.54 this morning which is the same level that stopped yesterday's drop! The down movement has slowed down, drawing our attention to what could be a wedge pattern, which is a pattern that could limit the current drop to the bottom of this pattern, or a support that is close to it, and could push price higher on the short-term. If this scenario turns out to be right, we will rise and break short-term resistance 88.97 where there is the moving average SMA100, and we will witness a rising move targeting the falling trendline from October 26th top, and the upper limit of the above mentioned pattern at 89.71 first, and if broken we could see a jump to 90.73. On the other hand, if the short-term support at 88.72 is broken, we will target 88.13 which is the last significant support before the last 15 years low 87.10

Support:
• 88.56: short-term support.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.

Resistance:
• 88.97: the moving average SMA100.
• 89.71: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
• 90.73: intraday top.

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