10k to 1mil in one yr

yall are right…but i wasnt telling yall how to make ur 20pips a day…

i may sound a bit crazy…but i think 20 pips is the easiest when ur only going for 5-10, maybe 20 on pairs like the gpyjpy using the 1hr charts…especially when u wait for the right candle…[B]which throws risk/ratio out the window[/B] dont have to explain why…and i like to go for 30pips using dailys…and I DO NOT USE STOP LOSS…STOP LOSS IS MAKE LOSS be confident about ur ****…but thats just me…ur wondering ‘‘this guy is going to have -100pips when he was only going for 20’’…come back the next day , positon doesnt look as appetizing, close it a take ur losses…52 weeks was jus an example…but then who cares

i read somewhere that says im not taking margin into consideration? elaborate cuz there is no way u can get margin called with one to 2 positions open when its5-10% of ur account…unless i die and nobody closes a bad position for me…but then who cares

and somewhere else i read something about bad days…remember this was all a big example…it may take alittle more time than exactly 52 weeks…and the key to this concept is to [B][I][U]WALK AWAY AND DONT COME BACK TILL THE NEXT DAY[/U][/I][/B]…but then who cares

Statistically, what is the difference if you notice a lot of great trends in a day and make 7 times more trades per day than usual, and make 140 pips in a day? I mean, as long as you aren’t getting fatigued and making bad descisions, and as long as you are waiting for your current trades to close and keeping the same margin ratio, if the system just applies the same ideas to the same charts over and over, you should theoretically be able to go nonstop and speed up the process so that you make $1 million in far less than a year, if you really work your *** off.

Unless I’m misunderstanding, and the point of walking away is to just set your “take profit” and “stop loss” and then let it do it’s thing, to keep emotion out of the picture.

Good luck.

The problem with your strategy is simple. Its possible to lose 10, 15, 20 trades in a row. Its called tail risk. (normal curve)

Lets say week 10, you lose 20 trades in a row. Your account is now down 15 to 20%. Now you have to make up 30% or more to break even (back to week 10).

I’m not saying its not possible, but it will be very difficult.

That is assuming that your trades are normally distributed. Even so, you’d have to be SO unlucky to hit 20 bad trades in a row… like 3 standard deviations or more from the norm.

Example: Flipping a coin 20 times and having it land tails 20 times, the probability is 1.2^20, or 0.00000095367431640625%

I realize that forex trading is not binomially distributed… I don’t know how it is, if at all.

“If if if”. It’s possible to do everything perfectly right and hit 50 or even 100 losing trades in a row. The chances may be a million to 1, but it’s still there. It’s equally as possible to win 20 trades as lose 20 trades, if all you are considering is chance and not the trading system itself.

The whole point of the normal distribution is that over time, your system should expect to perform as expected ______ amount of the time. Yes, you will have anomolies where sometimes you will win more than expected in a day or week, other times you will lose more than expected. But unless a statistical miracle occurs, you don’t really have to worry about making 20 bad trades in a row.

But I’m no statistical expert so I could be wrong on this.

It’s a good idea to keep a higher bankroll than you expect to need, maybe twice or three times as much, but having 20x seems quite excessive.

…I’m in no way claiming that making an average of 20 pips a day for 365 days in a row is any easier though.

FX trading is not random as your coin flip (or should not be just luck that you win and lose - Hopefully you have a better strategy), but that still doesn’t mean your win and loses will not follow a normal distribution curve. Look at your trades over time. Go back back 200 to 300 trades and tell me it does not follow (very closly) to to normally distributed bell curve.

In the history of my trading, I’ve had 19 winners in a row and 14 losses in a row. 19 and 14 are on the tail end (3 std). I have had only one occurrence of this, but I’ve had several 7,8,9 and 10 losses / wins in row.

According to your math (0.00000095367431640625%), my 19 in a row doesn’t statistically have a chance.

Remember, I didn’t say your strategy didn’t have a chance, i"m just saying its going to be very hard. I hope you losses come at the beginning and not the end.

Right now my record shows to be on a winning strategy like that to produce those results. Do I expect it to play out in the end… hell no! I think traders are more math and science guys (and gals). We look at short term numbers and predict a long term result by keeping with the same consistent level of performance. In the real world of trading, it just won’t work out because of to many unforeseen variables that throw a wrench in the system. Oh well, big profit or little profit, being in the black at the end of the year is all I care about.

I dont understand here, are you saying you are going to attempt this, or are you just throwing out some math to get some new people excited about large numbers? In either case, you don’t need the foreign exchange to punch numbers into a calculator and come up with magical profits on spreadsheets.

First of all, I think the majority of the people responding to this thread will never make any large amount of money in the FX market. Why? Because they have too many preconceived notions about failing. If your mindset is so hung up on “risk” and “loss” then guess what, you will lose most of your trades over time. We are all aware of the market realities, and it’s not secret that nobody wins 100% of the time.

If you develop a trading system or follow a system created by someone else, you’ll be able to quantify your overall profits or losses. To make 20 pips in profit per day is not difficult, considering the market fluctuates AT LEAST that much on many major pairs daily.

The idea presented by the OP is feasible…and while hitting $1.2 million in 1 year is certainly ambitious, it is far from impossible. To add to that, if you are aiming for $1.2 million, you may end up making $800K…but hey, to turn $10K into $800K in a year is not too shabby.

I don’t think n00bs should think that making money is easy in the FX market or otherwise, but at the same time, don’t discourage people from setting ambitious goals simply because you are too afraid to do so for yourself.

Setting up any new trader with an UNREALISTIC goal, which 10k–>1.2million most certainly is, will not only surely bust their account, but it’ll leave them bitter about the market, and likely unwilling to pursue it any further. So what glory is there in blinding a new trader with flashy profits, when you could essentially be robbing them of the opportunity to participate in a market they could’ve otherwise profited from.

The problem with compounding your gains isn’t the difficulty in making the pips in a day, or even a week, but it is the drawdowns that occur, as your risk is increasing exponentially along with your rewards. And I’m sure you know that large drawdowns can kill you, because the hole you dig is a lot more difficult to climb out of percentage wise.

Try throwing in a few losses in your compounding spreadsheets and you’ll notice an extreme drop in your end balance with just a few added losses. The impressive part isn’t the numbers, it’s the consistency inherent in such an idea, and it requires near trading perfection to get those astronomical gains.

Also, your disregard for the term “risk” and your method of concluding profits from volatility leaves me to believe that you have either never traded a live account, or have not been doing so for very long. Good luck to you, really.

No disrespect but I, for one, hope you’re wrong :wink:

If one is consistently getting a 2:1 reward/risk, with a 100:1 ratio, and only a 50% win ratio, they could still make quite a nice profit…getting to 1mil in one year?..not with 10K, but maybe in 3 years.

As long as one manages to keep the “discipline” it takes…which in this forum seems well emphasized…then I think it is quite realistic.

I think the “new” traders you reference are those that are blindly looking for those hundreds pips trades with huge lot sizes and leverage to get them there in a flash, which utimately leads to the worst case scenario you describe. And I don’t think you’ll find many of those traders here…yet :wink:

In reality all one needs is a well managed plan (trading plan & money management), and putting the money management goals in a spreadsheet that helps keep that in perspective is what every good business plan has.

Anyways, to put my money where my mouth is once I go live which I’m planning to soon, I’ll put my plan to the test & will post my results.

Good pips to you :slight_smile:

I will never be a millionare.

I use my profits for living expenses and living comfortably. This is a nice way to live.

Stacking up your money is also fraught with uncertainty. You could be dead tomorrow. :smiley: :smiley: :smiley:

Unrealistic for you, ambitious for another. Really, it’s a matter of semantics and personality…but I’ll play along with your choice of words. As unrealistic as that goal may be, you have ZERO chance of making over 1 million dollars if you never try.

Second, a new trader who does not take the time to get a proper understanding of how the market works will have a tough time turning a profit regardless of what his/her goals are. That much is obvious, and who are you to make assumptions that all traders reading this thread are new? The bottom line is that the proposition the OP made is possible.

The problem with compounding your gains isn’t the difficulty in making the pips in a day, or even a week, but it is the drawdowns that occur, as your risk is increasing exponentially along with your rewards. And I’m sure you know that large drawdowns can kill you, because the hole you dig is a lot more difficult to climb out of percentage wise.

You mean you wouldn’t reinvest any gains you make? If you start with $10K and make $2K in profit over a week, then you start investing with an account equity of $12K. You can choose what percentage of your account to risk on a trade, and as long as you do not increase that percentage, your effective “risk” stays the same. What’s your point?

Try throwing in a few losses in your compounding spreadsheets and you’ll notice an extreme drop in your end balance with just a few added losses. The impressive part isn’t the numbers, it’s the consistency inherent in such an idea, and it requires near trading perfection to get those astronomical gains.

No, it doesn’t require “near perfect” trading. AT most, losses would only increase the time it takes to reach the goal…and to make 20 pips per day in profit, that can be done with relatively high consistency. I routinely make at least that many pips in a few hours of trading.

Also, your disregard for the term “risk” and your method of concluding profits from volatility leaves me to believe that you have either never traded a live account, or have not been doing so for very long. Good luck to you, really.

You just love making assumptions don’t you? Well, I’ll leave you to your trading which I am sure is approaching the hundred dollar mark at any moment now. Why don’t you develop the: “Coward’s FX Trading System: Zero Risk and up to Zero Pips Per Day - Hey, you might not get rich but at least you won’t lose any money!”

I know you are new to this forum with only 7 posts.

As an experienced poster, I can tell you that this is a high quality forum and people are allowed to express their differing points of view on subjects as long as they do so politely.

Unfortunately, your last comment quoted here is in very bad taste and I, for one, certainly do not appreciate it. :mad:

As a newbie here, I would ask you to learn quickly, like right now, to be considerably more diplomatic with your replies so that quotes like the above do not continue in your posts.

You will then be welcome on this forum and able to get away with much. :stuck_out_tongue:

Hint - make regular use of the smiles box provided. They provide a good substitute for comments otherwise distasteful. Also make good use of humour if possible.

[B]Eric , Try to Pass Smile Like PipHacker:) :slight_smile:
PipHacker!!!:smiley: :smiley: [/B]

I’m all for large ambitions and dreaming big - but - I wanted to throw in the following idea concerning money management, which I honestly think has alot of validity:

[I]The 2 percent rule is a basic tenet of money management. Even if the odds are stacked in your favor, it is inadvisable to risk a large portion of your capital on a single trade. The 2% rule states that you should never risk more than 2% of your account equity on a single trade. In the words of Market Wizard Larry Hite: �Never risk more than 1% of total equity on any trade. By only risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade.�[/I]

Regularly risking say 10% of your equity on any one trade is an overly dangerous undertaking IMO -

Presuming one has a profitable trading system and not living off it, I think the next biggest challenge in making it to 1 mil is getting over the “self-sabotaging” mentality that, for some reason buried deep in our psychy, says we don’t deserve it (heard it in a Zig Ziglar or Denis Waitley speal some time back). One reason why the 2 or 5% of us making it in this game are probably the ones that figured out how to get past that hurdle. The rest of us have to learn accept the new levels of financial gain as we reach them.

After making my 1K to 1mil spreadsheet :rolleyes: I was looking at what 2% looked like at those higher levels and I can see how it could play with your mind. Here’s what I mean (you could equate Trade# to Day# if you wish):


at the 10K level:
Trade#  result    Balance    Profit/(Loss)     Pips     Lots
102	Lose	 $9,187.19    $(187.49) 	(21)	0.9
103	Lose	 $9,003.45    $(183.74) 	(20)	0.9
104	Win	 $9,363.58      $360.14 	40 	0.9
105	Win	 $9,738.13      $374.54 	37 	1
106	Win	 $10,127.65      $389.53 	39	1

same strategy but now reached the 100K level:

Trade#  result       Balance   Profit/(Loss)   Pips    Lots
190	Win	 $99,445.66    $3,824.83 	 39 	9
191	Win	 $103,423.48  $3,977.83 	 39 	10
192	Lose	 $101,355.01  $(2,068.47)	 (20)	10
193	Win	 $105,409.21  $4,054.20 	 39 	10
194	Lose	 $103,301.03  $(2,108.18)	 (20)	10
195	Lose	 $101,235.01  $(2,066.02)	 (20)	10

Ok, how about when reaching the 500K level:

Trade#  result       Balance   Profit/(Loss)  Pips    Lots
263	Win	 $530,730.82  $20,412.72 	 38 	53
264	Win	 $551,960.06  $21,229.23 	 38 	55
265	Lose	 $540,920.85  $(11,039.20)	 (20)	54
266	Lose	 $530,102.44  $(10,818.42)	 (20)	53
267	Win	 $551,306.53  $21,204.10 	 38 	55

You can see, the amount of loss per trade of approx $200 at the 10K level is within our normal financial comfort zone for many?, but compared to the 100K level, the loss per trade of $2000 starts to get a little uncomfortable…then at the 500K level we’re losing $10,000 per trade :eek: …now it’s really uncomfortable because that’s way out of our comfort zone of what we’re used to playing with …and we choke so to speak, even though nothing else has changed…still the same trading strategy getting just 20-40 pips at a 2:1 reward/risk ratio.

Want to know what it looks like at 1mil?..well imagine the 500K level, only doubled…no big deal eh? :smiley:

So if I may go so far as to say, the trick is to know what your level is and when you are the there, learn to deal with it. Maybe you’ve blown an account or two before…so what amount did you reach before you blew it? That would be your level. If it was your first and it took a nose dive right away, then maybe you started out too high to begin with.

Food for thought anyways. Happy trades ahead :slight_smile:

I may be new to this forum, but so what? Unless there is an unwritten rule #5, being polite when unwarranted is not a rule of the forums.

Unfortunately, your last comment quoted here is in very bad taste and I, for one, certainly do not appreciate it. :mad:

I stand by my comment. If someone comes across as a preaching douchebag, I’m gonna call them on it. :smiley: In fact, you’re heading into that territory right now… :eek:

As a newbie here, I would ask you to learn quickly, like right now, to be considerably more diplomatic with your replies so that quotes like the above do not continue in your posts.

You will then be welcome on this forum and able to get away with much. :stuck_out_tongue:

Hint - make regular use of the smiles box provided. They provide a good substitute for comments otherwise distasteful. Also make good use of humour if possible.

How about you learn to stay on topic and stop trying to pad your post count with worthless replies. LOL OMG WTF!!! ROFL!!!

Eric,
Put your confidence where it counts ( on a live trading platform ). Show us you can do it. Get a public trading journal started in forextown and make that million. You have one year, lets get going.

You know what they say “money talks and bs walks”. Will you walk?

Now here are some damn smiley’s
:slight_smile: :slight_smile:

You could learn a lot from tymen. Both in trading and as a human.

If I could read just one post from a noob stating how they made a million instead of I am going to be rich then argue with seasoned traders that are trying to help.

That garbage has came and gone so many times.

:slight_smile: :slight_smile:

Eric, chill your boots. Have a read of Tymen’s posts and you’ll realise he has contributed loads to this forum and is very generous with his knowledge. So no need to go on the rampage eh? :wink:

Anyway, to topic. I did these sums when I first started, but they’re a bit like financial masturbation. Like most traders, my profit targets are to make as much money as possible without risking so much that blowing my account up is probable. But Escoe, you inadvertedly came up with the catchiest wrongest phrase to remember ever:
STOP LOSS IS MAKE LOSS
… it’s a bit like the person who once told me when wiring a plug that the way to remember the colours is the L of bLue is for Live. Both pieces of advice will make you blow up, albeit in slightly different ways

I’ve read a lot of these threads and participated in some of them and it always follows the same sort of pattern :), one guy says it can be done and a bunch say it cant. For a new trader 10k to 1 million probably is unrealistic, not because there’s anything inherently naive with the idea but as with all professions becoming good takes time and a lot of practice.

I’ve had the the opportunity of meeting a person who consistently over 6 years was able to pull on average 30% per month from the markets. Its all about being consistent. If your winning more than your losing (something we all aim for) and you have a decent R:R ratio it’s an attainable goal, maybe not in a year but that depends on the individual trader.

Compounding drawdowns does not affect your risk, as your risk should stay the same on any given trade. A side note on drawdowns though, if a trader is using an automated system or is blindly firing off trades because of a systems rules then they’re are likely to have large drawdowns. If you become slightly discretionary, picking A grade set ups and knowing when not to trade you can greatly limit your drawdowns but again this comes with experience.

I think you shouldn’t restrict yourself to whats possible and whats not based on some predetermined notion. Look to your own results and see what its telling you. Every ones different, with different risk tolerances and competencies. People are achieving such growth percentages, its up to us to either try and emulate them or not.