How can you consistently win in the FX using Technical Analysis?

Well, that is a basic thing that you have to understand about technical analysis, otherwise you will miss the whole point of it. The reason why moving averages or any other common indicators works, is because traders believe it works, so they use those indicators. For example, the 200 MA known as a powerful resisting/supporting indicator, and many traders set their orders near the level of the 200 MA because they learned that it has technical impact. Therefore the 200 MA becomes a powerful resisting or supporting indicator. On the same weight, the 145 MA could have the meaning, but everybody uses the 200 MA since that is what they learned. In other words, if everybody did not use the same indicators, or look at the same potential break up/down levels, the entire technical analysis system wouldn’t work.

I couldn’t agree with you more.

This thread hasn’t been responded to in almost 4 years, up until today.

Why the thread dredge?

It seem to be a pandemic these days.

Where is the problem? I don’t see one. Yes, I was also irritated by those ole threads popping up at first. But frankly, isn’t it a chance to read some stuff what is in here what would be off forever just sitting in the database and never read again?

I for myself knew after a while that he did it and just an eye on the nick and I knew what I had to deal with and not clicking on it or maybe clicking on it if it sounded a little intersting.

The solution for the issue if it would be taken as such would be to delete threads which weren’t visited for a year or whatever time would be okay for most. Somebody to ban, just because he answers to threads even older ones is a little overregulation, no? You wanna go the path of the cftc now here in the forum as well? Then maybe after a while we would all have to go to offshore forums, lol …

It’s a coin which has two sides. I mean my 2 cent coin here, lol. :stuck_out_tongue:

It’s just bad forum protocol to address things that are years old.

Not just this forum, but ANY forum board I’ve joined it’s pretty much frowned upon.

Most of them are just rehashed questions we’ve seen a million times anyway.

I don’t know about you, but I do read stuff on here all the time that is dated years ago. But there’s just no point in reviving a thread, or replying to a member who is most likely no longer active.

Well, I can understand your point. I guess. It’s just, to ban somebody just because he is acting different what somebody would expect to is in my eyes a little overregulation. Why not ask him for the reasons and is it really that annoying? That there are threads with almost the same or similar questions is not an issue of age. Every day somebody pops up here with the new holy grail of making a fortune in some days. Or somebody asks how much trillions one could make. While there are threads enough with answers. I guess that’s just part of a forum. If you want to answer, you can. If you don’t, you are free to ignore it. I click often at “new posts” and then there is also the info when the thread was created.

As I wrote, just my 2 cents. :slight_smile:

Reviving old threads is usually just a way to get post counts up.

Getting post counts up at BP allows one to start posting links.

Posting links = spamming in most cases.

So the banning isn’t about being unfair, it’s about preempting someone boosting their post count enough to post their “Forex Riches: $200.00 to $200,000,000.00 In 7 Weeks” sales crap.

It’s not about penalizing random noobs.

Nice point, Chris.
It is important that if you use indicators to make sure each indicator is not alike and they do things with varying capacities. In other words, the Williams Oscillator, MACD, stochastics are all oscillators. If those are the 3 you use, then you are dead in the water, because they will form a confluence just by their similarity.OTOH, you want a confluence.
The pair I posted is the CHF/JPY. I have been saying for a few weeks this pair is getting ready for a plunge. This is the monthly chart, so it needs to be viewed in its context. The monthly has hit the top or an extreme of an SD channel. By looking to the left, we see the peak of the cloud as it is in the future. That can be constructed as R. Looking to the right, the cloud has leveled, which means in the future, at least a correction is due. The cloud is a state of equilibrium. The tenken and kijun have leveled around the area of the cloud, while the kijun is actually under the cloud. The stochastics is OB. A look at the weekly and daily charts are showing momentum still favoring a move north, which is the only thing holding thing holding the move south back.
Regardless, once it begins, and considering all the indications on the monthly it is still expected for the move south to take the pair to a minimum of 90.04, which is the top of the cloud, and represents the median of price action, or its state of equilibrium.

But, yes. A methodology is something that is highly personal. The indicators of choice are highly personal. In using indicators, the main thing to look for is a confluence of events or your very best indicators will lie to you.

Wasn’t that 7 months and not 7 weeks, lol? :stuck_out_tongue:

Frankly, I have no idea. I am no forum admin and don’t like to become one. I guess they do their job great and better than at other forums here what I can see. If somebody comes up with spamming those posts get deleted very rapid.

Plus then I have not seen this particular poster spamming with links. Maybe he just likes that old questions would become answered or whatever. I have no idea, that’s why I suggested to ask him and not speculate. Speculation is something I do in the markets. Well okay, nobody is perfect, so I do it also here sometimes, lol. Just kidding a bit. However, if you ask him you will get why he did it. :slight_smile:

Please don’t think I like it to be a contrarian other than in markets, lol, but there are also andvantages as I pointed out above. Some old threads might contain some useful info and if there would not be an answer this info would be lost.

Well, back to optimizing my bot. You have a nice weekend! :slight_smile:

WRONG!!! DUDE!!!:35:
You don’t know what is out there~ Speak for yourself!!!

People do not show what they can do openly all the time! If they did, markets will behave differently.

well to consistantly win (or win constantly) on your trades is not possible. this is because there are Millions of ppl acting on the markets, and never are the same ppl doing the same trades twice. (each period is truely unique).

the key is expectancy, you need to win more then you lose. this is why risk management is important. the key is having a system that gives an edge on the market, (wins more then it loses), its not about having an edge on any one person or peoples. the players in the market often dont have plans that allow them to make regular wins, (theyre wins are sparatic and low or neg expectancy).
also there are many triggers, indicators, parameters, Styles, Timeframes, even entry / exit, and risk rules, that basically mean that few people are using one plan for trading, some people dont even stick to one plan. (usually result in poor trades). some do well, others dont, this is where you can get an edge on the markets

Good good, info there, using a 2% risk i trade lots equal to about 100% i think, (the main thing for me is 2% risk and good SL size “often price based”).

I suggest you start here What is Risk Management? | Risk Management | Learn Forex Trading and read all the senior undergrad section. it covers most of the risk management topics.
in fact you should start at the first grade again, i have done so a couple of times. (ok maybe elementary as below that is easy to remember).

No one wants to win all the time, even if he/she can. Let the market continue to believe it cannot be done. Furthermore, no one wants to be watched.

You don’t use any stop loss or any indicators.
using chart harmonic pet
fib ret and ext
you use 50% of your capital only
double on 30 to 50 pips below your lost price or support/res
and the 50% you using to trade buy or sell at least 10 trade
the money management is the key to profit every time.
try this in demo and you start making money every TIME

Question, what do you do when the price does move against you, am i to understand you add to your position, hoping to gain more if and when the price reverses?

The answer is inside your question. You are right- many traders use technical analysis and some indicators are more common than the others. That is the reason why the work. In fact, if many traders did use the 200 sma as a strong resistance/support, it would not have the impact it has. In other words, technical indicators are working just we because we use them….

Hi Noob4fx I to am new to forex trading. I used to work in sportsbooks in Las Vegas and Reno Nv. A professional Gambler took me aside one day and told me how he made his living. Three Gospels are 1 DISCIPLINE 2 MONEY-MANAGEMENT 3 PATIENCES if one of these three gospels break down you are toast. No if’s no ands and no buts .
I am going to learn as much as my two brain cells will allow before I invest one dime in the market. Don’t worry about technical analysis and who might be using it. Your edge will be 1 DISCIPLINE 2 MONEY-MANAGEMENT 3 PATIENCES. Good Luck

Hi Brighton4…Noob4fx hasn’t been around these parts since 2006…just say’in…but still good advise for everyone :slight_smile:

the biggest issue that plagues traders is actually not Tech Analysis, its the Psychology of trading, and how the brain wants to avoid losses and pain. this is essential to why 90% of traders lose money.

Try reading a few books specifically on the issue. (Trading in the zone, Inside the mind of the turtles) are 2 great books on the issue).

Specifics, the key thing is that you have a plan and setups that you trade consistently. its not the best idea to ask everyone else what they’re doing. cause you’ll end up with multiple ideas and then not know what to do, and if you start trying all these ideas out and without being consistant with one specific plan you will likely get frustrated when you cannot tell which one works best.

a plan consists of at Minimum; a Setup, Risk and management rules, Profit taking Rules, reviewing of trades (especially the losses).
a plan should also be backtested. this inspires confidence in the plan. if you know how effective your plan is during a losing streak (Especially historical Drawdowns) you would be less likely to abandon it.

the Setup is a usually a Trigger Variable on the chart, and supporting indicators. Poplular setups include Moving Average Crossovers, Price Patterns, Support and Resistance and Trendlines, Fibo Levels, etc. and supporting indicators include Stochastics and MACD, ADX, SAR, etc.

Risk and Management rules, Include Stop Loss, Maximum loss per trade. Max losses per day / Week / Month. The max loss per trade can be organised by Fixed Amount, Fixed Percentage of Account, Fixed Lot size. The best in My opinion is Fixed Percentage. because during a streak of losses the sizes shrink as the account shrinks, this allows the account to survive the longest. Stoploss is quite a personal idea. it needs to be not to close that you get stopped out all the time as natural retraction occurs. and not so far away that a large swing in the opposite direction is required to hit it. (or that it never gets hit), A good example is above previous Highs, or Support / Resistance points. Max risk per day / Week / Month is an arbitrary rule some traders use to preserve money, basically if you get stopped out Multiple times in a Day / Week / Month. (depending on your Timeframes). you stop trading until the next Day / Week / Month.

Profit rules, Until profit rules are in place, no system can be profitable. this includes Breakeven Rule, Trailing Stops and Profit Target. Break even rule is to move your SL upto the Same Price as your Entry. this can be when you reach a fixed amount of pips in profit. a percentage of your original risk, etc. Trailing stops are to secure profit in your trade that no matter what you won’t lose that profit behind the Stop. Popular methods are to Periodically take a Percentage of current profit. or move the Stop in Levels of original Risk. Finally the Take profit target. which would be the max profit to expect on the current trade. for example a historal point of support and resistance. or a fixed number or multiple of the risk level.

also reviewing the trade, this is where a diary is handy. noting what happened during trade (especially a losing one). this allows you to see issues that maybe keeping you from making more winners. (ie not sticking to your rules and emotional issues that make it harder for your consistancy).

Good luck in your trading.