30 Pips A day Keeps the your money at bay

[TMoneyBags]

Originally Posted by Ogna

thanks for the fast reply!

I finished studying the whole babypip school but I noticed that I dont like trading with indicators, your style is the way I would like to trade.

I went to the website and studied the paterns the only thing i dont understand is how to use the fibb with all these paterns?

Ok, I have made a video tutorial explaining how I identify the patterns with the Fibonacci tool.

Please note that this is the first time I've ever created a tutorial video so the quality may get "glitchy" at times

youtube.com/watch?v=wLTMxr8q4Rc

youtube.com/watch?v=56wBeasVKvk

(The sound on this one restores itself in 10 secs >.< sorry for the noob mistake)

As I stated before you will have to read the book "Trade What You See" by Larry Pesavento.

You can get it online @ amazon.com/Trade-What-You-See-Recognition/dp/047010676X

This book is key to understanding these patterns.

[Sweet Pip]

Wow...you're awesome TMB! Thanks for the videos, and I'll view them as soon as I can tonight!

So without that guidance, here's a bearish butterfly pattern I'm seeing in developement ...if price reaches D at 129.10, then we'll find out...lol

Update: Well it didn't quite reach 129.10...10 pips short as far as this chart is concerned, but down it went anyways. Don't suppose you would have traded it as you stated it had to be at most 5 pips away.

I've added a 2nd more recent chart which shows the pink trendline of the gartley's D leg and price is hovering around it.

I take it this is a good time to check for candlestick patterns. Seeing a couple of spinning tops/doji's... maybe an evening star developing? If it breaks it down, then basically it's a valid butterfly, if not then it's a failed butterfly (although coulda been a little profitable), and the gartley's still a possibility.

Am I reading this all right?...lol...I hate seeing things after they are all complete cause that's not what goes on while one is trading.

[Sweet Pip]

Price is almost at D for the butterfly, however when I zoomed out my chart, suddenly I saw a possible gartley. Now if it's a gartly, then we'd have to wait for price to reach 129.53. They both suggest price will go down, but from where..lol

I suppose if I read the book, watched your video etc, I'd know, but this is fun in the meantime...lol

[Ogna]

oh man i got to the computer 10 minutes late to catch that trade haha... looks good though

[TMoneyBags]

Originally Posted by Sweet Pip

Price is almost at D for the butterfly, however when I zoomed out my chart, suddenly I saw a possible gartley. Now if it's a gartly, then we'd have to wait for price to reach 129.53. They both suggest price will go down, but from where..lol

I suppose if I read the book, watched your video etc, I'd know, but this is fun in the meantime...lol

First of all X must always be at an extreme in price and the A must form at its next swing. To clarify, refer to the image bellow which shows the true pattern for where you are wanting to Define X from.

*Note Your X was good, the A was wrong*



The true convergence of this X and the ABCD occurs right at the .500 of XA and the 200% of CD. A beautiful upcoming pattern which I will set a Sell Entry at 130.201 of price. The Bounce that happened at 127% of the C-D Leg was a fake out on the Hourly chart. But on the 15 minute you came close to finding the pattern. Bellow you will see that price created a pattern representing the fake out of the hourly on the 15 minute which could have been traded with proper risk management.



As you can see on the 15 minute, the 127% of CD converges with the 1.618 of XA. The issue I have for this is that the 127% is above the Fib level making it more of a "dangerous" trade this is because of the fact that your failure point will be above the 127% close a decent amount of pips after the 1.618 XA fib level. All and all, the pattern worked and it seems to be heading towards its first target. In addition If you would have taken my advice and set the limit to the .382 of CD you would have limited out and avoided any future fake outs.

*Tip: The longer you are in a trade the higher your risk loss %. This is because price becomes comfortable with the levels it "continues to test" and can easily switch directions....

Edit: As you can see bellow a conservative limit, setting your target at the .382 of CD has been hit.

[TMoneyBags]

The EUR/JPY has a possible Gartley forming at 127.804 for a Bullish trade.



-Edit-
Looks like our trade is coming through In addition, notice how the 200% of CD converges with the possible hourly pattern that is developing. If this trade goes through and continues towards target 2, it can then me used as extra confirmation for our upcoming sell.

[TMoneyBags]

The trade missed the 30 pip limit by 3 pips (reached 27.1) and tanked down.

Understanding the failure:
The fact that I did not choose the most extreme point for my X on the 30 minute chart, did not allow me to see that there was a major .500 fib level with convergence at the 1.272 of the current CD leg. In addition If I would have placed a stop to break even when I had gone positive I would have avoided this -9.3 loss. But as to sticking with my trading plan, I will not close out a trade until it closes bellow the fib level where my entry has been placed (Although the use of break even points are highly recommended).



Although the initial D point failed, the correct D is still valid. As a result, Do not give up on a trade! Yes you lost some money or you broke even, but do not blind your self from the next opportunity which may be just 5-10 pips away.



*The Difference between a Novice and a Trader? A true trader learns to accept his losses.

[TMoneyBags]

Trade start at 127.57 Right on the Major .500 Fib level of XA our target is set to 127.97 for a 40 pip trade making up for our earlier loss and giving us the 30 pips for the day.

There is convergence at the .500 of XA and the 127% of CD

[TMoneyBags]

The new trade was the "true D" and has allowed us to recover today's loss and close with 30.7 pips for the Day. Pip gain from Prev. trade = 40 pips





Lesson for today:

1. Always do a full analysis of the market you are trading before entering a trade.

2. Accepting a loss is key to being profitable.

3. Never give up on a trade.

Realizing and remembering these 3 things is what allowed me to continue trading and realizing today's profit. Controlling your emotions and not giving up is key to becoming successful. If I would have gotten mad or cried about my loss, I would have never seen the potential gain that was available 30 minutes later. Always keep in mind that you do not control the market and it is YOU who decides when to enter and exit the trade. This means that YOU gave your self that loss or YOU gave your self that profit.

[Sweet Pip]

Nice trades there tmb...I was otherwise occupied tonight so didn't get to follow along.

Finally got to watch your videos...very helpful Let's get the links back which were removed due to your post count...you need 50 I believe to post links

YouTube - Identify Gartley 222 and Butterfly Patterns using Fibonacci 1 of 2.
YouTube - Identify Gartley 222 and Butterfly Patterns using Fibonacci 2 of 2.

I've been so used to mt4 charts that it feels weird working with Marketscope's charting, but I did change my fib levels, and now I can also put the xabcd labels on too...oooeee...lol.

Do you use the price alerts feature?

TTYL...I'm off to bed now.