Dead Pips

This thread is about Price Action and you wont find many indicators in this thread nor any set rules for a method (you have to find what works for your trading style). It might, however, give you a great starting point for a profitable method of your own design based on the material contained within.

Feel free to jump in with any questions.

There are far better threads out there that introduce similar material than this one. Do a search for Alternative Technical Templates and 3 Ducks and you will not be disappointed.

I recommend skipping to the last few pages for the latest material and then coming back to read the rest of the thread if you are interested afterwards.

I had to take the chance to be your first guest here!

Congratulations on your thread, may the pips be many and the account balance ever growing!

Very nice trade and well executed!

Looks good!
I love to hit a top or bottom like that always makes me feel real smart :D.

I appreciate people sharing real trades, even if I don’t trade the same way I learn new things that I might be able to apply to my trading. Thanks.

Two potential setups to watch for might be:

USDCAD monthly pin - could the USD be about to finally show some strength?

USDJPY - I’ve seen it discussed elsewhere too, could potentially be about to shift trend.

Nothing tradeable yet (well USDJPY if you’re brave enough to bet against the current trend), but maybe something to keep an eye on.

Yep, October’s bar.

Maybe nothing to trade per se, but it gives a hint as to future direction.

You’re quite right about the NFP train taking off without us, but there will be chances to enter on retraces and retests.

i’m currently in this trade took some at 81.65 & more last night @ 80.77, i see some S/R around the current price of 80.06. I may wait for the jpy news to come out this morning before reassessing if I should now close.

Also the chf/jpy looks very interesting on the daily’s, have you looked at that chart Matt?

Sigh still at work!! :frowning:

Anyway i closed part of my AUD/JPY & moved 50pips in profit for the rest of it so will let that ride for a while longer.

I also sold the CHF/JPF as looking back on the charts once it breaks past the 86.60 mark it usually has a good bearish run before heading back North. so far looking good as I type its just broke the 86.00 which will hopefully provide some resistance.

Hey I love this approach, I’ve been using a set stop loss which is a certain percentage of my account on every trade. this, more often than I like, results in me changing the stop to a more approprate location (beyond S&L lines) risking more than I should be.

Yes it definitely makes sense to set the position of your stop loss first, then work out how many pips that is and from that what position size you should use.

I believe Oanda are very good for doing micro/varied size lots which allows this kind of flexibility.

Hey I love this approach, I’ve been using a set stop loss which is a certain percentage of my account on every trade. this, more often than I like, results in me changing the stop to a more approprate location (beyond S&L lines) risking more than I should be.

I trade much shorter time frames what I do is start with a set stop and lot size that is a small less than 1% risk then if I need to move the stop I have some wiggle room and I can stay well within 2% risk per trade. The way I trade 2% risk per trade is high.

nice trades BTW :wink:

Nice one! I’d have taken profit too what with the time of year.

Yeah, this week has been frustratingly dead. Especially monday.

As much a fan of the J16 methodology as I am, I’ve struggled with the use of divergences, 150, 200 and 365 EMAs and fib retraces.

The conclusion I’ve reached is that the core concepts of bar formations at S/R areas is very sound. The above mentioned “confluences” I look at as superstition and accordingly they no longer have any place on my charts.

From what I’ve seen, they don’t increase, nor decrease the probability of a setup working out.

I think it was Thomas Bulkowski who said, after studying it, that price does not respect the 23, 38, 50 or 61 levels any more than other levels.

For me, bar formations and S/R / PPZs are my entire focus.

Merry Christmas Matt!

If I were to guess, the only indicators possessing any self-fulfilling power would be the 50, 100 and 200 MAs.

I’ve always been short on faith and long on evidence and so far, the concept of S/R is [B][I]the only[/I][/B] concept that has proven to me that it works.

I suspect that the myth of the self-fulfilling power of indicators such as MACD divergence or price reaching a certain fib level is widely exaggerated.

The experience of years of trading will show if I’m right or wrong but for now I’m finding that my trading isn’t any better off with these additions. Ergo - I don’t use them.

Quite interesting read. Reminds me slightly of the optimal F concept which apparently isn’t so great in reality.
It does require a very good knowledge of your win rate with attention given to the fact that sometimes there will be a long streak of losses.

While surfing around reading about optimal F, I found this site with some interesting links. Haven’t read them myself yet, but I think they may be worth the trouble:

Money Management | TurtleTrader

The Kelly criterion is a very interesting read: Kelly criterion - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Basically, according to this, if your R:R is 1:1 and your win rate 70%, you should bet 40% of your account on every trade. Whoa Nelly!
You’re definitely gonna want to start out with a winner or two…

Gonna do some more reading on the subject of position sizing and risk, I’m becoming more and more interested in that area.

Nah, it’s all about finding the personal comfort spot. Maybe James Bond would risk 40%, but not me. :slight_smile:

Our illustrious James had some good points, most likely “borrowed” from somewhere else :smiley: (wonder what he’s up to nowadays?)
Seriously though, several very good points on that list; 1-4, 12, 13, 17-19, 40 and 45 were points I especially liked.

Matt or Magnus i was wondering what your guys opinion is on a pin forming on the GBP/USD 4 hour chart.To me this looks like a good position to enter for a reversal as i type this it is about 40 minutes to the close of the candle.(11.20am pacifac time )If you guys are out and about for the holiadays please disregard.:slight_smile: