04-11-2012, 02:27 AM
London Open Kill Zone
Cable entered the OTE Sell Zone based on the Fib from yesterday's high to yesterday's low, Fiber is a few pips away from it.
04-11-2012, 04:12 AM
Does ICT have a list of currency pairs to trade?
04-11-2012, 06:15 AM
From what I've seen in the vids so far it's almost all EUR/USD and GBP/USD. I've seen some reference to EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY as well. Some of the folks on here are applying the tools to aussie as well, I believe.
04-11-2012, 07:38 AM
Market seems to be moving sideways with most of the majors, can anyone else see any good ideas for the daily charts at the moment.
04-11-2012, 08:02 AM
Took a -2% loss on the cable today during London Open on the following trade:
- Shorted at 1.5889
- LO kill zone
- 1hr OTE
- Sell Zone
- S/R Level
- 4hr market flow bearish
04-11-2012, 08:48 AM
The Treasury Market & FX
Is anyone else as confused as I am with ICT's link to the article on Treasuries and FX? Here is the screenshot from ICT's original teachings:
Pretty simple, right? A failure to move lower on one of the yields equates to dollar bullishness. Investors chase higher yields and money flows into the dollar.
But then this:
If an investor is BUYING treasuries, then they need dollars in order to do so, and this equates to 'massive strength in the USD'.
My problem is this: Bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship. If you buy bonds, then yields decline. If you sell bonds, then yields increase.
In my mind these two screenshots present contradictory information. ICT says buy the dollar when yields start to increase, and the article is saying buy the dollar when the bond price increases (the yields decrease).
If anyone has any ideas on this, or can direct me to some posts documenting 'Treasury trades' with ICT analysis, then I would be grateful. I recall documenting a Euro short back in about November of last year where one of the stock indexes failed to go higher on the close, and the NY open on the following day saw the sell-off. At that time the 10 year treasury price (not yield) shot higher off an OTE in intraday trading (forexpros charts), which suggests dollar strength follows bond price not yields.
04-11-2012, 09:29 AM
Took the same trade only at 1.59 level. Still got stopped out. However, as a consolation snagged 30 pips from Fiber. Still down for the day.
Originally Posted by StephA
04-11-2012, 10:09 AM
I noticed that too Ali, I figured maybe I was reading something wrong in that article or misunderstood it, but I guess I wasn't alone! I'm still sticking with what i have learned from the original videos
Originally Posted by Alishijo
04-11-2012, 10:13 AM
count me in on the down day.. (down week to be exact)
tried my luck on the fiber (short) entered a bit premature at 1.3112
entered because: LO Killzone, OTE, USDX div, SMT div, H1 stochastic div, pivot sell zone, at SR, stopps to be gunned down south..(fiber, as a related pair seemed similar and USDX didn't complain about my idea to enter short)
looked like pretty decent amount of confluences to me
obviously got stopped out..
SOMETIMES YOU WIN, AND SOMETIMES YOU LEARN.
luckily, risk management is still proving its value once again..
since I have a longer term bullish bias (to be honest, that sheet with the seasonal tendencies I recently digged out of my notes, might have "biased my bias")
anyway since that short was against my bias, I decided to enter on minimized risk... PLUS after the market makers took forever to slam price down - and since I believed it to be a Judas, I got a bit skeptical and tightened my SL going towards the 10 'o clock candle..
result: after a loss yesterday and another one today I am down 0.96% so no trouble sleeping there.. oh yes and its demo by the way
(since I am loosing quite often I really take risk management to heart! hahaha)
I'll stay flat at least until tomorrows LO or longer..to clear my mind
but there is something I'd like to ask the more experienced traders, or if the chief rocker himself (ICT) is watching.. you're also very welcome to answer of course:
we all know that SR levels are "stronger" the higher the time frame they derive from - a daily SR has a higher likely hood to hold up than a 15 minute SR..
and I guess the same holds true with divergences? is a H4 divergence (SMT, USDX or Stochastic) "stronger" than one on the 15 minutes chart? I'd sure believe so..
now what really interests me:
what signal is stronger: a SMT divergence, a USDX divergence or a stochastic divergence, lets assume they are all on the same timeframes..?
these past days I started paying attention to just that.. I believe now that a stochastic divergence seems to be the weakest signal of those 3, while USDX and SMT both seem quite strong (although today that didn't help)
I tend to believe that SMT is the strongest divergence of the 3..
any thoughts? advice? corrections?
not sure if this has been discussed before and I apologize if it has.
anyways.. lets see what the rest of the trading week has for us..
04-11-2012, 10:47 AM
I agree stoch is the weakest of the 3. Also because it's an oscillator, while the smt and usdx divergences are foot-prints of the smart money.
Originally Posted by FredFresh
I woulnd't think in terms of "which one si the strongest" but in terms of "what signals are overlapping"
example: if there is a ote... next to a key S/R... confirmed by stoch divergence... for me it's a go
ote alone is not a go
stoch alone is not a go
Also looking for double stoch divergences works pretty well with me
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