EUR/USD Technical Analysis from a Newbie (need to be confirmed)

THis pair is hysterical,

more than a year and a half in congestion… and yet it is the most ‘popular’ pair…

I must assume that it great for range-play or scalping, because there is certainly

no directional bias to be had in purely trending terms (over the medium term).

Am I missing something?

Well, this pairs is very liquid and many traders are not looking for a 1000 pips in a single trade. You PipMeHappy assume very well , that traders are using this pair for scalping and range trading .

EUR/USD is moving notably lower, marking fresh new low at $1.1245.

Cool cool

It is just that rarely do we see members on this thread posting actual trading targets or results, so it all seems a bit pointless…

Yesterday the EURUSD fell with a wide range and closed near the low of the day, in addition managed to close below the previous day low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.

The pair closed below the 10-day moving average that should act now as a dynamic resistance. The currency pair continues to trade well above the 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.

The key levels to watch are: a daily resistance at 1.1460, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1347 (resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.1279 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1237, and the 200-day moving average at 1.1160 (support).

The euro was down against the US Dollar on Wednesday. By the end of the trading session EUR/USD was traded at 1.1264, shedding 0.37%. I believe that the support is now located at the level of 1.1245, the low of yesterday’s trading, and resistance is likely to be at 1.1363 - Friday’s high.

The single currency marked second consecutive decline against the US dollar on Wednesday. The pair tested the support at 1.1239 and if bearish sentiment continue, it will be broken. The session started at 1.1304 and the euro lost 42 pips. Next support is located at 1.1197. Resistance is seen at 1.1382 and 1.1427.

Key levels to watch for:
Support: 1.1239; 1.1197;
Resistance: 1.1382; 1.1427.

The single currency marked second consecutive decline against the US dollar on Wednesday. The pair tested the support at 1.1239 and if bearish sentiment continue, it will be broken. The session started at 1.1304 and the euro lost 42 pips. Next support is located at 1.1197. Resistance is seen at 1.1382 and 1.1427.

Yesterday the EURUSD rose with a narrow range and closed near the high of the day, in addition managed to close within the previous day range, which suggests being slightly on the bullish side of neutral.

The pair is trading below the 10-day moving average that is acting as a dynamic resistance and is trading well above the 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.

The key levels to watch are: a daily resistance at 1.1460, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1347 (resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.1291 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1237, and the 200-day moving average at 1.1163 (support).

On Thursday session the euro broke the negative momentum from the last two sessions and recovered some of its losses against the US dollar. If the upward direction continue,the resistance at 1.1382 will be broken soon. Support is seen at 1.1239 and 1.1197.

The euro rose against the dollar on Friday. By the end of the trading session EUR/USD was traded at 1.1294, gaining 0.11%.
I believe that the support is now located at the level of 1.1242, Wednesday’s low and resistance is likely to be at the level of 1.1357 - a maximum of Tuesday.

There’s a shooting star candlestick below the resistance at 1.1300, EUR/USD will likely start moving to the downside towards the support at 1.1240 again.

Looking at the hourly at the moment there has just been constant little candlesticks in a bullish move but which at the moment doesn’t give me confidence to buy as a bullish move… fundamentally and technically this pair may become a bit of a bearish move soon… Keep a close eye and watch for those signals!


A small gap has almost recovered, but the risk remains on the downside, immediate support level can be found at 1.1160/70 zone.

EUR/USD dropped significantly after Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday and the move to the downside will likely continue. A breakout below 1.1175 will probably lead to a further drop towards 1.1050.

I like the way it says “need to be confirmed” in the title-line of this thread: nobody can accuse it of misrepresentation, that way …

Hey Lexys How r u doing. I’m would like to know more about your trading method. (not to argue) just curious.

Not really “my method”: I don’t do anything clever - it’s only semi-discretionary applications of what I’ve learned from the “price action classics” (Joe Ross, Al Brooks, Bob Volman, etc. … authors whose work I’ve studied and tested and experimented with [I]really[/I] carefully and thoroughly).

I trade only futures (so that I can use constant-volume bars), and typically take something like 6-7 trades per day, on average; they can be open anywhere from 5 or 10 minutes to 5 or 6 hours, but the average is much nearer the lower of those figures. A 6-hour trade is really exceptional for me and will arise only on a “clear, big-trend day”.

I never hold a position overnight.

I typically do nearly 90% of my week’s trading between Tuesday lunchtime and Thursday night.

I trade multiple lots/contracts and scale in and out of positions so that I can minimise risk. I add only to winning positions, never to losers. When I leave a trade “running” for much longer than normal, adjusting its stop-loss manually as it goes, that’s usually about the last third of a trade of which I’ve already closed about the first two thirds to avoid loss and lock in some amount of profit.

I trade quite a lot of S/R breakouts (often “second breaks”) and various ways (based mostly on bar patterns) of “buying the dips in an uptrend and selling the peaks in a downtrend”, in other words entering after minor retracements have been shown to be “only” minor retracements rather than changes in trend-direction. Many of these things have quite a wide range of fancy names (like “Ross hooks” and “Slaughterbeck entries” and so on, both of which are specific bar-patterns, and both of which work well for me, with a good edge) names which they’ve kind of acquired, over the generations, as price action writers have described them somewhat differently, perhaps all blowing their own trumpets a bit at the same time, but they all boil down to the same basic principles, really. I don’t actually do anything complicated at all: my focus is just on doing relatively uncomplicated things very well and very consistently, and managing each trade carefully and attentively so as to try to minimise losses. I look at everything I do in terms of risk management rather than in terms of profit maximisation.

I don’t really use indicators (and definitely not at all for opening or closing trades), but [I][U]all[/U][/I] my trading is TA-based.

I don’t really understand fundamentals - economics isn’t my subject at all. :8:

I have losers, too! Including sometimes losing days. (But no losing [I]month[/I] for over 3 years, now, thankfully).

I did exactly the same things before switching to futures, to be honest: I traded from M5/M10 spot forex charts in the same ways - it’s just that the results have improved in consistency a bit since using constant-volume bars, and it makes it much easier for me, mostly because all my bar patterns themselves arise out of volumes traded, rather than having to worry about what time of day it is, whether there’s any real volume in the markets, and so on, all the time. So, for example, on the e-mini Nasdaq (which I trade quite a lot), the bars on my charts work out at around 4 minutes each, give or take, for the first couple of hours of daily Nasdaq trading, whereas later in the day they’ll take around 9-10 minutes each, or even longer (index futures are open nearly 24 hours a day, but their underlying instruments aren’t at all. I trade them [I]almost[/I] only during the RTH of their underlying, though - albeit that this might be “too conservative” of me. I think I’m probably [I]very[/I] risk-averse, by “general independent-trader standards”.)

I like your approach for trading, simple and to the point and the switch to futures is great too . I have a friend that he does the e- mini too.