The current week has been characterized by the monetary policy meeting held in New Zealand with the increase (expected) of the interest rates to 3.50%. However, unlike last month, we did not see a strong NZD purchase but exactly the opposite movement due to the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to momentarily interrupt this restrictive phase.
The focus of the next economic calendar will be on United States with the FOMC’s meeting and the rate decision next Wednesday and the usual release of the Non Farm Payrolls next August the 1st.
I leave you with my weekly video!
[video=youtube_share;C5CKuPl6Q68]http://youtu.be/C5CKuPl6Q68[/video]
Have a nice week-end.
Maurizio Orsini
Silver, daily Price Action chart.
Silver: the situation of the precious metals is certainly not the easy to analyze, considering the confused phase we had in recent weeks, despite this the daily chart of silver seems to be clearer than the gold one and it could show interesting trading opportunities. After the sharp rise of June, with a maximum at $21,50, there was a new down move generating the break-out of the moving average and of the support zone $20,50. The silver is currently within this very short term bearish trend and we might look for short trading signals in the level just mentioned (which is now a resistance) to evaluate a sale entry with a target in area $19. With a “prudent” strategy we can also wait for the break-out of area $20,20 that would represents the violation of the EMA21 in the weekly time frame.
Maurizio Orsini
Eur-Cad, daily Price Action chart.
Eur-Cad: after the downward movement, evident in the daily chart, the pair is not confirming the dynamic resistance area 1,4630 (bearish trendline) and appears to be ready to move up. The price drew a pattern of double inside candle (not perfect but valid) whose violation could push Eur-Cad up to the next key level 1,4790 and possibly up to 1,49; this potential upward move might be “confirmed” by the monthly time frame above the moving average with a more bullish outlook (the weekly t.f. is still moving below the EMA21 and this would suggest prudence, especially in area 1,48) .
Anyway, the short-term is bullish and so we could evaluate the current trading signal of inside candle to open a long position.
Maurizio Orsini
The current week has been characterized by four monetary policy meetings with a general confirmation of the economic measures. Australia’s central bank has confirmed the interest rate at 2.50%, and its view is to maintain this level for a long period of time in order to support the recovery avoiding the appreciation of the domestic currency. Also the Bank of England and the ECB, as expected, did not change their rates (0.50% and 0.15%), and decided to go on with the current monetary guidance. The last meeting of the week took place a few hour ago in Japan without any change by Governor Kuroda.
I prepared my usual weekly video to show you the trading opportunities for the next days.
[video=youtube_share;OCUzVKsdVAM]http://youtu.be/OCUzVKsdVAM[/video]
Have a nice week-end.
Maurizio Orsini
Usd-Cad, daily Price Action chart.
Usd-Cad: looking at the weekly chart we can see as the downward trend that has characterized the Loonie between late March and late June could be considered as a technical correction of the previous long-term uptrend (break-out of the bearish trendline and my three time frames to the upside!). If that was true, we could be facing a possible resumption of the upward movement that would make me prefer a more bullish operating strategy. The most interesting price level to find long trading signals could be 1.0940 (or even better 1,09) with a potential first target at 1.1040 and a second one at 1.1240.
Maurizio Orsini
The current week is showing expecially medium importance market movers with less volatility than the previous week.
Among the most significant data, we can certainly remember the labor market news in the UK which were below the forecast generating a sale pressure in the pound.
The weekly video is exceptionally realized on Thursday due to the Day of the Assumption of the Virgin Mary (tomorrow, holiday).
[video=youtube_share;KlQMBL7h1IY]http://youtu.be/KlQMBL7h1IY[/video]
Have a nice day!
Maurizio Orsini
Aud-Nzd, daily Price Action chart.
Aud-Nzd: the chart is showing a clear medium/long term laterality with the pair of Oceania moving, since the end of last year, within a range of about 500 pips. After reaching the 2014 top level 1,1030, Aud-Nzd depreciated considerably due to the buying wave of NZD (following the rate hike by the RBNZ) and then completely recovered arriving two times, between late July and early August, to the previous highs. We are currently in a very short term sideways range with the time frame H4, daily and weekly that are moving upward, so it could be very interesting to find a long trading signal in the resistance 1,1030 to evaluate a purchase. In this way, and after three attempts, it would also be possible to see a bullish break-out with the price that might reach the next key level in area 1,12; the same level would be particularly relevant because right in that zone of the chart, in the monthly time frame, the moving average would be arriving as a dynamic resistance.
Obviously the presence of a clear bearish price action signal in the resistance close to the current price would lead us to modify the operative strategy evaluating short entries for a potential return of Aud-Nzd to the 1,09 support level.
Maurizio Orsini
Nasdaq 100, daily Price Action chart.
Nasdaq 100: the American stock indices continue to rise and the Nasdaq 100 appears to be more attractive to investors’ long positions. As for the S&P and the Dow Jones we saw a momentary downward trend, in late July, but within a short period laterality that soon changed into a bullish move with seven consecutive bullish candles. During this week the cfd of the Nasdaq index just broke the historic top level at 3900 points and shows enough strength to reach the next level in the key area 4100. A possible strategy to enter this uptrend would be to find a long trading signal in the support zone 3990, after a technical correction that might retest the broken resistance.
Maurizio Orsini
The current week showed no monetary policy meeting but the publication of two Minutes in Great Britain and the United States: in the first case we had, after three years, two members of the Bank of England voting for a rate hike; in the second case the Federal Reserve emphasized the improvement in the labor market, but not so strong to change the current approach to the interest rates.
Next week too will be characterized by “normal” market movers in particular concerning the German and Euro labor market, along with the inflation in the Euro zone.
Here is my usual weekly video!
[video=youtube_share;sx4-YoL9D0Y]http://youtu.be/sx4-YoL9D0Y[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
Gbp-Usd, daily Price Action chart.
Gbp-Usd: the strong upward movement that had characterized the Cable since July 2013 has been interrupted in June’s top level 1,7160. The US dollar, in a sharp appreciation, generated a downward pressure that firstly caused the break-out of the support 1,6970 and the moving average 21 in the daily chart and secondly the violation of the important weekly support zone 1,6750 and the EMA21 in the same time frame. After this break-out, and in presence of a clear trading signal, I opened a short position in Gbp-Usd that could have a target in the next support zone 1,65, which also represents an important level in the weekly time frame and even in the monthly (with the average getting closer).
So we can look for a long signal in this support (but carefully because it would be a countertrend!) or even better we might evaluate a new break-out for a bearish continuation towards the key level 1,63 (I also might decide to move my take profit down trying to follow the price as long as possible).
Maurizio Orsini
Eur-Cad, daily Price Action chart.
Eur-Cad: the phase of depreciation of the euro is very clear and it could increase further if, as many believe, Mr.Mario Draghi will finally adopt the “unconventional” measures to support price stability, as he already said many times. This monetary policy would probably lead to a continuation of the bearish move for many currency pairs and between them we can highlight Eur-Cad. We had a very nice short movement that characterized this pair from mid-March, (after the maximum of nearly five years in 1,5580), with the same pair breaking down the EMA21 and moving below it both in the daily as in the weekly time frame. The downward trend is very clear, although in the short term Eur-Cad is going through a phase of laterality that led to three times the support level 1,4430. Yesterday Eur-Cad drew a clear short trading signal in this area and, at the present time, it’s breaking this level with the possibility to continue the downward trend to the next major area of weekly support at 1,41.
Maurizio Orsini
The meeting of last Friday in Jackson Hole showed, after the speeches of the major central banks’ chairmen, the outlook of an increase in interest rates in the United States (mid 2015?) and an exactly contrary outlook for the European Central Bank. As a matter of fact Mr.Mario Draghi has confirmed the availability to take “unconventional” measures to face the deflation and such measures could be taken even in the next monetary meeting, also due to the slowdown of Germany (decline in GDP, IFO index and consumer confidence).
From the United States we received very important market movers who were almost all better than expected: PMI services, gross domestic product, jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence, personal consumption).
Let’s see together my trades at market along with some valid trading opportunities for the next few days!
[video=youtube_share;pJtdBHTGu2E]http://youtu.be/pJtdBHTGu2E[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
Usd-Chf, daily Price Action chart.
Usd-Chf: as the correlated Eur-Usd closed the bearish gap but failed in returning above 1,3220 area, in the same way Usd-Chf closed the bullish gap of last week without reaching, at the present time, the area 0,91. The three time periods that I usually work with show a bullish outlook, above the moving average 21, and highlight a possible continuation of the upward trend both in relation to macroeconomic reasons (excellent American data and potential start of ECB’s quantitative easing) and in relation to the technical reasons mentioned above as to the monthly chart showing a candle (in August) with a false breakout of the moving average and movement to the upside. Those who still have no long positions can evaluate an entry if the bullish break-out of the very short term laterality will be confirmed or waiting for a new correction to the downside to buy at a better price, always with a first target at 0,9230 and then on 0,9450 area.
Maurizio Orsini
Eur-Usd, daily Price Action chart.
Eur-Usd: the daily chart of the main Forex pair shows a very clear downtrend “closed” within a bearish channel that has pushed down the Eur-Usd from the 2-year top of last May 1,40 to the current support level 1,3120 (floor of the last 12 months). The price is moving below the moving average both in the daily and weekly time frame and, after having closed the gap of last week, is now accumulating above the just mentioned support. In recent days, the euro appears in small recovery although it is less evident due to the stronger US dollar. Undoubtedly the most advisable strategy is to enter this downtrend looking for a short trading signal possibly in the level 1,32 although we could also evaluate a break-out of the zone 1,31.
Tomorrow we will have the very important monetary meeting of the ECB and the potential new accommodative measures by Mario Draghi that could facilitate the depreciation of the euro and therefore a more rapid fall of the Eur-Usd firstly to the 1,30 level and then to the area of weekly support 1,2750.
Maurizio Orsini
As always, the first week of the month has been characterized by important market movers that generated high volatility in the market, among them we can remember four monetary policy meetings and the US labor market monthly data.
In Australia we had the confirmation of the interest rates at 2.50% as well as in Canada where Governor Stephen Poloz kept the rates unchanged at 1%. In the UK too the monetary guidance has been confirmed in terms of monthly asset purchase and interest rate at 0.50%; we will see in a couple of weeks (with the Minute) which have been the specific positions of the members of the BoE’s board.
Yesterday there was a great expectation for the ECB meeting, in order to see new accommodative measures and, as a matter of fact, Mario Draghi decided for a new rate cut by 10 basis points to 0.05% (historic low) and the ABS purchase plan from next October.
I prepared the usual weekly video with some trading opportunities for the next days and the my trades of this week.
[video=youtube_share;aohZoBsj3Ks]http://youtu.be/aohZoBsj3Ks[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
Aud-Yen, Price Action daily chart.
Aud-Yen: After the break-out of the medium term laterality’s top level at 96,40 (12-month maximum) the pair continued the upward movement, very clear and precise, up to the top area of May 2013 at 98,70. Aud-Yen is currently in a phase of technical correction that could give us the opportunity to enter the trend at a better price. Let’s look for a long trading signal in the intermediate support 97,20 (the EMA21 is arriving as a dynamic support in the daily time frame) or in the area of the former resistance 96,40 in case of a new test of the previous laterality (this latter solution would be more interesting in a"weekly" point of view).
Maurizio Orsini
Another week is ending with a relatively quiet economic calendar that showed only one monetary policy meeting and many medium importance data. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand confirmed its guidance keeping its rates unchanged at 3.50%. We had a positive situation in the Australian labor market, with a surprise decline in unemployment; not so positive the situation of the US jobless claims, to the upside this week. There are still tension on the pound because of the upcoming referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom.
For the next week we can emphasize the monetary meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Swiss central bank (which may even lower its rates into negative as a “response” to the accommodative policy of Mario Draghi).
Here you have my usual weekly video!
[video=youtube_share;zUyyJl_F8JQ]http://youtu.be/zUyyJl_F8JQ[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
Among all the news and market movers we received this week we can especially highlight: the referendum in Scotland, the Fed’s meeting, the beginning of the ECB’s TLTRO.
Yesterday we had the Scottish referendum with the final decision to remain in the United Kingdom (so everything unchanged) with great benefit to the pound and the British government.
In the United States we saw, at conclusion of the Fed’s, a further cut in the asset purchase plan as the confirmation of the rates at 0.25% which will remain stable for a "considerable period time ".
In the euro area Mr.Mario Draghi began the first of 11 refinancing operations to 255 European banks that, supposedly, should direct these funds to the private sector (families and firms), let’s see in the next months which will be the real effects in the economy.
Here you have my usual weekly video!
[video=youtube_share;A02ohjDu3DQ]http://youtu.be/A02ohjDu3DQ[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
Aud-Nzd, Price Action daily chart.
Aud-Nzd: The upward rise of the Australian dollar had a relatively short duration! After the start of the uptrend in mid-July, the violation of important weekly laterality (1,1030) and the achievement of the 12-month high 1,13 area it started a movement that could appear only a technical correction but on the contrary generated a new change in the short term trend. Due to the meeting of the Bank of New Zealand (but also to the period of great weakness of the Australian currency) the pair of Oceania continued its downward movement breaking back the moving average 21 and, especially, confirming below the key level 1,1030 in the last weekly close. Although the only doubt might come from the weekly chart (still slightly bullish) the outlook in the short term but also in the long term (looking at the monthly time frame with a short flag in formation) seem much more bearish and so I would like to see on the level mentioned above, after a technical retracement, a short trading signal to enter the downward trend with a first target in the support area 1,09.
Maurizio Orsini
Another week is over and it was basically quiet with an economic calendar that showed a not so positive German IFO index and a better than expected US jobless claims (emphasizing a better position in the labor market).
We saw a sharp fall of the New Zealand dollar, after the declaration of the RBNZ’s governor concerning the unjustified and unsustainable strength of the domestic currency and the need for its depreciation.
Next week will be particularly interesting because we will have the monetary meeting of the ECB (exceptionally in Naples - Italy) and the US Non Farm Payrolls.
[video=youtube_share;yl4cd8oEN_E]http://youtu.be/yl4cd8oEN_E[/video]
Have a nice week-end!
Maurizio Orsini
