On Friday we will get the much anticipated NFP report and I think it will provide another disappointment just as the previous one did. I urge you not to be fooled like most idiots by the headline number which I think will come in between 120K and 150K (I know it is a bit of a range, but hey I don’t trade economic news releases anyway) which is a terrible read given that roughly 150K brand new job seekers are created. Watch out for downward revisions for the previous two months.
The unemployment rate could tick down one basis point, remain the same or tick up one basis point which really does not matter as the US labor market is depresses and over 50% of all jobs created are low quality jobs, low paying jobs or temporary jobs which do nothing for the economy. Make sure you understand an economic report and how to dig deeper so you really get the story it is telling you.
Am a big fan of NFP, but only for the first 10 minutes after 8:30am. The markets reacts right until traders begin exiting their orders and counter trade are triggered. The predicted 162K sound quite realistic considering the difference last month’s numbers. Anyway, according to my experience, its best to leave this to the robots and keep leverage low.
Every jobs report this year if I remember correct has been terrible. As I mentioned before, don’t be fooled by the headline and dig into the report so you know what the numbers are telling you. The long-term unemployed and underemployed are not really moving in the right direction, last month hourly earnings declined ( or was it the previous month? does not really matter). So what if the number says 200K if most of those are not net positive for the economy?