An Interesting Experiment I wanna make

For the moment I am out of FX. I am doing great and hence I don’t wanna abuse from my good fortune. But my hands are itching to get into action and at the same time most people is asking me to explain my method. Something not easy to do. So if you wanna learn to trade like it was a chess or Go game this is what you have to do:

Post here whatever fundamental (economic calendar, news, central banks, whatever) you can find, no matter if it is contradictory to another info, that is the real fun, no matter if it’s an useless report, cuz I make money on those useless reports that nobody does look at. So with all that info I will explain you how do I work.

Must I warn you, you must not take my setups as signal service because most conclusions will be wrong.

Ok - I suspect that usd will slowly fall in value over the next months, taper will not happen until maybe the spring.

I also have believed for some time that the Aud is undervalued, I believe that China will prosper in the next year - it’s copper imports are at an all time high, it’s q numbers will be up tomorrow morning,

I sense that the Uk is on an upward path, though may be slightly held back by the EZ being sluggish.

So to take advantage of all that I opinion that aud/usd will rise back to 1.0100 by the spring, if not earlier.

Cable will look for 1.800 in the same time frame.

Fibre will meander about all over the place and continue to be the most difficult cross to master for many of us - well especially me that is.

Eur/gbp is taking a hard look at 82.00 but has not really made up it’s mind.

So what to do?

Next Wednesday (after NFP release Tue), before London opening, I will look at the aud/usd Asian Session, I will take it’s mid level, add 4 pips and 2 pips for spread and set a buy order at that price :slight_smile:

Based Solely in what you have typed and not taking nothing on more data I would wait until Yuan slows down and short the currency. Is the most unlikely to happen and if it does it will be a big boom!!!

I have a feeling you are just going to take the opposite of all the predictions that will get.

So I’ll make it easy for you. If you think the majority of economists forecasts are wrong then here are the economists and “experts” forecasts.

The eurusd for example is supposed to be at 1.3550 1 week from now… 1.3460 a month from now… And 1.3250 a quarter from now.

So using your logic it should be 1.3750 a week from now… 1.3850 a month from now… And 1.400 a quarter from now :slight_smile:

Yes and no. It is sort of an art wich data take and wich one just to ignore. If I do the opposit on each analisys I will lose money too. So There is not written rule on that too.

China delivered, come on you Aussies (next wed that is)

Now supposing you looked at aud/usd chart now , if you took last night’s Asian session high and low, found it’s mid point which sits at 9620.

Now supposing you were kinda silly and went and added 4 pips plus 2 pips for the spread and set a buy order at 9626 just before London Opening (i.e. just after my post this morning).

Hmmm entry would be one hour later - just at LO - low of candle …9625.

TA combined with Fundies - and not a pinbar, hammer, shooting star, spinning top and all that other silly stuff in sight - not even our old friend, the unmentionable P.A.

I follow price movement but not the number itself, so I don’t know. The only relevant info you provided is the copper imports by china. I say relevant because it is unusual to catch that info and copper is extremly expensive and more useful than gold. And somehow most traders might not be aware of it. And you know what? I change my mind, forget about Yuan for the moment, too much publicity on it these days.

AUD, have not idea, yet.

Copper is seeing a huge supply glut coming in the next few months… The lag between the last few years high demand and new mines bringing more supply to the market is being closed at a time when copper demand is tapering somewhat. Basically we are going from one extreme to the other as too many mines were opened and now there will be too much copper swamping the market for prices to sustain the current level. Prices will not be able to make much headway any time soon.

Chinas rebar production is on the uptick however and this helps out Aussies iron ore exports. Since these make up a much larger portion of overall exports, I would say this would have a bigger impact on the Aussie then copper.

So, I see too much publicity on copper. I would take a look at CHF. If copper rises swissy might go down. Switzerland is one of the biggest supplier of electrical equipment, ABB is their biggest firm. CHF like JPY i consider “cheap” currencies cuz their banks try to devaluate their assests all costs. So with cheap currency will be more expensive to buy copper. But don’t take the trade right now. Wait until the swiss indicators like GDP shows green like everybody says weeeeee haaaaaaa!!! let’s buy swissy…!!! then wait the precise moment to short because they might be ignoring this fact and there is an unlikely chance that copper issues pull the price down.

[QUOTE=“Mr Gone;552859”]

So, I see too much publicity on copper. I would take a look at CHF. If copper rises swissy might go down. Switzerland is one of the biggest supplier of electrical equipment, ABB is their biggest firm. CHF like JPY i consider “cheap” currencies cuz their banks try to devaluate their assests all costs. So with cheap currency will be more expensive to buy copper. But don’t take the trade right now. Wait until the swiss indicators like GDP shows green like everybody says weeeeee haaaaaaa!!! let’s buy swissy…!!! then wait the precise moment to short because they might be ignoring this fact and there is an unlikely chance that copper issues pull the price down.[/QUOTE]

The SNB mucks with their currency value too much. Haven’t looked at that currency since 2011.

yeah but cheap only care about exports but they forget about the manufacturers who need to buy cheap material outside.

For those lurking:

From FT on August 15 this year.

Quote:
One of the most closely watched indicators of the strength of the Chinese copper market has risen to the highest level on record, in a further sign that the country’s industrial economy is outperforming gloomy expectations. Chinese copper premiums – that is, the cost of physical copper over and above the benchmark futures prices – have more than tripled since the start of the year to a high of more than $200 a tonne, traders said.
EndQuote

Only now have the ‘gloomy expectations’ started to recede.

Also for lurkers - what’s so special about copper? … just google Dr Copper.

Another reason to go against yuan. Everybody knows that it is doing very well. But when prices goes to high there will be no buyer left.

[QUOTE=“peterma;552879”]For those lurking:

From FT on August 15 this year.

Quote:
One of the most closely watched indicators of the strength of the Chinese copper market has risen to the highest level on record, in a further sign that the country’s industrial economy is outperforming gloomy expectations. Chinese copper premiums – that is, the cost of physical copper over and above the benchmark futures prices – have more than tripled since the start of the year to a high of more than $200 a tonne, traders said.
EndQuote

Only now have the ‘gloomy expectations’ started to recede.

Also for lurkers - what’s so special about copper? … just google Dr Copper.[/QUOTE]

Also this…

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-13/copper-supply-glut-seen-tripling-as-prices-sink-10-commodities.html

Thks Pizza for the link, interesting article, I enjoy that Larkin guy’s input.

It was Vale’s ceo that first talked up the construction sector in China this year when many were saying China were in trouble.

It’ll be interesting to watch the Aussie in the months ahead, the new govt there still has to get it’s teeth into their economy.

Thks Pizza for the link, interesting article, I enjoy that Larkin guy’s input.

It was Vale’s ceo that first talked up the construction sector in China this year when many were saying China were in trouble.

It’ll be interesting to watch the Aussie in the months ahead, the new govt there still has to get it’s teeth into their economy.

Take my advice, ignore politics especially if the prime minister is abducted by a pink UFO.

[QUOTE=“Mr Gone;552928”]

Take my advice, ignore politics especially if the prime minister is abducted by a pink UFO.[/QUOTE]

I would have missed out on making 10% account profit this week if I ignored politics.

The US debt ceiling was the main driver of the markets this week. Easy money if you were following it. The usdjpy was moving up and down to every update out of congress.

I try to avoid what attacts too much atention. Price movements are driven by emotions. I understand your point, it is easily predictable if Obama says "republicans are a bunch of… " that will break out a lot of feelings that moves prices to certain direction. The problem is that is easily predictable for everyone and someone has to lose. My SL is tight and I cannot afford a widden spread.