NZD/JPY: cycles, channels, Fibonacci levels, and longer-term outlook (VIDEO)

Hello traders,

please take a look at [B]my new video for NZD/JPY technical analysis[/B]

for the period 2001-2013, with an outlook on trading set-ups for

the longer term:

NZD/JPY: cycles, trends, and long-term outlook. - YouTube

It is a longer video (just over half an hour), but there was a lot to cover!

Feel free to leave feedback here or on YouTube, and/or ‘like’ it, and, most importantly,

to add your own analysis of this pair within this thread, in response to my video.

Happy trading.

Hello traders!

Following my video on 9th Dec., I am posting an update on this currency pair:

  1. in the month of December, the pair put in a bullish candle (on the monthly chart), followed by a bearish candle this month;
  2. however, the month is not over yet, and there is the RBNZ rate decision next week.

As you can see in the posted image, the 1,000+ pips projected channel (between the red and green lines) is holding, so we may now have a bounce back to its floor (and/or) beyond; also the Fibonacci 0.76 retracement of the 2007high-to-2009low is being tested for the second time, as per rising trend.

However, the rate-hike for the RBNZ is yet to be timed and the market has been slow at picking up the currency’s potential, so the rate decision this Wednesday is particularly important for signals; more specifically, however, market fear has been sweeping Yen crosses in the past trading week, with deleveraging hitting hard at currency pairs like NZD/JPY, which late last week dropped about 3% (=300 pips).

We will be watching this pair for further developments, although in the long term we project a continuation of the Fib. retracement of the 2007 high to the 100 level. A continuation to the downside would see the 0.61 retracement as the next barrier, around 77.83.

Happy trading.