When December’s non-farm payroll report was released in the US most blamed the disappointment on bad weather which is not an uncommon theme. We all know about the bad weather the US faced in January so will bad weather be blamed again?
I think it should not matter as in the end real people are unemployed and it will impact the broader economy and therefore forex markets as well.
Hello and what a topical thread this is…
I would like to add, if I may, that the longer-term view is much more concerned with the impact on agriculture
(in the developed and developing economies), so that what seems like one bad/disruptive winter and one drought
may start becoming the norm; this is the view, broadly speaking, highlighted in this article, which covers global
warming economic and social effects in Asia, Europe, Africa, and the US:
Climate change: how a warming world is a threat to our food supplies | Environment | The Observer
I think we’ll see another big hit to the net jobs number and participation rate. But then again, with unemployment benefits ending for a lot of folks, maybe that participation rate will rise. Anyways, I think most of the market thinks it’ll be bad, but the question is, “will it be priced in before or after the data release?”
Well it seems we cannot blame the weather this time around, apparently week ending Jan12 was warm(ish).
All the experts are saying a jump, many talking about 200k… I’m not so sure.
Two crosses I’ll be looking at tomorrow morning (gmt) will be USD/CAD and USD/CHF
The CAD employment is out same time as NFP, some bullish signs on the Canadian data methinks.
Yep, I did read a couple of articles saying that the weather warmed up around the survey time so the payroll count probably didn’t get affected as much by employees being on leave then. Aside from that, there seems to be a pattern of upward revisions in December data once the January figure is released so that might factor in as well. Got any trade setups lined up for the release later?
I think we may come in weaker than expected once again and have my a USDCAD short as well as EURUSD pending long position.
I recommend this article:
Payrolls in U.S. Probably Expanded at a Faster Pace in January - Bloomberg
I’ve heard so many times - stay away from NFP, roulette, gambling etc etc.
Today shows that us simple retail traders can know more than all those highly paid experts at Bloomberg, CNN, and so on.
In one of the recent threads on this site, a thread that is only a few pages long, there lies a piece of information, in a single post, in how to form an intelligent bias on an upcoming employment release.
The business of trading is indeed like an art, and often the better artists are ridiculed, maybe even banned by the art critics of their time.