That pullback was expected after the big drop, but it may continue lower.
Hello traders! Finally, the NZD had a break to the downside, following the release at 2am of the Inflation Expectation figures: this saw a drop from over 2% previously to just 1%, QoQ…
The drop, of more than fifty pips, was unilateral for both NZD/USD and NZD/JPY, both breaking levels around which they had been flirting for days, without conviction, namely 75.00 and 89.00, respectively:
I am still long but it is just chilling. With the ten day low having moved upward at the end of this last session I have just 55 basis points left in risk on this trade that is going nowhere for now. The swap is positive so I am OK to sweat it out.
May the forx be with you.
Hey Arbitrager, good luck with your trades!
Governor Wheeler testified, but said very little:
Dollar gains as Yellen testimony leaves open prospect for lower rates | The National Business Review
What made the NZD rise was the Chinese upgraded growth figure of 50.1 (nothing huge).
Meh.
Hello traders!
FINALLY, thanks to the NFP crushing expectations and providing a strong rally for the USD,
the NZD/USD collapsed by more than one hundred and thirty (130) pips in the last hour and a half,
not only breaking the much-flirted with 0.75 level, to which it had stuck for the last two weeks, but
also breaking the next level down (0.74)…
In turn, NZD/JPY also followed, finally abandoning its 0.90 level obsession and running down in
tandem with the NZD/USD move…
Here is the five-minute (5m) chart for the NZD/USD:
That new 4 week high last week in NZD/USD had me taking profits. I would have shorted on this new 10 day low today but my risk budget kept me out of it. Perhaps I will catch up with it later…
That NZD/JPY long I am in is still intact with some risk still in the trade.
Choppity chop chop.
-Adrian
Incredible! Since Friday, NZD/USD dropped from 0.75 to sub-0.73… and I am still not going short 
Waiting for tomorrow’s RBNZ rate decision…
Ha! Now I am flat again after my stop on that long position was struck at 88.606. So with two trades, one short and one long, both going nowhere, I am down about 33 basis points in total on this pair here in 2015. So now I must follow my whipsaw rule from Ed Seykota: “To avoid whipsaw losses, stop trading.”
So I am not shorting this break below the 200 day moving average. Now I am waiting on the break of a four week high or low to get back in. So I will sell at 87.21 or buy at 91.09. If I take a trade on the break of the four week range and end up with a loss, I will then be out until the break of the ten week range.
I think the day will come wherein the yen will be strong, it is just a matter of how much chop we will deal with in the meantime.
-Adrian
Hello Arbitrager alias ‘Adrian’ :18:
I am sorry to hear about your hiccup… As you say, wait for the next strong confirmation and
go with the flow…
I think that the NZD/USD short is more ‘overdone’ than that of ‘NZD/JPY’, but Yen-cross risk trends
are harder to shift, so the ‘chop’ you mention may not have left our Forex dining table, yet…
I am itching to trade the NZD/USD short live, and it is only thanks to my being in the live market
a little longer than this time last year, that I know how to stick to my guns.
If tomorrow’s RBNZ’s rate decision and press conference will confirm the Governor’s dovish tone
(trying to, again, talk down the currency and put a break on a potential housing bubble), then even
the two hundred pips or so that I have missed out on (from 0.75 last Thursday to sub-0.73 today)
will be nothing compared to the long-term trend ahead of us, especially if the Fed’s quarterly FOMC
meeting next week will give even more fodder to the US Dollar bulls. . .
If all goes well after Wednesday, 8pm GMT, I will certainly fo short on my live account…
Good luck to all Kiwi traders (bulls and bears alike).
I was busy last night and didn’t update orders so I had no order in to trade this new 4 week low so I just put one in. If it gets hit I will be in, if the price retraces I will chill. I did short AUD/JPY with this new 10 day low today.
-Adrian
Ha. Just got hit. I am now short NZD/USD.
-Adrian
The kiwi will just keep suffering from the strength on the US Dollar.
Good evening , traders!
Anyone following Governor Wheeler’s press conference?
He is on the wires now, telling us about the usual ‘unjustified, unsustainable’ Kiwi Dollar level…
and yet NZD/USD is rallying, and it has already gone up by more than one hundred pips, that is correct, 100!!!
I was SO right to stay out of this trade before this RBNZ rate decision (which was a rate hold, actually)…
So what is making the buy attractive… the cheaper level, at 0.72?
There is no inflation upgrade for this or next year, and no mention of rate hikes… and so, I think, the markets
are just buying NZD assets on the cheap… I am guessing… I have really no idea…
However, ‘fading’ the news dictates that the rally could reverse… 0.73 is acting as a barrier…
We will have to wait and see…
NZD/JPY came within a few pips of a new 4 week low which would have put me in short but missed before the bounce up. I am still flat. I am still short AUD/JPY and NZD/USD as we are a long way off from 4 week highs.
-Adrian
Dude you just hurt my teeth.
Woah. I just noticed that with FXCM I would have actually got short NZD/JPY today because their low for the day went a little lower than Gain (the dealer I have my sell stop on with).
-Adrian
Interesting, Arbitrager…
You got away with it 
Had I entered with a NZD/USD short last night, going
into the RBNZ rate decision, I would now be
looking at a -141 pips floating loss…
Thankfully, I stayed put and waited…
Reading this commentary today, I am
and looking at the lack of buying volume
on the 1h chart between last night and this
morning, I do not have confidence in this being
a correction of the bear trend, but rather an
extended rally:
Stuff
It looks to me like a lot of money exchanged hands
before the RBNZ rate decision, and there was a
shortage of sellers as the NZD/USD
touched 0.72…
The pair is now heading for 0.74, but the sellers
may get back in there…
The next big-ticket event for the pair
will be the quarterly FOMC meeting
and press conference next week
(Wed. 18th), so if the NZD/USD needs a nudge back
down, it may ignore other data and look to that day
for direction.
[B]Hello traders! Well, today is the announcement from the ECB about its QE programme introduction, followed by a Draghi press conference in Frankfurt a few hours later: while this event will be shadowed by the FOMC one on Wednesday, there may be volatility around and it may affect more than just the Euro.
The NZD/USD looked bullish this morning, but the bigger picture is still unclear, as the pair is still sub-0.74… What this means is that I will not touch NZD/USD (or NZD/JPY) until the Wednesday event…
Euro traders out there may be getting reading for EUR/USD to push lower than 1.05, having seen its rally at the end of week flop and grow limp into the start of this trading week… With the ECB’s QE event risk today, it will be a good opportunity for short-term traders but also for those riding the larger (bearish) Euro trend…
All in all, a good week for direction in fundamentals and for getting a feel for the market’s direction in the next few months: if the FOMC should sound even more moderately hawkish than it is, then more crowd-buying will push the USD to new highs in preparation for the first rate hike, the consensus for which is June 2015.
Happy trading, everyone!
[/B]
Hello traders!
The NZD/USD decided that it would be a good idea to rally about 200 pips today, nearly touching 0.76…
However, it stopped at the 100-day moving average and declining volume will leave this rally stumped.
This could be a turning point for the NZD/USD but I will again exercise patience and watch both that 100-day moving average and RBNZ/Fed rhetoric.
Happy trading!