EUR/USD surged on Tuesday, violating the hurdle of 1.3900 and reaching 1.3950. In my view, the violation of the 1.3900 barrier changes the short-term outlook from neutral to positive and I would expect buyers to challenge the 13th of March highs at 1.3965 (R1). A decisive break above that resistance may see the 1.4000 (R2) critical bar. Nonetheless, considering that the RSI exited its overbought zone I would expect some further consolidation or a pullback before the development of further advance.
• Support: 1.3900-1.3815-1.3790
• Resistance: 1.3965-1.4000-1.4100
The EURUSD rate is moving to the upside, look like the market is pull back slightly from yesterday’s falling just before the ECP interest rate announcement.
At the moment the EURUSD is stopping at the 200 Exponential moving average on the 4 hour chart around the 1.3830, but it can still go down to the 1.3800 level.
I agree with the analysis, because Draghi’s dropped yesterday an unexpected bombshell that the governing council is comfortable with acting next time, speculating on an easing policy in June.
I booked in my profits for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY as I want to see what next week brings… The inflation figures for the EuroZone as well as the GDP prints could push Euro pairs either way. Once confirmation of a trend follows the breakout rallies of the second half of this week, I will then look at Euro pairs again… My EUR/GBP is the exception, because I have a longer-term trade on this pair, which I am planning to hold for several months, and have been holding for some time.
Do you yourself have any exposure on the Euro-Dollar, or any other Euro pairs?
My opinion, Eur/Usd trend up of d1 level - is stopped at least.
Impulse down is still developing (approx h6 level at the moment). My Future conclusions (for trade decisions) will depend on how deep will be this impulse (it has all the chances to become d1 level)
p.s.: This is a Mid-Term “divided-position” (means: one trade-position accumulated from small parts, accumulation still in process) - with targets below 1.30. My stop-loss orders are a bit above 1.4.
Generally, on quiet days (with no big news releases) the Euro has been doing well… I do not have the EUR/USD under my eyes at the moment, but the EUR/GBP has certainly continued its decline from last week…
Maybe on this occasion the Euro will be doing worse BECAUSE there are no big-ticket items that could give investors renewed confidence… All I see now is that some investors have STIMULUS FROM JUNE in their minds, and that the Euro sell-off has already started, this being a forward-looking market…
Lucky guess or do you have an insider in the ECB? The Euro could have gotten above the 1,4 if Draghi hadn’t crushed it. But congrats on the pips you made.
