A brief share, questions around volume, any contribution welcome

Yea, TClub is my baby, like all babies, it had a tricky birth but it came out alive and kicking. Looking to do a lot in physical Gold through some partners. Gold has appreciated more than 700% from 2003, as it rallies back down, it is an amazing time to be in physical Gold. The good news is, everyone can play.

Well, would you look at the FTSE100 opening candle today??


It broke 6,000: we have US Oil to thank for this, as it has now dropped to…

…$33 a barrel !!

That thing goes to 20 for sure. Anyway, the equities are all under pressure.

They are… S&P cracked the 2,000 and held the move so far… Nikkei is down… DAX… etc.

Have you seen CAD/JPY?? I put a photo up on my CAD/JPY thread! Impressive…

Did you get some nice pips on that GBP/JPY short?

Is real estate about to burst another bubble?

Interesting thoughts on the film ‘Big Short’ here, while commenting on what caused the

sub-prime mortgages crisis in the US: Power Trading Radio Video Archives | Wednesday, January 6, 2016

If the quest for affordable housing was at the root of it, it could happen in the UK too, if

the government starts lowering the mortgage lending standards in a bid to house more people…

Certainly, the equities outlook is pretty bleak… they may blame it on China, US Oil, etc. but

what if mortgage lending were tied to financial securities that were sold to the banks by

private firms? If the house of cards (e.g. the S&P500) came tumbling down, would this not

evaporate housing equity profits and hit lenders and borrowers (i.e. banks and mortgage holders)

too?

What do you make of it all?

The story around Canada is two fold, on one hand low oil prices, on the other low demand for Crude overall. Then we have the GDP story…

The big short certainly opened eyes but I knew the story anyway, this was going since I was 22 years old, now I am well over 30 years old. So bubbles take time to develop. Yes, people are being sold these same ****ty mortgaged backed securities all over again, the sad news is that the governments are now openly guaranteeing these mortgages. Ever heard of Right Step? 95% Debt 5% collateral. All you need is an 18k job.

So in 10 years or so, it all starts over. Buy Gold!!!

Crazy stuff…

Topical article of the day, then, must be this, in response to your post:

Ireland cenbank chief says to review mortgage rules this summer - The Irish Times

Humans are suckers for making a mockery of past experience!

Hello traders!

Well, what is Cable doing?

Looking at volume (retail volume, that is), the last two days have seen a down move (off the 50-day moving average) on the back of an up-swing that lasted several days: given that volume has dropped off to almost nothing, the down-move will have very little strength, and the upcoming FOMC rate decision (tomorrow) will undoubtedly have a bearing on the volume of trading that will be around on Cable and other majors until that event.


Hey Pip, how are you? That question surely peaked my interest. Well, Cable is experiencing the shorts from retail at this point in time. I am of the opinion we get more upside. The volume yesterday was mainly smaller speculators. Even the big sell off at London AM at 1.4375 was timid at best with the bulk probably being longs liquidating from 1.4335. The rest was pretty much a run off. FOMC on the horizon, the 1.4100 buy side looks attractive. For now it is best to wait. Remember BoE is Thursday, so it will be fun to see how we play this one when the liquidity is back in. Already shorts are covering today as expected, into 1.4180’s, maybe we get to run it back down late in NY. Can’t say at this point, the Americans are unpredictable.

Hello Emerald,

I am fine…will become a dad in less than two months (arghhh)!! Excitement and mild panic mixed in one :slight_smile:

Trading is slow…I have been long the Pound and short the FTSE100 since last summer as long-term positions: holding and watching three trades with yearly targets is a humbling exercise in patience and in self-belief.

How is the Trading Club and life in general?

Congrats! Mine is 3 and the other is 13. So I have seen it all. Go with the flow my friend…

Nice trade, well I suppose, it is getting to the losing steam stage, Oil was likely going to be the catalyst of Sterling but I think Oil will struggle pushing past 50. It has to be shorts covering after a stellar bear run from 106. Just look at the correlation to the FTSE, so could be those Oil stocks helping the rally as well.

We shall see.

Ah…a message of hope for a soon-to-be dad, then!

I agree, crude oil is leading the charge for equities and tge FTSE100 especially…

As you say, we shall see…

What do you think aboit this theory?

A monster head and shoulders pattern building - The Daily Reckoning - UK Edition

I am very bullish on the Aussie. I think long-term, there is room for growth. We may see a bottom but the more I look the more convinced I am the downside is over.

Greetings everyone . this is my first post in babypips. This has been my third week doing forex. I finished reading through the entire syllabus at babypips school . very interesting indeed. I dint have any system to go by in demo ACC. Soon I traded on cowabunca. I follow up with cowabunca but I did some minor changes to the tf. 1h for main trend and 1min for my trading . as a newbie I didn’t know what those stoch , RSI , EMA and mcad really are. I just follow the rules. My trading is fine for now but I still have trouble with the risk/reward. All those I mention , believed to be laggin indicator. Simple reason as, most of the time the system gives the all go green light to trade. After a reversal candlestick had appear. So to me. Candlestick is very important to me. Only problem is , isn’t 100% that after a good reversal candlestick had formmed with the system align. Would I get a high probability to win the trade. Hence I was looking for another indicator. Something which isn’t a laggin indicator but show what happens with the current time. Found this thread after searching all around the forum in babypips. You guys are great . thanks man . I currently reading the anna culling’s book, chapter 5. Hope to learn more.

Happy trading .

Glad to hear that you have found Emerald’s thread useful!

Anna Couling’s book is useful, indeed… Remember that another way to look at forex volume is through currency futures, either through the (lagging) C.O.T.
report or live on the charts…
Currency futures are USD-denominated, however, so if you were trading crosses you would only get the equivalent major, for example the COT report will only give GBP/USD contract figures, rather than any other GPB pair…

Thanks pipsmehappy for tips. May I know where can I look for resources , article or books regarding using currency futures as volume indicator . more precisely, do you have any good recommendation for me to study this ? Thanks

Hi!

Well,you could start with this…

FX Daily Exchange Volume & Open Interest

Oanda use some of the CFTC’s COT report to produce a handy graph every week:

Forex COT | OANDA

Here is an example of what the currency futures COT report looks like:

CFTC Commitments of Traders Short Report - Financial Traders in Markets (Futures Only)

Also, read here how to interpret the report:

Understanding and Trading the COT Report

http://forums.babypips.com/fundamental-ville/66162-cot-report-analysis-thread-market-sentiment.html

Daniel (Emerald), is there anything else that you could add or suggest regarding currency futures volume ?

Tick volume is just as good, and maybe it is a better proxy for trading activity, than real volume. Only thing is, your tick volume data has to come from a proper source. The biggest brokers’ feed or eSignal does the job.

You are looking for the activity. Volume equals activity. But they can tamper with real volume, and they actually do, because they want to hide it as much as they can. Because smart money knows how important it is for trading.

They can’t tamper with tick volume.