A brief share, questions around volume, any contribution welcome

Lol! Not likely, just been a bit busy with trading and business, so I don’t have a lot of time but I am always happy to contribute to this amazing community.

That’s quite interesting Pip. I am very Bullish on the Kiwi and the reason is, commodity markets. The KIwi correlates with the Aussie and that correlates with Coffee because of the Com Doll relationship. Coffee is around $140/lb after trading up to $148/lb. There is likely to be a shortage in fresh Coffee, the El Nino effect seems to have altered climate in S/America.

This prospect of higher commodity prices into next year means the Kiwi and Aussie are starting to benefit. The balance of trade also posted a surplus and with Oil production and exports up, we can see some commercial demand for Kiwi, so speculators naturally should want to be long ahead of any FED moves as well. Here is a post I made a while back on Coffee on trading view, everyone thought I was nuts calling it to those highs.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/KC2!/B0zuW3Yi-Sweet-Coffee-Set-For-Shortage-And-higher-Prices/

Good analysis, Emerald!

Thank you for this insight…

I just follow Dairy as the main influence on NZD, therefore tomorrow’s Global Dairy Trade

auction is what I will be watching, as I do every fortnight… Wheeler cares very much for

dairy farming, which is why I follow this closely… To be honest, I do not think I could start

watching Coffee too… :slight_smile:

Hello peeps!

Here is a good example of VPA (volume-price analysis) showing this morning’s Pound rally backed by

very strong buy volume in the Pound Futures (Sep. 2016 expiration) contracts:


The 9am-9.59am candle on this hourly chart shows how volume went up like a bullet,

and price responded accordingly, pushing up about 100 pips; when price and volume

mirror each other so perfectly, this is a genuine move, according to Wyckoff.

PS: here is the data that triggered the Pound buy this morning…


(Data courtesy of Investing.com)


Screenshot from Commoditycharts.com shows the daily chart from the Kiwi futures with Sep. 2016 expiration: the last red candle on the right is from today and price made a strong move south, finally breaking 0.73.

This is a good example of a strong price move backed by strong volume…

Hey all, hope we are all well? It is certainly not a bad time to Bullish on Oil for $60 a barrel in future. Bear in mind this is likely a longer term correction and I don’t expect the long long term picture to remain bullish. Be on your guard.

The intraday picture yesterday reflects the overall sentiment. Bear in mind, we are likely to see some liquidation today seeing the new buyers in the early US atlantic session are still in, there has also been no liquidation from early Asia, which I expect to come at some time in Europe or we must brace for a big US session (Price drop). All said Dollar Index is poised for 98.06 bid, Gold is already struggling to trade Asian highs all though I suspect we will get them at some point before the sell off. Happy trading guys.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TP5SQ4G5/

This is an excellent thread and I feel like it should remain visible!

Again, this thread should stay up :slight_smile:

So…Macron won the elections: as Turbo asked on Peterma’s EU thread, will the Euro shoot up at the market open?

The June expiration contracts for CME Euro futures (daily chart) look promising in volume and price combination

to the upside above 1.10:


Hi guys finally picked up on this. I was a little busy this year. I am still here though. It seems like your thoughts on the Euro yielded more than you can imagine. It did very well indeed so far.

I have had my on wheat. You guys are missing out for sure if you are not looking at some of the commodities. This US virus ravaging wheat at the moment is looking to change the game. On the FX playing field I think the Yen is the one to watch.

By the way we just put up a new facebook group a few days ago, it is a closed group to keep spam down but some good content will be there for sure. Group

@emeraldorc Hey Emerald, I just finished listening to your great, truly great interview on Desire To Trade podcast… Here it is for all to hear:

https://www.desiretotrade.com/dttp-027-the-professional-trader-and-his-trading-process/

I urge everyone to listen to it!

Great episode, Daniel a.k.a. Emeraldorc!

Keep up the good work!

PipMe

A great thread about forex and volume here:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=402865

Daniel aka @emeraldorc talking about TPO, a similar volume analysis to VAP using histograms:

https://youtu.be/GRr5Bp4BgpQ

Thanks for the link PMH!

Just started reading and bookmarked the thread.

I use volume in my analysis. Vol in conjunction with candles and S/R can help in gaining an edge traders are looking for.

KC

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Hello Traders!

I have been working with ideas around volume for some time, as you can see…

There is a Volume At Price available on TradingView for currency futures,

which means that you can see a histogram at the side of the screen projecting volume

size for each price level on a currency, giving you an immediate visual appreciation of

where currency (futures) volume is concentrated in relation to price.

For this service you will have to pay for one of the TradingView packages, as VAP is not

offered on the free version.

Hi @PipMeHappy - I am interested in volume as well.

I’ve thought about this for a while and what you seem to be saying is that volume is predicted by price.

I work from the premis that price is predicted by Volume !

Do you have a correlation chart to back up your opinion here ? :confused:

[Edit - or is this an examination of the “Pending orders” wich we “mortal plebs” cannot see ]

@rrram2 suggests that we are “lambs to the slaughter” because we cannot see those “pending orders” which the pros can.

Are you saying that this subscription service redresses that balance somewhat ? :sunglasses:

1 Like

@Falstaff I actually did not say that, in fact I said what you did, which is not that volume is ‘predicted by price’ but rather that a horizontal volume graph does a better job at relating where that volume is concentrated in relation to price levels, rather than the ordinary vertical volume bars below your currency chart…

Here are two examples: one sent to me by my contact here in the city where I live, @BrentJB , who has a subscription to TradingView and kindly sent me a Volume-At-Price chart (daily) screenshot for EUR futures (CME) four days ago:

Another type of volume-at-price analysis, called TPO (time-price-opportunity) is shown in this video in 2015 by the very person who started this thread, namely @emeraldorc , who is actually Daniel Sesay and now works with the Traders’ Club in London:

He also posted volume videos earlier in this huge thread, back in the very first pages, so if you scroll back you will
find them…

In terms of the volume bar colours on the Euro futures chart, I believe that green and red turn darker as the volume increases over a certain amount: what is important is seeing the biggest concentration, in this case around the 1.18 mark, which indeed could be how we saw price trying for 1.1850 but finally retreating and, today, completely collapsing all the way to 1.1550.

I hope that this helps!

Happy Trading!

2 Likes

Ah - ok I see :sunglasses:

It was the use of the “projected” word which confused me. I inferred a predictive element from that.

I assume the bars on the first chart relate to “current open interest” ? thus are a reflection of opinion as it is now ?

I wonder if there is any way of abstracting that information to form a historical “Point and figure chart” as Wyckoff suggested ? - No I don’t suppose that is relevant. Accumulation / distribution would be reflected in that “current open interest” and “previous intentions” would not really be hugely relevant except possible from a psychlogical persective of potential bias.

Thanks for popping this thread up again, I’ll take a look ! :relaxed:

[Edit - thinking about this and Wyckoff’s point and figure charts - I suppose we could view that Open interest as a proxy for his “count” across, except that his “count” included “blanks” whereas “open interest” would not. - Hmmm. ]

A bit cheeky perhaps, but I wonder if @BrentJB would be content to post the open interest snip just before the move of which you speak ?

@Falstaff I will ask him