Forex is NOT about traders

Trading Discussion
1

So why trade like every other schlub that is losing money?

This fact is only something I have recently come to terms with, that Forex is NOT about traders. Forex is primarily about goverments, banks, and businesses.

Many of you trade as if every move made by the market happened in a deliberate fashion; as if everything happened for a reason. Many of you trade as if technical analysis and indicators move the markets. Many of you fail. Coincidence? Likely not.

Yet retail transaction volume comprises only 5% of the market. What percentage of the non-retail trading volume is placed in a non-speculative fashion, but simply occurs as a result of foreign exchange? That percentage could be seen as the randomness of the market. Clearly it varies on any given day.

I’m not claiming that the markets are a truly random walk, or that it’s impossible to make money. I know both of those statements are false.

If you’re currently losing, contrary to what you may believe [B]you are not one “aha” moment away from cracking the puzzle[/B]. I wasted almost a year in that mindset. Chances are everything you think you know is wrong. Throw it all out. All of the mantras which are parroted to newbies from day one are completely false.

Question everything. If it’s something the majority accepts as truth, then it is probably wrong.

2

Hmmmm… :33:

Interesting post, there is however, one thing you failed to mention.

Forex is really about liquidity seeking yield. That’s why price moves.
Banks, governments, business are not out to get you as a trader. If any trader believes that then they obviously cannot turn a profit in their account.

A better question to ask yourself is…

Why do the big boys move money from one currency to another?

3

I’m aware. I feel that those stories just come from bitter traders who want a justification for their losses.

Plenty of reasons. As a speculative tool, as a hedge, to convert a business transaction…Too many others to list as I’m on my way to bed.

All I was trying to say is that the market holds a certain degree of randomness. Not every transaction performed is by somebody thinking like a trader. To what magnitude that randomness exists, I can only guess.

4

There are programs trading in the market. That’s true. Only the most profitable ones however are active most of the time. The more capital is available to trade the more aggressive an algorithm can be.

EUR/USD, 06/05/2014, ECB event - the perfect example.

5

So very very true. Its called supply and demand. The purest form found on this planet. But even in chaos there is order.

6

struggling to consider the rationality degree of the fact that someone addresses to everyone else but himself and names them “you” with such confidence.

7

Absolutely true…the greatest trader ever to walk the earth traded without technicals…he just depended on TIME…and the passage of price through TIME

8

I think this assumption was taken without much thought and zero evidence

9

YES !!!..right on the nail

10

Hello traders…

Interesting thoughts from Jad…

I would agree but also say that, for me, the past few months have been good for my account, and in spite of all the

horror stories and the ‘big market makers ONLY’ warnings, I managed to ‘sweep up the crumbs’ to my advantage

and make a steady profit, from over 5%, to over 7%, and (last month) to over 8%, without over-trading or

over-leveraging.

If you think that as a retail Forex trader with a small account you can make steady profits, then it does not mean

that just because you are not a ‘market mover’ making millions you will de facto be a failure! Quite the opposite:

if you set REALISTIC GOALS about monetary returns for your Forex retail investment, then, provided that you can

invest the time to learn how to trade in a way that is sustainable (think of your work-life balance), you will have

every chance of being SUCCESSFUL.

Unfortunately there is an historic and ‘macho’ mentality, a male-driven one at that, which immediately translates

the word ‘successful’ into ‘millionaire’… THIS IS WHERE IT ALL GOES WRONG… It is a matter of re-educating children

in thinking that becoming a parent, saving a community’s green area from development, buying a good home for

yourself, having good relationships with other people, are all equally important SUCCESS ELEMENTS!

Equally, if you use Forex to invest your money for you and your family, to make better returns than what a bank

account could ever give you, then that is a SUCCESS… Making millions out of it is NOT THE POINT.

So stop chasing gold, and if you are content with keeping a small account in profit, then all the 95% FAIL AT FOREX

horror stories will be of no concern to you, and you will be happily ‘sweeping the crumbs’ off the ‘big money’ table!

There you go!

Happy trading.

11

Yes, indeed, that is what I am saying all this time but people is willing to believe in math formulas and conspiranoia.

12

I myself ignored what I see now for quite a while.

On this forum and a couple others I visit, there’s a small minority of people who I noticed have been posting similar thoughts for years.

They endure, month after month banking consistent profits. All the people that constantly argue with them and tell them it isn’t the way it is until they run out of air and go red in the face… Those people all disappeared or were still just running in place.

Eventually I decided to actually try it myself instead of taking the majority opinion at face value.

So thanks for sticking around, saying what you know even in the face of argument from every side… Sometimes it does get through!

13

jadd806,

I think you’re right, for the most part, governments, banks, and businesses, etc, are the controlling participants in the FX market.

As retail traders we aren’t privy to the goals and objectives of those big players. And the objectives of the major participants can be very different than traders. I suspect if we could get a peek inside the order books and understand their objectives, it might seem a lot less random.

So maybe the best retail traders can do is use our analysis as an aid in attempting to decode the objectives of the Mr bigs. Asking, up & down the price ladder where are the orders parked? And who’s winning the longs v shorts tug-of-war?

At the end of the day, I think we all find that sometime everything falls into place and the money comes easy, other times, it’s f*#king impossible. :17:

14

As traders we are not allowed to believe in conspiracy theories.

15

Sometimes I wonder why we even trade, knowing that the market is deliberately manipulated…

16

If you believe that you shoul not be trading at all. I mean I don’t denny the possibility of it, if so, well act in consequence, even manipulated you still can make money, just learn to think how manipulators works.

17

Mate I wasn’t going for that at all with this post. You may want to re-read.

I believe there is some occasional funny business.

And if it is rigged, who cares… I’ll second Mr. Gone. You can make money whether it’s rigged or not.

18

Nah, I’ve been in this on and off for over 7 years now. I was just being a bit pessimist. I’m in it because even with political, bank & broker corruption, money can still be made. It just means one must be more vigilant.

19

I may want to re-read the tone and angle in which you were going with this, sorry. :slight_smile:

20

Nice post. T thought Forex is about traders and business for us to earn and have jobs. Job security is where the least drop was seen of all those polled across the country. The joblessness rate is staying at over eight percent still.