Hello traders!
In contributing to this thread
http://forums.babypips.com/other-pairs/60377-eurnzd-december-23rd.html
I wanted to post it on here in order to make it more visible!
What do you think?
PS - Never pick tops and bottoms! (Disclaimer)!
Ill be on the opposite side 
Good oh! 
a. what is your spread in that pair?
b. have you calculated the swap to be paid for holding such a position for months?
c. a retest of 1.518 seems more likely to happen for obvious fundamental reasons, but
d. if it bounces convincingly off 1.542, then anything may happen.
Generally, imho this is a bad time for short selling NZD or GBP
PS. it would be great a NZD sell-off as i am trapped in a long AUDNZD trade (influenced by another post of yours…grrrr…just kidding…after all it is more possible for the AUDNZD to bounce than the EUR/NZD, at least we’ll all know sooner because of interest rates decision of RBA beginning of July)
Etfak,
I am not looking at months and months on the EUR/NZD… I made plenty of money out of shorting this pair,
but I am going for a long trade… I am watching the NZD/USD tonight also, to see if I can short it on the
RBNZ rally on data in about half an hour (it could be short lived, or flush out a lot of buyers and continue
to unwind)…
In the end, your comments are absolutely spot on, so I cannot fault your thinking… Biases are a complex
thing that forms in our minds, and all I can tell you is that I am long the EUR/NZD… in the end, that trade
defines my thinking on this pair at the moment - it may change, if I am proven wrong…
Regarding the AUD/NZD, I did produce a rather long video on YouTube, which I posted here, where I
show that AUD/NZD as the ‘trade of the year’, and although I did not actually hold this for long periods,
waiting for confirmation (and to free up capital), it is looking good, on the second test of the trend floor…
But then, as always, trend-lines can be just lines in the sand… it is fundamentally difficult to predict
market reaction to the RBA rate decision as much as to the RBNZ hikes… So, for a pair like AUD/NDZ,
although the technicals say ‘medium-term up-trend’, it may be something on our charts that never
materialises…
Same as for EUR/NZD, so I am not in any way CERTAIN of my bias (who can ever be but a fool).
Happy trading!
Thanks for sharing your thoughts! This seems like a really good pair to keep shorting, mostly because of the divergence in monetary policy biases of the ECB and RBNZ, but technicals reveal that sellers are looking exhausted. This could really use a relief rally sooner or later.
The interest rate on the kiwi has my attention to sell it, but I can and will take it long as well for day trading.
Bagged thirty pips today, on the upside…
Perfect trade.
As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency pair dated 2014.04.01, according to the formed technical signs, there was the potential for ascending of price which finally happened. Buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 1.62805.Currently price with teaching to the ascending trend line ( made of 2 bottom prices) has been stopped from more descend and with forming of the harami candlestick pattern on weekly chart, warns the possibility of formation of a bottom price which need the confirmation by the next bullish candle. According to the formed movements in the chart, there is AB=CD harmonic pattern(also you can see else harmonic pattern) with none-ideal ratios of 78.6 and 161.8 between top price of 1.62805 and the bottom price of 1.54724 that warns about the potential of ascending from the endpoint of this pattern.
RSI indicator in daily time frame is in saturation sell area and also it is in divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the created bottom price on the uptrend line and warns about the potential of changing price direction. Generally until the bottom price of 1.54724 is preserved, price will have the potential for ascending and reformation.
Technical Analysis of EUR/NZD dated 2014.06.30
Hello PipSafe,
and thank you! A great analysis! With the NZD as the most hawkish of the major currencies, this pair
is very well poised for some great opportunities… If the bias to the upside plays out, it could be a
great medium-term trade (a few days to a few weeks)…
Cheers
EUR/NZD in recent weeks, has been experienced many reformation with a gradual downward trend that Sellers over price decreases obtained the lowest price of 1.54035.Currently in long-term time frames such as monthly ,weekly and daily price is under the 5-day moving average which implies consistent downtrend with potential of further decreases in price during the next candles.As it is obvious in the picture below, price during the descending has touched the Support Level (made of 5 bottom prices) and also the round supportive level of 1.54000 and has created the Inverted hammer candlestick pattern. Closing of the bullish candle after this pattern will confirm it and warns about ascending of price.
As it is obvious in the picture below, there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern between the top price of 1.67810 and the bottom price of 1.54035 with none-ideal ratios of 50 to 161.8 that warns about descending of price from the D point of this pattern. RSI indicator is in saturation sell area in daily time frame and in divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the bottom price of 1.54035 warns about changing trend direction. Generally until the bottom price of 1.54035is preserved, price has the potential of ascending.
Technical Analysis of EUR/NZD dated 2014.07.14
Great analysis… I really got to study this Gartley malarkey before I die
Euro is looking perky against Kiwi but with RBNZ’s rate decision next week we need to wait
to see what is in store (in terms of market reaction); also, we are approaching the (historically)
quietest summer trading month (August), so any true trend continuation or reversal may
actually be deferred until September.
Cheers.
I trade harmonics probably 1 out of every 50 trades.
Here’s a good resource to get started.
Also, look up Jason Stapleton’s stuff.
He’s legit.
EUR/NZD during the recent days was in a strong and consistent down trend that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 1.57211 .Price has been stopped from more descending with reaching to the up trend line made of 2 supportive points (some sellers used these levels to leave their trades) during descending .
As it is obvious in the picture below, there is Gartley harmonic pattern between the top price of 1.64425 and the bottom price of 1.57211 that there is a potential for ceasing of price from D point of this pattern. Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area in daily time frame that warns the potential of formation of a bottom price and a little price reformation in this range. Generally according to the current situation of the price chart in daily time frame until the third point of up trend line is preserved, the price will have the potential to ascend and pass the mentioned bottom price.
Fantastic!
The trouble with such a slow cooker is that while you are waiting for a EUR/NZD long to run into a few hundreds of pips,
with such a huge interest rate differential between the two currencies you are clocking up a huge negative rollover every
day…
I do not know for sure that it is cheaper to sell NZD/USD, for example, than buying EUR/NZD, but I do have reservations,
from previous experience, in holding a long EUR/NZD or GBP/NZD trade for many days, or even weeks, given the huge
negative rollover that you can build up…
Something to think about!
F