Higher TF with portfolio diversification

I have stumbled upon a thread started long ago by MG and was /kinda/ intrigued /i know :30:/ by his idea how we can diversify by creating a portfolio of pairs rather than focusing on one or two pairs. While diversifying any sort of investment portfolio is nothing new I’ve never heard of anyone talk about portfolio diversification in forex.

To trade 10-20 pairs at one time and keeping your positions open for a week or even a month and eventually gaining thousands if not hundreds of pips doesn’t sounds like a bad idea instead of going after 20 pips at a time.

However having open positions of 10 or more pairs at one time is very challenging I think even with smaller lots and minimized risk per trade. If your analysis is wrong for 6 or more pairs you’re doomed to incur losses assuming value per pip for each pair is exactly same /which usually isn’t the case/

He was using dailies for his analysis. I’ve traded dailies for a while now and while it may provide you with better picture of general direction of the market as opposed to lower TF’s it still isn’t as clear as weekly. Big news events still impact the daily charts as it would with lower TF’s. And on many occasions that clouded my analysis.

So I thought how about basing your analysis off of weeklies while creating a forex portfolio ? Does it change anything for the better ? Please share your views :slight_smile:

MG’s idea is refreshing in a sense a lot of people regard or trade forex as if it was gambling but if we approach trading from this perspective it might as well can be an investment. Speculation propose higher risk than investment.

Hey rookie!

That thread was the most influential piece I’ve ever read. If you see there towards the end, I have some input there of what I’ve been up to lately. And still. It’s gonna take a long time to come up with a packaged strategy with those principles, for me. But am working on it.
I do like your idea about using weekly time frames. But, I have a serious problem with holding on to a portfolio for any length of time. If I’m losing, I get out, winning, take profit. And the basis of his strategy is using the trend, for a particular time period. He says that if there was a trend, he was in it. That statement just gets to the core of me. But, as I have figured out, the trend is relative! It could as well be not trending in one time frame but still be trending in a farther one out. It is tough to stay in a trend after the correction has been made also. Cause you know that it’s gonna correct. So then I want to jump out and not lose some pips, but, then I think that it just can’t go any higher. So, I don’t get back in on it. Then it goes back up!
It’s tough and takes a strong stomach.
That would be my ultimate goal, to be able to say…“if there was a trend in the market, I was in it”.
But, at what time frame period??? And I get caught up trying to decide which way to go, whether with just one currency across the board, or with technicals showing trends, or even with the majors against the commodity currencies. Combination or all of the above. The possibilities are endless what you can do with a trend diversification portfolio methodology.

So, anyway, I just wanted to mention that that thread will always stay with me. It’s just gonna take much much longer for me to come up with the right packaged strategy, than what I was hoping for. But, I will never ever give up on this journey. It is too fun, interesting, complex, never a dull moment, challenging, risky, rewarding, self-realizing, and most of all…fun!

Mike

Hi Mike!

I went through his thread all the way to the very end and have actually read your post. I agree that it takes a great mental strength to stay in throughout corrections. But it’s good to keep in mind that pullbacks are part of the trend. And trend is subjective relative to which TF we refer to. Pairs that are trending on dailies might be ranging on weekly TFs. But if you can ride on that range that might as well give you more gains than a trend on a dailies would plus weekly set ups are more accurate. In conclusion I think at the end you shouldn’t conclude your trade decisions based purely on if pairs are trending or not. Trend , range, corrections /pullbacks/ they all offer for a gain if we know how to exploit. Whatever the condition the market is in we’ll have to learn to exploit. This ideology might not always work perfectly on lower TF’s but higher TFs like weekly offers more clarity to the direction and market behaviour than any other TF’s thus we can open trades with more conviction and hold on to it for longer period.

Now holding onto positions for an extended period of time is very challenging especially for new traders I think. But as we gain experience and really know what we’re doing I’m convinced that corrections here and there shouldn’t really affect us and we would be emotionally ready to standstill throughout these periods where losses will occur and but will eventually pocket in a lot more gains that we would have if we’ve gotten out earlier on pullbacks. All of these will come with experience. And I’m definitely not ready to standstill through corrections and open up my portfolio to see hundreds of negative pips or see my unrealized profit being washed away. But the time will come with experience :slight_smile:

There’re countless variables that we can explore and that itself is fascinating as much as the monetary gains. And its always challenging since its never a routine. And if one variable ever becomes a routine we can always explore the other variables. I’m glad to be on this journey and like you I have no thoughts about quitting any time soon. I think I’ve just found what I want to do. Finally :smiley:

I"ll update this thread if I’m onto something in regards to this strategy :wink:

It is common knowledge that the bigger is the timeframe the less noise you get in the chart. Sound trends, able to be fundamentally interpreted are formed on > day timeframes. As I understand you want to shift you trading to weekly positions but be aware of swaps (which is in most cases are agaisnt you) and price spikes (especially on high-volatility pairs) which can trigger your SL’s.