29.07.2014 7:07 EURUSD
EURUSD: pressure against the background of possible sanctions against major Russian companies
Sell on a level breakthrough of 1.3400 with 1.3300 target. Stop loss = 1.3475.
Reason for the trading strategy.
This week, the EU plans to extend sanctions against major Russian companies (Sberbank, VTB and others). Taking the close connection between the Russian and European economies into account, the introduction of sanctions will reduce the GDP growth rates of the Russian Federation and the EU, putting pressure on the ruble and the euro.
EURUSD, H4
25.08.2014 8:08 EURUSD
EURUSD: under pressure before the Ifo publication of Germany’s business climate index
Sell on rebound from 1.3220 level with 1.3112 target. Stop loss = 1.3300.
Reason for the trading strategy.
Today at 8.00 GMT, the Ifo business climate index in Germany for July will be published. In August, the index is expected to decline (already for the fifth month in a row) from 108.0 p. to 107.1 p. It is believed that Merkel’s recent visit to Kiev and her promise to provide a loan of 0.5 billion euros to Ukraine does not add optimism to German taxpayers .
EURUSD, H4
26.08.2014 8:08 EURUSD
EURUSD: consolidation higher than 1.3177 support level
Sell on a level breakthrough of 1.3177 with 1.3112 target. Stop loss = 1.3240.
Reason for the trading strategy.
Despite the decline in the business climate index for Germany Ifo, the subsequent disappointing macroeconomic data for the United States allowed the EURUSD pair to make a correction from the level of 1.3177. From a technical point of view, on a level breakdown such as this, it makes sense to open short positions on the euro with a 1.3112 target.
EURUSD, H4
27.08.2014 8:08 EURUSD
EURUSD: under pressure after publication of data for durable goods orders in the US
Sell on rebound from 1.3177 level with 1.3112 target. Stop loss = 1.3230.
Reason for the trading strategy.
In July, orders for durable goods in the United States increased by 22.6% (m/m) despite a 7.8% (m/m) forecast, helping to bolster the world’s reserve currency. The main impetus for the growth were orders for aircraft, which jumped 318% due to the July international air show in Farnborough. In addition, orders for cars rose in July at the most significant rate over the past 5 years.
EURUSD, H4
EURUSD: growth before publication of the German consumer price index
Sell on a level breakthrough of 1.3185 with 1.3112 target. Stop loss = 1.3240.
Reason for the trading strategy.
Today, market participants will learn the most important macroeconomic data for Germany. It is expected that the unemployment rate in Germany in August will remain at 6.7% and consumer price inflation will be at a level of 0.8% (y/y). If, however, inflationary pressure drops below 0.8% (y/y), it will serve as a pretext for a further easing of monetary policy in the eurozone.
EURUSD, H4
02.09.2014 9:09 EURUSD
EURUSD: pressure before publication of the Eurozone PPI
Sell on a level breakthrough of 1.3100 with 1.3050 target. Stop loss = 1.3150.
Reason for the trading strategy.
Today at 9:00 GMT, the Eurozone PPI will be published. In July, this indicator is not expected to change, which indicates low inflationary pressure in the region. At the upcoming ECB meeting, market participants expect to hear about new measures of monetary stimulus in the euro zone, which would put pressure on the euro.
EURUSD, H4
18.09.2014 7:07 EURUSD
EURUSD: under pressure against the background of rising yields of long-term American bonds
Sell on a level breakthrough of 1.2832 with 1.2757 target. Stop loss = 1.2890.
Reason for the trading strategy.
The growth in the yields of 10-year US government bonds of up to 2.61% has increased the demand for the world’s reserve currency. According to our estimates, after the completion of the QE3 asset purchases program, the yield on these bonds will approach the levels of 2.8% -3.0%, which will lead to a further strengthening of the dollar in the FOREX market.
EURUSD, Daily
29.09.2014 9:09 EURUSD
The euro is successfully consolidating above the 1.2662 support level
Sell on a level breakthrough of 1.2662 with 1.2603 target. Stop loss = 1.2710.
Reason for the trading strategy.
Today at 12.30 GMT, the statistics on personal spending and income of American consumers will be published. The expected growth of both indices by 0.5% (m/m) and 0.3% (m/m) respectively in August is likely to increase pressure on the EURUSD pair. On a resistance level breakthrough of 1.2662, opening long positions is worth considering.
EURUSD, H4
10.10.2014 9:09 EURUSD
The euro maintains the 1.2671 support level after the publication of the volume of industrial production in France
Buy on a level breakthrough of 1.2720 with 1.2786 target. Stop loss = 1.2670.
Reason for the trading strategy.
The euro was supported by the statistics on the volume of industrial production in France. The key macroeconomic indicators for the euro zone’s second economy in August have not changed, and were better than the expected 0.2% (m/m). However, the euro bulls should be cautious with purchases, having finally received the data on industrial production in Italy.
EURUSD, H4
15.10.2014 7:07 EURUSD
EURUSD: under pressure against the background of a decline in industrial production in the euro zone
Sell on a level breakthrough of 1.2605 with 1.2500 target. Stop loss = 1.2655.
Reason for the trading strategy
The euro came under pressure again after the publication of negative macroeconomic statistics in the euro zone. The decline in industrial production, as well as in the ZEW business sentiment index in the euro zone, confirmed the development in recessionary processes in the region.
EURUSD, H4
27.10.2014 9:09 EURUSD
EURUSD: Consolidation before the publication of Germany’s Ifo business sentiment index
Buy on a level breakthrough of 1.2730 with 1.2835 target. Stop loss = 1.2675.
Reason for the trading strategy
Today at 8.00 GMT, Germany’s Ifo business sentiment index will be published. In October, a slight decline from 104.7 p. to 104.6 p. is expected. We believe the data will not put any significant pressure on the euro. Expectations of the October acceleration in consumer inflation rate in the euro zone to 0.4% (y/y) force institutional investors to close on euro shorts.
EURUSD, H4
28.10.2014 9:09 EURUSD
EURUSD: growth against the background of increasing inflationary pressures in Germany
Buy on a level breakthrough of 1.2730 with 1.2835 target. Stop loss = 1.2675.
Reason for the trading strategy
In September, import prices in Germany rose by 0.3% (m/m), being better than the forecast of - 0.1% (m/m). The data reflect an increase in inflationary pressures in the euro zone’s largest economy, which could support the euro.
EURUSD, H4
29.10.2014 8:08 EURUSD
EURUSD: Consolidation below the 1.2764 resistance level
Buy on level breakthrough of 1.2764 with 1.2835 and 1.2885 targets. Stop loss = 1.2700.
Reason for the trading strategy
After the publication of disappointing statistics on the volume of orders for durable goods in the US, the dollar came under pressure in the FOREX market. The fact that in September, the core index fell by 0.2% (m/m), reflecting a reduction in consumer demand in the US economy. In the short term, we expect the EURUSD pair to test the 1.2764 and 1.2835 levels.
EURUSD, H4
20.11.2014 7:07 EURUSD
EURUSD: growth against the background of an increase in UK’s trade balance
Buy on a level breakthrough of 1.2577 with 1.2633 target. Stop loss = 1.2530.
Reason for the trading strategy
The September increase in the current account of balance of payments in the euro-zone from 22.2 billion to 30 billion euro reflected a greater inflow of foreign currency in the European region. Thus, the reduction in demand for European products in the Russian Federation did not put significant pressure on the volume of foreign trade in the euro zone. In the short term, the euro is likely to rise to the 1.2633 level.
EURUSD, H4
21.11.2014 7:07 EURUSD
The 1.2577 level remains impenetrable for the euro
Buy on a level breakthrough of 1.2577 with 1.2633 target Stop loss = 1.2530.
Reason for the trading strategy
The November decline in the business activity in the euro-zone’s manufacturing and service sectors casts a doubt on the planned recovery trend of the euro-zone’s GDP in Q3 2014. On the other hand, the US central bank’s relatively soft rhetoric, with fears of a reduction in inflation in the US, allows the EURUSD pair to feel confident.
EURUSD, H4
26.11.2014 10:10 EURUSD
EURUSD: Consolidation below the 1.2486 resistance level
Buy on a level breakthrough of 1.2486 with 1.2577 target. Stop loss = 1.2430.
Reason for the trading strategy
In October, Germany’s import prices fell by 0.3% (m/m). Despite the declining inflationary pressures in the euro zone’s largest economy, the EURUSD pair is strengthening due to a certain weakness in the US dollar. The euro’s decline will probably resume after it tests the 1.2577 level.
EURUSD, H4
27.11.2014 7:07 EURUSD
EURUSD: growth against the background of an increase in the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US
Buy on a level breakthrough of 1.2531 with 1.2597 target. Stop loss = 1.2480.
Reason for the trading strategy
The increase from 292 thousand to 313 thousand in the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US in the past week caused the world’s reserve currency to fall in the FOREX market. In the short term we expect the EURUSD pair to grow to the 1.2597 resistance level.
EURUSD, H4
01.12.2014 7:07 EURUSD
EURUSD: consolidation higher than 1.2426 support level
Sell on a level breakthrough of 1.2426 with 1.2360 target. Stop loss = 1.2480.
Reason for the trading strategy
The November decline in the consumer price index from 0.4% to 0.3% in the euro-zone is likely to lead to an expansion of the ECB asset purchases program. Market participants believe that in December of 2014 to Q1 2015, the European regulator will start buying the PIGS countries bonds.
EURUSD, H4
