The preliminary reading for Q2 GDP out of the UK will be reported on Friday and forex traders hope for a strong number. Should expectations be exceeded I am certain we will have a severe short-covering rally in the British Pound on our hands. The British currency has sold off heavily over the past few weeks and I think we are due for a rebound in price action; Friday’s GDP report could be the catalyst most are waiting for. I am looking for a strong annualized GDP figure above 3.5%.
obviously i constantly read your posts.
how do you come up with various estimations that often are so different from the official forecasts?
thanks
I am looking at different things and account for them in a different way. In the end no matter what your estimate is you can see judging by market reactions that the majority (official forecasts) are usually wrong. Those who come up with official forecasts are in no position to make such a call, at least in my opinion, as they have shown time and again that they are not qualified to do so. I hope this answers your question.
being able to make estimations may be quite an edge for fx trading
what do the gdp’s of gb, us, ez, swi, cn, aus, nz, ca consist of?
something to work for in the coming weekend
You can run a search to find out what a GDP report consists of. What really matters is the interpretation of what you read and understanding of how it will impact the economy.
as far as i know not every territory’s gdp consists of the same “ingredients”; e.g. they may all include income from taxes and public service spendings but some include energy savings while others don’t.
the thought is to break down to its “ingredients” the gdp corresponding to a certain currency and come up with a reliable estimation of a future announcement.
aiming to bag more pips of course, what else?
yet, due to local heatwave, thinking of skipping such research this weekend (early weekend start over here) and adopt your forecast as besides i value older members’ opinions, GB’s GDP was announced significantly under 1% in all the first six months, so how can it reach the 3% annual forecast? except the forever prosperous last three months of every year, there should exist a couple of spikes before those months just to support the annual figure.
simple maths (not-moving average… that’s supposed to be a joke)
cheers
Uk GDP meets expectations(more or less)…
GBP moves slightly higher but then comes
back down: the bulls are out.
So much for ‘recovery’ …
I should note that
[B]the 13th August GBP/USD sell-off[/B], spanning over 150 pips,
had [B]the third highest real volume since Jan. 2010[/B] (my FXCM volume data stops there);
this is no small feat, regardless of which side we took on the ‘temporary correction versus trend reversal’ debate…
Cheers
PipMe, the good thing is that the speculation re interest rate rise is out of the way, it was a side show that caused the rapid rise in price.
Now that things are back to normal, aside from manufacturing, the numbers may continue to be on the up side.
A consumer led rise in the economy will auger well for the future, the fact that services remain healthy is important.
As usual the BBC give a balanced report here:
I agree with peterma that the interest rate hike debate will take a back-seat and now the GBP can rally in a more natural environment. GDP was decent, I did expect a reading slightly higher, but overall I think we remain on track to close 2014 above 1.7000 (GBPUSD).
Thank you, Peterma and TheLastBear…
Interesting that the FTSE100, the 1984 index which has a mirror relationship to the Pound,
has risen hugely just at the time of the 13th August sell-off… This is no coincidence…
The FTSE100 (or ‘UK100’ on trading platforms) is due for a continuation to the upside of at least 120 pips,
although this is very much dependent on oil production fears within Kurdistan - a volatile situation…
Petrofac has huge investment potential and any threat to that region could have repercussion for its
shares AND the FTSE 100 as a whole… However, the relationship with the Pound is inversely proportional,
and has been thus for many years, so if the Pound descended another 120 pips we would be around 1.6568,
around which can be found strong resistance in 2000, 2003, and 2011… Take it or leave it, just an
observation 
PS- Do not forget the impact of the Scottish referendum next month
today’s PA for the cable was -kindly speaking- ridiculous
what’s up with this guy in the beard who appears to hate the pound so much? and always refers to his broker?
neways, new target is 1.67625 ret to latest support/turned into resistance
Which guy with a beard…
???