I was just reading an news article from one of the Forex news services. That according to the COT report the euro/dollar is at its highest level of net short positions that it has been in a long time. So that would lead me to think that there are many people short the euro. However, the latest my FX book community Outlook shows 76% of their traders are long the euro. So I’m wondering why would the majority there be long while the majority everywhere else is short? Allen
Remember Allen, CoT is Institutional data, while fxbook community is us speculators. If history is to repeat itself then long is the side we want to be on. Maybe this 76% know something and we should follow their lead.
Same with fxcms clients. SSI shows 65% long. Since 1.3570 mid last month (when I missed my sell signal :34: )I feel like it’s clearly bearish. Love to know who’s long and why as well?
Agree with you mate.
I am long the Euro across the board and the fact that shorts are at such a high level makes me even more bullish. As a trader you don’t want to be where the majority is.
The retail speculative bias stats from fxbook, oanda & forex factory + the top 3 UK spreadbetting firms have been highlighting a very noticeably increasing long bias on eur/usd & gbp/usd for the past 4 to 5 weeks.
Over that corresponding period, prices have been printing lower lows & lower highs, thus confirming the vast majority of retail clients were trading the wrong way.
So, the successful participants who have been making money placing day or intra-week bets during the past few weeks have been shorting rallies and/or entering short via their preferred triggers.
It’s the same case for usd/chf where retail positioning has been very aggressively short, particularly through .8925 & usd/cad through 1.0760.
Again, those receiving credits into their accounts have been betting long those 2 pairs all the way up their corresponding ladder moves until such time neutral/flat signal criteria tells them to to abort.
It looks like the protective stops from those trying to pick 3350 & 6680 as a bottom have been burnt this week on that continuation move down! 
I’ve actually observed a slight increase in the accumulation of long positions during Monday & Tuesday pushing up to 2/3rds accumulating longs from your post of a week ago.
I assume those ratios are similar across the spread betting shops you highlighted?
It really beggars belief why these people continually choose to make life harder than it needs to be.
There were no fresh highs or supporting higher lows printed during last week’s action on end of session data, clearly indicating pressure to the downside & overwhelming risk to the upside.
Makes you wonder really doesn’t it.
They are yeah. But they always are, so no change there.
It doesn’t make me wonder Saul.
If folks simply applied a little common sense & paid less attention to the forum experts on boards such as this, taking the opposite view to them they’d make decent money every week, which is exactly the stance the few successful punters at these firms take on a very regular basis. And I’m talking about punters who have been around this game for donkey’s years.
Some of these guys are banking thousands of dollars/pounds/euros most weeks deploying nothing more than their common sense playing off dumb client directional flow with actual live price movement, betting the path of least resistance.
It’s all about [U]current[/U] favorable odds, & for the past few weeks (including this week) those odds have paid very handsome dividends to the short side on those 2 pairs & the long side of the other 2 pairs mentioned in my initial post.
It might (or might not) also surprise you to hear how little technical & fundamental analysis they actually perform day-on-day, which is in direct conflict to what you observe & what you’re told by all sectors of the membership across these boards.
Work that one out if you can!
and there’s no shortage of opportunity fading clueless money on a regular basis, that’s for sure.
just take a snout around the active threads every time any of the popular pairs begin sloshing around supposed support & resistance levels or basing out after a leg up or down & watch all the excitement as they plan & plot reversal tactics.
you’d have thought expensive lessons would have been learned the amount of time they continually get mugged every time that tactic goes awry, but apparently not.
how many lessons need to be learned for the message to get across that you don’t play reversal moves until trending legs have exhausted & evidential pressure has begun building in the opposite direction.
as saul reivers noted, this week has been yet another classic example of the above as prices took a breather at 1.3350, 1.6675 & 102.70
how many (apart from the wily old Captain Currency) were strongly advising folks to continue shorting the former two & longing the latter one?
most of the posts were loading up on counter trend plays trying to be clever at being first to the tape, while the brokers, as usual, were simply sat watching their satchels fill up with more booty.
aka; analysis paralysis
if it aint got a [I]price action[/I] tag stapled to it then you aint doin it right, lol.
remind me again, what’s the definition of voodoo?
As Basil Fawlty would say “just statein the bleedin obvious dear”
And as my friend G would say “Sometimes you just have to LOL.”
Well, it would seem to me we know now who was right. The euro as been heading steadily down, the institutions are putting money in their pocket. While the FX book traders are crying and wondering how they blown out there account.
Daily range on EU sux though but sells are still good for now. next stop should be around 3130-ish should be in range, with maybe a little retrace first. Trends all end eventually but until then, go with the flow.
1.300 and then some, badaboom badabing fuhgeddabotit !
Next stop may be 1.29
my next level down is around 1.28, of course expect some retrace before that. Long term lows are in the neighborhood of 1.2.
So far no signs of reversal.