Libertys :High low prediction

Trading Discussion
128

Certain Uncertainty

After trying to hold the $1200 level, gold has shied back and is hovering right below that psychological mark. The continued strength in equities has helped limit gold’s upside, although silver, due to industrial factors, found a tiny bit of power – well, a spark, is more like it.

Some of the uncertainty in gold is the nature of this week’s holiday aura. It is a short trading week in the United States. Formally, Thursday is the holiday, but Wednesday and Friday will end up being lighter days in New York trading because people tend to slip out early Wednesday and simply not work on Friday.

That should make gold enthusiasts wary, though, because any large move may inject volatility into the pricing of precious metals. Friday – and therefore Wednesday – is the end of the month, so accounts may be squared up ahead of Thanksgiving.

Tuesday will give us two economic indicator readings. U.S. leading economic indicators and consumer confidence reports are due out, and while the former may show some wavering on growth, the latter will probably at least hold steady. But, the uncertainty will hold back any bold moves until the dust from the gauges’ release settles.

An unexpected surge in business sentiment in Germany also gave some strength to the euro, sending the dollar down and lending support to the price of gold.

What, exactly, the European Central Bank will do regarding stimulus still remains a mystery. If they are serious about pushing the union’s economy over the top, that will probably mean renewed strength for the dollar, and therefore lower gold prices.

Also adding uncertainty is the Swiss referendum concerning the mandating of a certain amount of its reserves in physical gold. While the amount seems indeterminate at this point, the actual amount in dollars will not be far off the amount, by percentage held by other major western economies. So, this seems to us a tempest in a teapot.

One last element of volatility remains on our radar: Ukraine and the Russian invasions of that country’s territory. Today, another former Russian-dominated country, Lithuania, offered military assistance to Ukraine. While Lithuania is a small country with limited military resources, it is a member of NATO.

Wishing you as always, good trading,

129

Predicted Daily price Range for Gold :
high:1203.89
Low :1192.42

130

Predicted Daily price Range for Gold :
high:1201.79
Low :1194.30

looking to add another short around 1198/1200

131

On To Thanksgiving

Two currents were pushing gold prices around today.

The first, and most important for us in the long term is that a raft of data from the U.S. economy came in shaky at best. Consumer sentiment, housing and manufacturing declines sent red flags flying, raising concerns that the world’s biggest economy is losing momentum in the final few months of 2014.

We will see soon how this translates to the early December numbers, which will include employment stats.

The second current we contended with today was the four-day Thanksgiving weekend in the United States (which includes New York!)

Traders and investors with any degree of seniority or security were headed for the airports, trains stations and highways by noon. Those types will not be back in their ****pits until Monday. Yes, there will be trading Friday, an abbreviated session on tap. But don’t expect any big moves unless one of those mysterious Asian trades pops up.

We look for the dollar to recover some strength next week. If the U.S. is just experiencing a speed bump, the dollar will re-start its assent.

During this holiday, in which the lucky and the diligent celebrate their bounty, let’s not forget those who need help.

Onward.

Happy Thanks giving and …
Wishing you, as always good trading,

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Predicted Daily price Range for Gold :
high:1197.59
Low :1181.59

134

sold aonther @ 1183

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Closed 2 of my gold shorts at 1167

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my target for gold before year end is $1098oz
and my target for 2015/2016 $850oz

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Looking to add another gold short on next bounce up,

139

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/swiss-voters-reject-snb-gold-referendum-srf-projections-show.html

Looking to short gold on open if it’s not gapped to big swiss referendum rejected gold vote,

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Okay I added a few shorts at 1151 tp 1098

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excellent price to add more shorts in fact it bounced of daily high today witch was 1185

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Predicted Daily price Range for Gold :
high:1185.47
Low :1158.19

143

Lots of action today!!!

144

Wow! Was not expecting this! This is nuts!

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When No Reason Finds Real Reasons

The bulls took command today, as the moment of truth about the direction of gold came to hand after a long, slow holiday in the U.S. Part of the bullish momentum was provided by a faltering equities market, although those recovered somewhat in the late-afternoon.

NASDAQ was the biggest loser, but strangely, given the rise in gold, the DOW is only down a third of a percent and the S&P down only by 0.75%.

Additionally, the dollar is softer, but only by a very slim margin against the euro. Throwing us into further confounding waters, the 10-year bond yield, which had been down to 2.15%, has recovered modestly.

The simplest way to describe the action in gold is to say there was strong short covering, but that isn’t quite enough. We feel the market had been oversold earlier in November only modestly, but by the month’s end – especially because of the conflicting messages thrown off by the Swiss gold referendum, which failed – the price of the yellow metal became truly depressed, and, although it seems funny to say, traders became depressed, too.

Finally, low levels were reached that triggered automatic contract buying. And it worked.

There were a couple of other pieces of news affecting gold today, some of serious longer-term import.

Moody’s cut Japan’s bond rating and that sent money scurrying into safe havens. This occurred while we are all still uncertain of Europe’s economic growth status, headed by the core three, Germany, France and Italy. As they go, so goes the euro-zone. The news today in Europe said those three economies contracted last month.

On top of that, two key manufacturing growth gauges in China were very weak, although expansion did continue. Those readings were disappointing to markets.

Black Friday sales were off 11% from last year, which also had an effect on stocks and haven demand. However, that effect will be short lived. Black Friday has slowly been turning into Black November, a whole month of sales, promotions and nattering from your favorite media source. In other words, the specific day – Friday – is no longer as important in consumers’ approach to finding bargains.

Finally, Citibank issued an assessment today that said they expect the average price of gold in 2015 to be $1220. We touched that average today and are trading only $7 to $8 off it.

Wishing you as always, good trading,

146

About Face

Gold pulled back today in the face of stronger equities, a solid rise in the dollar and new weakness in oil. It is a good time to remind ourselves, though, that gold is up 2-1/4% in the last month. We’re going to have to ascertain where our trends lie for the remainder of the year and into the New Year.

Stocks were up on the power of new car sales. U.S. automobile sales rose 4.6 percent in November to 1.3 million, Auto data reported, with the auto sales rate coming to 17.2 million last month, the strongest pace for the month since 2003. The strong sales reflect, despite some shakiness in consumer confidence that the American economy is hitting on all cylinders, the recovery remaining broad-based and modestly deep.

This notion was reinforced by construction spending, which was up 1.1% on the month. The key to the robustness of that number is that spending seems to have shifted away from home building to larger projects like office buildings, factories, hospitals and schools.

It’s quite natural that the dollar would find muscle in these numbers. The dollar is at a 4-1/2 year high. Certainly that is helping to pressure all commodities, but gold and oil, in particular are suffering price volatility.

While we should be happy as consumers that the prices of oil and gasoline are falling, we need to remain aware that the oil industry accounts for 30% of all capital construction and equipment in the U.S. Will that be transferred elsewhere? A good question.

Some are saying that the price dip we saw today in gold is a “corrective pullback.” We feel gold is returning to its natural course in a booming economy. Whether Europe, Asia, and the second-world economies like Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa make up the slack by buying remains to be seen.

Wishing you as always, good trading,

147

Another Reversal

Unusually, gold took its cues from a powering-up U.S. economy. This at first seems counterintuitive.

On second glance, though, with other economies struggling, a fundamental inclination toward haven buying is in place. We should also be aware that, to many in Europe and Asia, the U.S. equities appear oversold. Thus, though not robust, there was more gain than loss in European and Asian stocks, but much of that buying was due to bargain hunting and opportunism as opposed to the New York exchanges, which are seeing “natural” bullishness.

Gold, too, felt the push of short covering, many feeling that yesterday’s minor sell off was, even at its modest level, too much.

On the other side, due to the good news issuing from the American economy, the dollar rose and that nicked some of gold’s strength today. The dollar seems to grow more powerful by the moment. We are wondering, though, if a correction in reaction to the rampant speculation is due soon.

A note of warning on today’s equities rise. There is a lot of book balancing as the year moves toward a close and some traders will dump one stock and buy another to show better performance on their ledgers. Also, many of the day’s biggest movers on Wall Street were infrastructure related. The drumbeat for investment in that area has been growing. President Obama added his strong opinion to the drumming today.

As confounding as gold’s noteworthy move today was, the split personality in oil is even more bewildering. WTI crude was up not quite 0.75%, but Brent was down about the same. The differential between the two prices on trade is narrowing. We may be looking at a new normal with oil, in general, but certainly on that price convergence.

As if to underscore the point, the price of gasoline in Oklahoma City fell below $2.00 per gallon today. This is not the kind of Christmas gift Comrade Putin was looking for.