Hi)Below is the weekly chart of EURUSD at at at two year old support zone .Price reversed from this point many times before,but now with the strong down trend i think price will go down further and will ignore this support zone.What do you guys think?
Fundamentals suggest that it could break sooner or later. Maybe further easing from the ECB could do the trick or commitment to hike rates from the Fed?
Well i won,t go into the fundamentals because i am a price action trader ,yea according to my own analysis it will break the support zone.I am out of the short trade with 48 pips profit anyway.
I think we may drift a bit lower and while I turned bearish on the Euro overall I think we have seen the bulk of the selling. I am now looking at a level between 1.2600 and 1.2640 as next support. Dangerous to buy the dips right now in my opinion. I am looking to short rallies until we drop another 100 pips from here at which point we will see what’s going on.
IMO I think we are on the way to at least the 1.25 zone. Quite possibly 1.2 by end of year. Bro, just keep trading what you see.
I agree with your point thelastbear. thank you.
As long as MF protective pivot is not broken the wave down (i.e. Trend down) will proceed.
IF (or When) MF protective pivot will be broken - a new cycle will start, and we will have to go from there (with new Reference points).
Like your work , very easy to see what you are seeing. But can we sum up what you said as the price will continue down if it doesn’t go up.
It is always like that 
If the price does not go up, it will go down (i.e.: trend down). AND if it is not going down - it will go up (i.e.: trend up)
You and me (and any other professional trader) knows, that market can turn-around ANY time.
And the eternal question, that any trader tries to find answer for - is: [B]where is that “breaking-point” ?[/B]
So … to rephrase what I wanted to say on my picture above:
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As long as the “MF pivot point” is NOT broken (important: MF pivot moves with the price) - I will be doing ONLY “sell” trades. And I will not even think to open any “buy” orders.
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For me “MF pivot” is that “breaking-point” that shows me exactly in what phase is the market right now (trend down, trend up, or flat)
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Also when I have a position open (as in this case) - and I don’t know exactly how far will the price go (I don’t need to know to be honest - let the market analysts predict where it will go. I’m just a trader
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But still … I want to get the maximum out of this trend! MF pivot will help me again As long as it is not broken - trend down will proceed and I don’t need to close my trade-position to early
p.s.: I do “intraday trading” and some times (if I’m “lucky”) I leave some of my intraday position fractions for MID- and Long-Term trends
G’day Bro,
Think we have pretty much the same philosophy. I agree that currently there’s plenty of room for the price to go either way and I’m not going to waste my time trying to predict that either. I do trade to my market bias (which is bearish) and on a clean monthly chart have no reason to think any difference. Overlay Fib levels and a couple of trend lines and I get some clear key levels.
The current one is at the 61.8 Fib level about 1.27850. Which is the level currently in question. History has shown that this is very strong level. If the price breaks below it on it goes for at least another 400 pips+ to 1.23220 where I have my upper level of what I call my support zone. The lower level is at 1.18760 June 2010 low. Again history has shown that the price can penetrate into this zone within 1 to 2 months after breaking through the 61.8 fib level. However 1.20000 is a very strong psychological level and it’s at the level I will look for a reversal.
Until then if the price does bounce of the 61.8 fib I will only consider it a correction until it breaks through the upper trend line where I have plotted my resistance zone. Then the final if, if it does I would call a reversal and we are back in an uptrend.
Interesting but that my 50 fib level matches your MF pivot.
But at the end of the day it takes a huge sustained effort from the markets to reverse a trend and I just don’t see where that effort is going to be generated from so I’m happy to call a prediction on this one.
All the best pip hunting bro
Bob
Well done Bob, I agree with you .
Thank you .