So about this time last year forcasters started talking 2014 year of the USD. And tehy probably got it right.
Now I see some reports that 2015 is being predicted as the year of the yen. Any thoughts?
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;662049”]So about this time last year forcasters started talking 2014 year of the USD. And tehy probably got it right.
Now I see some reports that 2015 is being predicted as the year of the yen. Any thoughts?[/QUOTE]
Interesting. Do you have a link to the reports you are referencing?
I’m at work currently bro so sorry no links but was researching articles at efxnews on the weekend and I got the impression than the yen might be a solid safe haven next year. Just opening it up as food for thought.
[QUOTE=“bobbillbrowne;662058”]I’m at work currently bro so sorry no links but was researching articles at efxnews on the weekend and I got the impression than the yen might be a solid safe haven next year. Just opening it up as food for thought.[/QUOTE]
Historically the yen does appreciate during times of equity market corrections, and it does look like a equity market correction could be on the books for the first half of 2015. Shorting the eurjpy would make the most sense.
However, the national pension fund is to be structurally re-balanced to allot for more foreign holdings in the portfolio. This will be a HUGE outflow into foreign assets (which means a huge flow into foreign currency). This in and of itself will be a big factor in keeping the jpy low for awhile.
Unless china growth dramatically slows and the euro zone formally falls into recession, the odds are the yen won’t see a huge rebound, rather a period of stabilization before the next wave of weakness.
Well, hello! GlobalMarco has a lot of valuable insights; however, putting it into more technical (and less fundamental) terms, all we have to watch is a continuation of the recent equities slump, which has now temporarily stalled: should true ‘fear’ shake off the markets into panic selling, then not only all equities (S&P500, DowJones, FTSE100, Nikkei225, etc.) but all Yen currency pairs would move in tandem, as one, to the downside, all being quite overexposed, historically. What goes up has to come down, and the markets will find any reason, whether rational or irrational, to initiate this natural correction: the catalyst could be anything seen or unforeseen, be it a small diplomatic incident, a foreign conflict, a famine, a global pandemic (e.g. Ebola)…
Ps: a freshly written article on this very topic…
Thought I’d boot this thread up again after recent events, any-one with any new views?
I’m thinking usdjpy hits 124 this year.
Hi again…
If USD becomes an ‘investment’ currency post-rate-hike, and with the CHF bust, and the Euro in QE mode, then the next reliable safe haven currency has to be the Yen…When? That is key.
USD/YEN could remain bullish.
AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY, are trading below the 200 day MDMA. GBP/YEN has also closed below it, but has bounced around it a bit lately. The equities correction is good for the yen and the huge swing brought on by Abenomics may be found to have been overextended.
The voices in my head are confusing and I think they are all saying the same thing: " Listen to more Panty Raid".
If indeed this is the year of the yen I will gladly trade with it.
I could not agree with you more, Arbitrager…
The NZD/JPY closed under the 200-day moving average last week, and yet I have not traded it: why?
Because the fundamentals (for global risk aversion) are not there yet, so it is unwise to jump in just
because we are twenty, or even forty pips below the 200-day MVA, or, at least, it is too soon to trade
if you are aiming for the huge potential to the downside that this pair offers… Similarly, something like
the EUR/JPY could have massive potential to the downside, so waiting and missing out on the first few pips
of a move worth a few hundreds or even thousands of pips is not going to harm, if it means having more
confirmation that this is risk aversion at play - massive deleveraging of global equities, carry trade, and various
risky assets.
I am watching on the sidelines, for now, but I have a plan in place should I see technicals marrying fundamentals
across most Yen pairs… The fact that Eur/Jpy is still buoyant in spite of Thursday’s events, whereas
the NZD/JPY has dropped massively, shows that we are not quite at that stage, yet… Only when all Yen-crosses
will align to the downside will it be true risk aversion in an unmistakable sense.
Here’s a quick chart of where some banks think some of the crosses will be at years end,
Initial it would seem all bad news for the yen. But when you have a look a their quarterly and monthly projections I see one of two scenario . First a group sees hawkish trading till mid year then the doves returning. The second group see a three steps forward to steps back movement.
Either way many opportunities for those who trade with their eyes.
A siren sang the same sentiment to me last night as I explored the cosmos.
[QUOTE=“Arbitrager on Acid;679553”]<img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> A siren sang the same sentiment to me last night as I explored the cosmos.[/QUOTE]
Then why didn’t the eurchf crash the day before the SNB dropped the floor…? 
EUR/CHF traded below the 200-day MA for a straight year before the crash.
CHF/JPY was in an uptrend for more than a year before it exploded two weeks ago.
GBP/CHF was trading above and below the 200-day MA in the two months before it crashed.
USD/CHF is the clear trick. It was in a strong upward move rising to 1200 pips above the 200-day MA over a 6 month period before it crashed. So there is the one you want to mention.
[QUOTE=“Arbitrager on Acid;679561”] USD/CHF is the clear trick. It was in a strong upward move rising to 1200 pips above the 200-day MA over a 6 month period before it crashed. So there is the one you want to mention.[/QUOTE] Usdchf was essentially an inverse eurusd during that period as they were almost perfectly inversely correlated with each other due to eurchf being mostly static.
Precisely, so it was more a EUR/USD price action than a USD/CHF.
Bro, stick to the thread title, where talking yen here. Seems a good month has made global a ****y player
There were a lot of funds and individual traders pressuring JPY before they rushed to save their positions on CHF 
JPY will experience some upturn, not sure how long it will last, but I believe this harassment suits Japan as the country is export-oriented…
Guys, is it just me, or are the major pairs experiencing some consolidation,)?