The market is overwhelmingly long with SLs below 1.20 and rightly so if the SNB is to be believed. However, EURCHF is within 10pips of the floor and definitely too close for comfort. There is also the gold initiative which I believe could end up being a non-event to a pair as stoic as EURCHF. We all know that most traders lose money so do you think EURCHF would crash 1.20 and the SNB would abandon its floor for the interim at least?
I think the probability is lower that the SNB can defend 1.20, but we can never know until we know, right? I think it’s a trade worth taking with a wide stop and very small position because of the potential for big volatility either way. My two pips.