I think the correction in the EURUSD is not warranted and that there is a big overreaction on the part of traders, but I took a neutral stance as I think the ECB will act in a way unfavorable to the Euro. It is a falling dagger. Should the ECB not act during their next meeting I may look for some very short-term buying opportunities, but with a very tight range on it.
We actually poked below the 2010 lows in this last session to see a level not seen since 2006 and one fewer pips away from 2004 levels (a new ten year low) than from Friday’s high. The last three primary bear moves averaged just under 3300 pips from peak to trough. If we get that on this one that lands the pair at 1.0700. The additional 700 pips to get down to par would make this primary move 4000 pips, which is 300 pips greater than the 2008 bear move on account of the financial crisis. It would still not be the biggest bear move in the pair at 200 pips shy of the 4200 pip bear move from October 1998 to October 2000. Stay short.
One thing alot of people have missed is that we have actually broken the 50 fib level on the monthly chart. Doom n gloom on the EU should mean easy pickings for us speculators.
Can the EURUSD reach parity? It could, anything can happen in the financial markets, but the EURUSD at 1.0000 could be possibel.