Hows it going guys. I wanted to bring something into the light and get some opinions on a future trade I intend on taking. I’m not sure how to add a poll to this or anything but I would be great to see what the overall retail traders opinion would be on the EUR/USD (I’ll say EU for short). I have read numerous articles and seen a lot of propaganda on EU shorts and how lots of finance sites etc are saying to continue shorting EU. This raises some what of a red flag to me, everyone knows that phrase 98% of currency traders in the long run lose their accounts or whatever… and that only the top 2% actually can make a profit long term. Well in my opinion 98% of the articles coming out are pro EU short. Sounds quite similar to what happened on Thursday. I saw an article saying 98% of oanda clients where on the wrong side of the trade. Not saying the EU is going to go up 2000 pips in a single day, I’m just curious about what members on this forums sentiment is. Assuming almost everyone is pro short or is short… Isn’t it almost time to long? I mean EU has been going short for quite a looong time now. It is bound to make some sort of retracement in the not so distant future. I don’t know if going into this week, this is the bottom of the trend or not. EU could continue to slump even lower. Regardless, I’m looking to buy EU soon. She is just sooo cheap! Also take into consideration… there really are no significant levels until around the 1.18 area… that’s several hundred pips to gain with little resistance. Sounds like a win win to me. Low Risk, High Reward. Anyhow, if you where me, what would you really be looking for to to assure that the timing is good to go ahead and buy EU… I’m becoming more of a long term trader nowadays so I would be holding the position from anywhere from a few days to a few weeks depending on price action. Also I am very short USD biased this year as well. Some food for thought. Let me know what you guys think.
I will continue to short the EURUSD until such a time and the trend appears to be broken and do not see that as happening any time soon given the ECB is looking to commence quantitative easing while the FED is looking (although appears to be delayed somewhat) to raise the rates.
If you want to know if you should go long or short in the medium term all you have to do is wait for the ECB announcement on Thursday which should give you all the information you need.
Many people are calling for parity in the EURUSD during 2015 so on that basis it has a lot longer to run (many people also have no clue what they are talking about but that is the name of the game I guess).
I am by no means trading basis fundamentals and I go in and out to take short bites out of any given trend however I see absolutely no reason to start calling a bottom in EURUSD either from a fundamental nor technical point of view at this point in time, all subject to the ECB decision on Thusday of course 
I’m thinking we would see a classic sell the rumour buy the fact. With SNB withdrawing their euro support and an 8% EURUSD fall in the past 4 weeks, draghi and co may decide that for market stability, they should hold off their taps for one more month. But i’d be waiting for draghi’s move.
I hold no value to what retail traders think. I do care about what banks think
Now whats possible vs probable and which side is my bias. Still short all the way.
Over the years i have listened to the “big boys” predictions for the eur/usd and have come to the conclusion that usually they dont have a clue either. It only takes one event or our friend Draghi to start manipulating the media and boom.
How were we at 1.40 a few months ago??? On friday we saw 1.1460.
Remember the days of the way up 1.26 1.28 1.32 etc then everyone going short at 1.36 and it kept going up, accounts getting busted at 1.38).
1.40 was the final straw for Draghi.
If you are playing the long term game now Leg0nd, wait for confirmation, don’t try to predict it. Lower can always go lower. My short on eur usd is up just under 200 pips now 1/4 of my usual position size, given it a 100 pips breathing room…no biggie if it busts out.
Good to see you back, Leg0nd…
I agree with all of the above: if you are playing this long-term, a reversal will take time… Never try to catch a falling knife (advice to myself, as well). I had hopes for a EUR/GBP comeback, for example, but it never really materialised, or at least not yet… If you have gone into long-term positioning, you will know how it is all about sitting around looking, waiting, and reading… In fact, it is not very exciting at all, in the sense that there is not much ‘trading’ going on… Maybe you will put on ten, maybe five trades a year… Hardly fast-and-furious!!
Don’t forget the Greek election (25th I think).
Most people are expecting a Greek exit and two fingers to their debts.
I went long on cable during the Scottish vote expecting to wake up to a bull market with confidence restored. Little did I know David Cameron was going to start demanding more power for the rest of the UK…cue less confidence and a bear market.
My point is, regardless of any ECB measures or Greek votes, the fact that we are discussing it means there isn’t much confidence around this pair so I’m going to continue shorting for the foreseeable future.
How’s it going man? I’m glad to be back. I agree with you, never try to catch a falling knife. I’m still very interested in buying the EU, but I do agree right now is not the best time. However, I am patiently waiting for the signs of a reversal. The ECB meeting Thursday as well as European unemployment rates could be a game changer. Also, the US Fed could raise interest rates at anytime in the near future… That would cause a big shift in the currency market as well.
I have also heard many talk about EU hitting parity. Could be plausible as well. As far as price goes, and by looking at support levels, around the 1.0860 level might be the closest viable place for a reversal. Any other prices come to mind?
As far as the chart goes, I find it rather interesting that only a handful of those banks predict EU to appreciate this year. Very interesting find
Do you have such a chart for 2013 and 2014?
We could compare and see how smart those bank analysts actually are.
I dont think it is a good idea to get long on the EURUSD yet. However, if the ECB dissappoints, the pair may rally.
Hi Leg0nd,
I have heard about parity - especially on PowerTrading Radio, for example, but not only…
The thing about that and about my own forecasts for EUR/GBP (see my article on ForexCrunch.com) is
that they can become number plucked out of the air, in the sense that when you forecast too far into
the future you are putting yourself into dangerous territory… The future is unknown twelve hours away
as much as twelve months, but at least when you are looking at price levels that have recent examples of
interaction with the market then you can sample their strength or weakness and project it into the future:
in the EUR/USD case, the 1.20 floor was as much of a psychological floor as that same number was for
EUR/CHF until last Thursday… What both currencies have done with that level shows that when the
market goes past the last known ‘big’ level, and the one that has been preoccupying most of the market
for months, what do we look at? In other words, we now have a gap of recent (meaning, in the last decade)
price history dealing with anything below 1.20 in EUR/USD, so there is no reference point, only a big void:
sure, we could fill it with a fifteen-year-span series of Fibonacci retracement levels, but what use would
that be other than for our own sense of putting pegs around a price history void? The EUR/USD price is
plunging and there is no sense of it stopping at (or caring about) any long-term Fib levels: this has gone
much beyond all former technical levels, and is just plummeting… It would be the same situation that we
could be faced with if all the Yen crosses started seriously pulling back (and some of them already have,
like the CAD/JPY, for example), and pierced through all the various levels of ‘psychological barriers’ that
we had set in place to divide the plunge down into degrees of severity: when we run out of levels/barriers
to throw at a plunging pair, like a seriously deleveraging Yen-cross pair on a massive sell-off of historic
‘carry’ positioning, what do we do? Do we try to pick a bottom and hope for the best (the 'it cannot go any
lower’ thought) or do we accept that it could be a case that nobody really knows how far this will stretch,
as it is unchartered territory? If the latter, we would better stay off that trend, because it could be toxic:
best to wait and see how the market reacts to that diving pair, and not try to jump on the sell-off too late
or without a plan (i.e. based on mathematical levels made by ourselves with no historic basis)!
I like long-term charts from FXtop.com but when you look at EUR/USD you cannot go as far back as
the USD/JPY, for example, because the Euro is only a relatively young currency, so your exchange rate
value past a certain date would just be derivatives from the EEC, therefore not 100% comparable to
price history following the birth of an official Euro/USD exchange rate… However, I do find that looking
at older currency exchange rates, like the USD/JPY, fifty years to the present day, gives me a sense of
how fare we may be into ‘unchartered’ territory, really, or whether it is just a case of zooming out of the
average chart software span, to spot what are actually common/major demand/zone levels on longer-term
periods and/or cycles…
In terms of the EUR/USD, the (excellent) thread on Forextown that has followed the EUR/USD plunge in the
last few months is filled with predictions by various people (including me) and it is an interesting study in
human psychology, as traders try to forecast what the future may hold, and act accordingly: whether their
forecast, or the community’s consensus on that forecast, are anything more than a hypothesis, is hard to
say, as some predictions/projections are proven true by history, and others, like in the case of EUR/CHF
(and the perceived opportunity of buying at that 1.20 floor in the hope of a long retracement up of the
long down-trend), are completely blown apart… It does not mean that the ones that failed were just
plain wrong: maybe, they were just unlucky…
These are my thoughts, in answer to your question about levels for EUR/USD…
Happy trading.
PS: one could generically say, but without necessarily making predictions from it - and more as an observation of past price -
that the 1.20 - 1.22 zone was the mid-way point between the 2000 low (around 0.82 - 0.83) and the 2008 high (around 1.59);
if you rounded up those levels, you would have 0.80 / 1.20 / 1.60, which would give you a span of 4,000 pips: this would not
mean that we were heading for 0.80(+) area, but it is certainly a beautiful reminder that symmetry and pattern recognition
is part of being human, but not necessarily what makes the markets move (in other words: beware of beautifully symmetrical
cycles on a chart: the market may or may not respect our chart scribblings)!